An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
[B]Price:[/B] 99.70
[B]Resistance:[/B]100.10100.43100.72101.23[B]Support:[/B]99.3898.9498.6398.32
[B]Bias:[/B]While the 98.32-63 area supports there is risk to 101.17-23 but should then caps for a while
[B]Daily Bullish:[/B]The 96.67 support remained intact and finally saw a direct break above 97.73 which triggered much stronger gains than I had anticipated. It does seem to break the immediate downtrend. There should be just a little more to go. There is support at 98.63 (should allow for 98.32) and from here a move higher is possible to100.43 again – expect a small pullback before continuation towards 100.95-101.23 which I expect to cause losses again. Next larger resistance is at 102.15 and 102.55-65.[B]MT Bullish:[/B]Yesterday’s recovery was healthy and does appear to suggest additional stability. The initial upside is at 101.23. Only breach would extend gains to 102.15, 102.55-65 and 103.57-57. ([B]19th March[/B])[B]Daily Bearish:[/B]No losses yesterday and this should protect from new lows for now. There is support at 98.32-63 and until this breaks there is greater risk of seeing 101.23. If this higher resistance is seen first then it should be a good selling level. Back below 98.32-63 would imply a move back into the recent range with support then seen at 97.81 and between 97.51-68. Below there is the Fibonacci retracement at 96.82. If the pullback is particularly deep then also note 96.25 ahead of the 95.71 low. [B]MT Bearish:[/B]The recovery seen should prevent new lows for now. Watch support at 96.75 and 96.25 before the 95.71 low. If I am proven wrong and we see new lows then keep in mind the 95.00-20 area and then 92.90. ([B]19th March[/B])
[B]ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS[/B]
[B]19th March[/B]
I can’t say the wave relationships are particularly clear but on the assumption that the 95.71 low was merely Wave –iii- of Wave C then a 50% pullback is around the 101.17-23 area and this should hold and cause additional losses.
However, given the very brief Wave –ii- I am not convinced that losses will be seen to new lows directly in favor of a longer and more complex correction. A triangle will often retrace around 76.4% in the second leg and this would imply a move to around 96.75-00 depending on where the rally completes.
Only above 101.23 would begin to suggest we have seen the end of the larger downtrend.
[B]Ian Copsey[/B]
[B]See Also[/B]
[ul]
[li]FX-Strategy Pro Commentary[/li]Unique, insightful and comprehensive analysis[/ul]