Pro Commentary Lite ... 22nd February 2007 ... USDCAD

An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary

Price: 1.1612

Bias:While 1.1620-44 caps there still appears to be risk for additional losses to 1.1526-31
Daily Bullish:In the end the 1.1715 high completed the correction higher and caused stronger losses. We suspect the 1.1620-44 area should be tested but is expected to cap. Thus a more bullish stance will require a break above 1.1644 and if seen would generate follow-through higher once again for 1.1686-90 at least. Care advised here as this could cause a pullback. MT Bullish:Losses seen again and we see these continuing to the 1.1526-31 area. As we approach this we shall assess the potential for a larger correction higher. Above 1.1686-1.1715 triggers earlier gains. (February 22nd)Daily Bearish:The 1.1715 peak capped and has caused losses all the way down to just above the 1.1585 pivot support. We see potential for a correction to the 1.1620-44 area but consider this capping for a further move lower towards 1.1526-31 which should complete this move lower. Only breach extends to 1.1466-91.MT Bearish:It would appear that the longer uptrend is complete and thus we need be looking for more bearish scenarios. At this point a move below 1.1636 threatens 1.1604 and potentially 1.1526. (February 15th)


21st February

It certainly looks as if we are seeing a move back to the 50%-58.6% retracement in Wave iv at 1.1734-54. While this caps we shall look for a Wave v to develop lower.

22nd February

In the end the 1.1715 peak acted as Wave iv and we have seen a decline to 1.1592 which we feel is Wave a of Wave v. While Wave b remains below the pivot resistance at 1.1620 and the 50% retracement at 1.1644 we look for the losses to reach the 66.67%-76.4% projection in Wave v at 1.1526-31.

Ian Copsey
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