Pro Commentary Lite... 19th July 2007 ... USDCAD

An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
[B]Price:[/B] 1.0446

[B]Bias:[/B]I suspect we have seen the low and look for 1.0418 support to hold and far gains to 1.0496-1.0526
[B]Daily Bullish:[/B]We saw a brief dip that held at 1.0399 and I suspect this may have satisfied the decline. There is a small risk of some consolidation first and to confirm the next leg higher we shall need to see break above 1.0463 which should provide follow-through to 1.0496 at least. Take care here as this could cap. Next resistance is at 1.0526 and then 1.0556. [B]MT Bullish:[/B]I feel there is the chance that we saw the major low at 1.0399 and a break above 1.0496-1.0526 would cause an eventual move back to 1.0657 once again. ([B]July 19th[/B])[B]Daily Bearish:[/B]There appears to be a good chance that we saw the major low at 1.0399. However, given the potential bearishness of the Dollar in general we should remain aware of a break below the 1.0390 level which would open up stronger losses. Watch for a small correction from the 1.0366 level but overall the downside, once through that support should quite quickly move down through 1.0331 and 1.0315 towards 1.0255 at least. [B]MT Bearish:[/B]While we have seen losses I am not yet convinced these will continue without interruption. There is key support at 1.0393 and only breach here would maintain the downside for below parity. ([B]July 13th[/B])


[B]13th July[/B]

Continued losses have been seen back to the area of the 1.0443 low. I note that if we count the 1.0443 low as Wave a and the 1.0611 peak as Wave b then a wave equality target is at 1.0393 which is where a 38.2% expansion of the recovery from 1.0468 to 1.0657. This would imply an expanded flat and an eventual recovery back to 1.0657 again.

Only directly below 1.0390 would suggest follow-through in Wave [c] to 1.0366 minimum (wave equality with Wave [a]) and more likely to at least 1.0186 (161.8% projection) and I suspect lower to below parity.

[B]17th July[/B]
We should see the 1.0393 target today from where a recovery should be seen in Wave efc that should eventually target 1.0657.
[B]Ian Copsey[/B]
[B]See Also[/B]

[li]FX-Strategy Pro Commentary[/li]Comprehensive and insightful analysis[/ul]