Pro Commentary Lite ... 20th February 2007 ... GBPUSD

An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary

Price: 1.9542

Bias:We do look for a recovery and favor the 1.9600-14 area to cap but be careful at 1.9580 also
Daily Bullish:Losses seen as expected but these moved a little lower than anticipated but found a low at 1.9429. We feel this is still part of a complex sideways correction and thus there should be one last attempt higher. Thus while 1.9470-00 supports a break above 1.9564 should allow a final attempt at 1.9600-14 which we feel should cap. Thus a more bullish stance will require a break above 1.9614 and then 1.9641. If seen look for a swift move back up to 1.9746 and possibly 1.9812. MT Bullish:We doubt now that we’ll see any strength above 1.9620-42 and thus a bullish stance will need break here which would extend to yesterday’s high and then through the 1.9746 high en route 1.9812 min. (February 16th)Daily Bearish:Although the losses seen yesterday were slightly stronger than expected we still feel this works within a bearish pattern. However, the first move looks to be higher to the 1.9600-14 area. While this caps a move back below 1.9540-65 should extend the losses back to the 1.9400-29 area initially. Next support is at 1.9331. MT Bearish:We now expect the 1.9620-42 area to cap and from there a move back below 1.9400 is expect to reach the 1.9260 low and probably lower. (February 16th)


16th February

It looks like the irregular triangle is developing. This has support around 1.9463-80 and resistance at max 1.9620-42 from where we expect the next leg lower to develop.

20th February

What looks to be Wave ef^d dipped a little lower than expected to 1.9429 and thus we feel that if this pattern is correct then we shouldn’t see a move more than 61.8%-66.67% back in Wave ef^e to 1.9600-14. Note a 76.4% projection lies at 1.9641. From this next peak we should then see a move back lower in Wave –c- that should initially move to 1.9400.

Ian Copsey
See Also

[*]FX-Strategy’s Pro CommentaryA service for GFT account holders[/ul]