An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
We look for a range between 1.9463-80 and 1.9620
Daily Bullish:In fact 1.9677 capped and we saw losses from there. However, we note support between 1.9463-80 and tend to feel this will support for a correction higher. A move back above 1.9532 will assist higher with next resistance at 1.9550 and 1.9580. At the most we expect the 1.9620 area to cap (max 1.9640). Thus, only above 1.9642 would extend to 1.9677 and probably further to 1.9715 and 1.9746.MT Bullish:We doubt now that we’ll see any strength above 1.9620-42 and thus a bullish stance will need break here which would extend to yesterday’s high and then through the 1.9746 high en route 1.9812 min. (February 16th)Daily Bearish:The break below the 1.9552-74 area has caused losses to just above 1.9494 and we feel that while 1.9532 caps there is still chance we may see this extend to 1.9463-80, but this should hold. Thus a stronger bearish stance requires a break below 1.9463 and if seen will bring further pressure back to the 1.9387-00 area. MT Bearish:We now expect the 1.9620-42 area to cap and from there a move back below 1.9400 is expect to reach the 1.9260 low and probably lower. (February 16th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
The expanded flat pattern appears to have been correct. This should force a move back to the 1.9746-49 high (a 66.67% correction to the Wave –a- decline) to complete Wave –b- and thus Wave –c- should develop from there.
The only alternative we can see is that we are seeing an irregular triangle in which case we would see direct losses to around 1.9450, a correction to complete the triangle and then lower.
It looks like the irregular triangle is developing. This has support around 1.9463-80 and resistance at max 1.9620-42 from where we expect the next leg lower to develop.
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