Pro Commentary Lite 16th March 2006

An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary

Price: 116.87

Bias:Mixed – waiting for breaks
Daily Bullish:No pullback but a rally that stalled just a few points below the minimum target at 117.81. The pullback this morning has been moderately deep but we’ll not get too carried away with this until the 116.50-73 area is broken. While it remains intact there is risk of one final attempt back to the 117.81-00 area before capping. Only a clean break of 118.00-20 would cause follow-through above 118.48 and to 119.07.MT Bullish:Losses seen as anticipated and we feel there is risk of a pullback to 117.91-07. However, only above there would cause a retest of the 118.48 high and then possibly 119.18. (March 14th)Daily Bearish:The reversal from a few points below our lower target at 117.81 does warn of a possible reversal but being at a stage in the wave structure which can produce very erratic price behavior we do need to be cautious. There is support around 116.50-73 and only a clean break would extend the downside back towards the 115.95-05 support which we feel should support for a recovery. Only breach would cause loss of 115.75 and down towards the 115.16 low en-route 114.42 at least.MT Bearish:Yesterday’s low at 115.86 risks further sideways trading. Thus only below here and 115.54 would extend losses below 115.16 and to 114.43 at least. Next support is at 113.21-42.(March 14th)


15th March

The first move to 117.56 has occurred as an ABC pattern and now we expect a 50-61.8% retracement in Wave x before gains to the 117.81-00 target in Wave ^c.

16th March

The rally stalled 5 points below the low of the target range and it is unclear whether this satisfied Wave ^c. Break below the 61.8% retracement at 116.50 would appear to allow losses towards 115.95-05 which represents a possible 61.8% -66.67% projection in Wave ^d from where we’d expect a recovery in Wave ^e before further, stronger losses. Should 116.50-73 support there is still risk that we return to the 117.81-00 area in Wave ^c before the Wave ^d begins.
Ian Copsey
See Also

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