[B]An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary[/B]
[B]Bias:[/B]Slightly mixed – thus wait for breaks but I still prefer a more bearish stance for now
[B]Daily Bullish:[/B]The 165.05-24 area held attempt lower and have caused a return to just below the 166.11 peak. However, the pullback has been deep and may suggest another leg lower first. Thus to see a direct recovery we shall need price to break back above 165.64 and this should cause a test of 164.84-87 at least. It is above this higher resistance that is needed to confirm additional gains above 166.11 and onto 166.80 at least and I suspect to 167.77-97. [B]MT Bullish:[/B]Pullbacks are so shallow that the wave structure is tough to recognize. I can see some projected targets around 167.77-97 and then stronger at 168.36-50. ([B]June 19th[/B])[B]Daily Bearish:[/B]No break of 165.00-05 and thus we are still waiting. If there is to be further losses – which I’d prefer – then we require the 165.64 resistance to hold and then a move back below 165.42 and 165.19 would allow a test of the major support between 164.52-74. Only below here and then 164.33 would begin to suggest there could be a stronger pullback lower. Next support at 163.60.[B]MT Bearish:[/B]The downside has been destroyed and I am awaiting a stronger reaction to identify the wave structure. However, now only below 163.65-95 would trigger immediate losses. ([B]June 18th[/B])
[B]ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS[/B]
I have reviewed the wave structure and feel there is a chance that 166.11 may well have been Wave iii of Wave –c-. This would imply a correction back to the 50%-58.6% retracement at 164.33-60 before Wave v rallies.
I still think Wave iv is under development and continue to watch the 50%-58.6% retracement at 164.33-60. I note that if 165.19 was Wave a and 166.01 was Wave b then the 138.2%-161.8% projections in Wave c lie between 164.52-74.
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