Pro Commentary Lite ... 19th May 2008 ... USDCHF

An excerpt from Pro Commentary [B]Price:[/B] 1.0474

[B]Bias:[/B]While 1.0490-00 caps we should see losses to 1.0371-95 before recovering
[B]Daily Bullish:[/B]The downside did indeed provide more movement on Friday though the low seen doesn’t appear to be the final one for now. I suspect that we should see a decline to the 1.0371-95 area later today and from there we can expect a recovery. This correction should move back towards the 1.0490-00 resistance again. Only an earlier break through this resistance would imply a deeper pullback directly and if seen would imply a gains being seen to 1.0525 and at most 1.0559. Next resistance is then found at 1.0590-23. [B]MT Bullish:[/B][B]19th May:[/B] It may well be that the upside has run out of steam for now. Only an earlier break back above 1.0559 would provide a further attempt at the 1.0590-23 area – breach extends to 1.0695 & 1.0771-00. [B]Daily Bearish:[/B]The breach of 1.0546 saw losses through 1.0504-13 and all the way to 1.0430. I suspect this is not yet complete and while the 1.0490-00 area caps I still feel there is room for losses to reach the 1.0371-95 area. Take care here as I feel this will generate a pullback higher. Thus only breach of 1.0370 would extend losses to 1.0335 at least where care will again be required as a correction is possible. Below there sees support at 1.0276 and stronger at 1.0220. [B]MT Bearish:[/B][B]19th May:[/B] The risk that we have already seen a significant high at 1.0623 is stronger and this should produce a move to 1.0134 at least and potentially to 1.0018. Beyond here I need to review as the losses develop.

[B]19th May[/B]
This is a less obvious wave structure but there seems a strong possibility that we saw Wave –c- end at 1.0623. From there a Wave –a- at 1.0389 and a Wave –b at 1.0599. This produces a 138.2% projection in Wave –c- at 1.0276 and a 161.8% projection at 1.0220.
Within the decline from 1.0599 I suspect we are already in Wave a of Wave iii lower. Wave a looks as if it could reach the 103.71-95 area and after a pullback that should remain below 1.0490-95 we should then see Wave iii progress to the 223.6% projection at 1.0335 and possibly all the way to the 161.8% projection at 1.0220.
This structure needs some monitoring as the decline from 1.0599 is not particularly clear at this stage.
[B]Ian Copsey[/B]
[B]See Also[/B]

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