Pro Commentary Lite ... 20th June 2007 ... USDCAD

[B]An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary[/B]

[B]Price:[/B] 1.0622

[B]Bias:[/B]Care – waiting for breaks
[B]Daily Bullish:[/B]The degree of losses came as a complete surprise…. If I am to make any bullish structure out of this then the 1.0588-00 area needs to hold. From this area we then need a break back above the 1.0640-45 pivot area and if seen I think we’ll see an equally strong recovery back to 1.0751-57 again initially and while that should produce a correction the next move higher should follow on…[B]MT Bullish:[/B]The expected break higher came a little earlier than anticipated and should continue towards 1.0808-43 at least en route 1.1005 and probably 1.1067. ([B]June 19th[/B])[B]Daily Bearish:[/B]The break back below 1.0690 came as a surprise and has caused a decline through 1.0626-50 and is approaching the 1.0602 low. We should also allow for a test of 1.0588. Thus, before getting too bearish I’d prefer to see a move below the 1.0588 corrective low and once seen it should cause a retest of 1.0547 and probably extension beyond that. Next support is then found at 1.0469-99. [B]MT Bearish:[/B]Yesterday’s sharp decline cannot be ignored but only below 1.0588 would suggest we are seeing the resumption of the downtrend below 1.0547. Beyond exercise caution at 1.0469-99. ([B]June 20th[/B])


[B]20th June[/B]

The loss of 1.0690 seems to suggest that we are seeing a flat correction and should therefore see a retest of the 1.0602 low (max the 1.0588 corrective low.) While this holds we should then see a return to the 1.0751-57 area in a new Wave a to be followed by a Wave b before higher again.

Any loss of 1.0588 would suggest a very shallow Wave [iv] – or an expanded flat with 38.2% expansion at 1.0469.

Below that is very bearish for an eventual test of parity.
[B]Ian Copsey[/B]
[B]See Also[/B]

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