[B]An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary[/B]
[B]Bias:[/B]I suspect a test of the 1.3827-32 area before a decline but would respect a break of 1.3730-50
[B]Daily Bullish:[/B]Tight ranges persisted on Friday though price found a high between the 1.3807 and 1.3827 resistance levels highlighted. The days of tight ranges have caused the wave structure to be a little uncertain but I tend to feel that we should stick to expecting a test of the 1.3827-32 area but which I think will cap. Thus a stronger bullish stance will require a break above 1.3832 and if seen would accelerate the upside to 1.3858 and then through to the next major resistance at 1.3932. Next resistance is at 1.3996-1.4016.[B]MT Bullish:[/B]The progress towards the ultimate 1.40-41 target has been good. We should see a pullback from 1.3827-32 but while price remains above 1.3600 the eventual target remains. ([B]July 12th[/B])[B]Daily Bearish:[/B]Finding the right wave structure within these tight and erratic ranges is tough. I am erring more to the bearish side now but feel that a test of the 1.3827-32 area probably has the edge. Thus from that resistance or a direct break below 1.3730-50 look for the downside to come under pressure. Possibly this 1.3730-1.3830 range will hold today. Below 1.3730 allows the downside to move further towards 1.3698 and probably 1.3660 which is likely to cause a pullback (while I can’t rule out a reversal higher from there.) [B]MT Bearish:[/B]The 1.3827-32 area should be good for a short position for losses to 1.3600-50 but that’s the most I expect at this stage. Only below 1.3566 would trigger stronger losses directly. ([B]July 11th[/B])
[B]ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS[/B]
Price edging higher to 1.3813 doesn’t really clear up the picture too well but maybe it takes out the scenario looking for a shallow pullback to 1.3730 again. This leaves us still looking at the peak in Wave (iii) and I still feel the bias is towards testing the 261.8% projection in Wave (iii) at 1.3827-32 which is also where Wave © will equal Wave (a).
From there we should be expecting a pullback to a 38.2% retracement level at 1.3655 at least (also a pivot support) while with Wave (ii) being shallow it would suggest a more likely Wave (iv) target at the 50% retracement around 1.3600.
Only directly above 1.3832 would target the daily 61.8% Wave (v) target at 1.3932 min.
[li]FX-Strategy Pro Commentary[/li]Possibly the best analysis available[/ul]