An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
[B]Bias:[/B]Mixed – waiting for breaks
[B]Daily Bullish:[/B]We have seen extension to just above the 1.2103-06 resistance and this has caused a fairly sharp pullback stalling at 1.2040. This has either seen an end to the downside but this is not yet certain. To see the upside begin to develop again we require a break above 1.2071-90 and if seen it would begin to pressure the 1.2110 high again. Any breach extends to 1.2129 where care should be taken but I feel if this occurs the risk is for the upside to develop more quickly to 1.2215 at least and potentially 1.2260-65. [B]MT Bullish:[/B]Having seen the MT chart I am quite bullish. However, this may take a while to develop. Watch resistance at the 1.2213 high and also at 1.2265. Only above here would trigger gains to 1.2298 & 1.2392. ([B]22nd August[/B])[B]Daily Bearish:[/B]The peak at 1.2110 does still maintain the possibility of another decline. If this is to develop then we require a break below 1.2040 which would then pressure the 1.2011 low and while this could cause a small pullback the risk would then appear for the decline to reach the 1.1965 area which I feel will hold. (Should match with a test of 1.3599-05 Euro.) Only below 1.1946 takes the correction deeper to the 1.1908 area which is the most I would expect. [B]MT Bearish:[/B]I still feel the current decline is merely a correction and at most 1.1908 should hold. Thus only below 1.1900 would trigger a retest down towards 1.1814. ([B]23rd August[/B])
[B]ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS[/B]
Having looked at the weekly and daily charts I feel the 1.1814 low was Flat Wave b in the daily chart and thus we shall be looking for gains to develop back towards 1.2576+ eventually.
Within this we appear to have seen the end of Wave (i) at 1.2213. Now we need to establish Wave (ii) and I am in two minds but feel this may be quite long either as an expanded flat with a peak at 1.2265 and base back down around 1.1950-65 – or as an immediately deeper correction to the 76.4% retracement at 1.1908, possibly within a triangular Wave (ii).
Thus we need to observe the next move to try and establish the right pattern.
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