Pro Commentary Lite 25th April 2007 ... GBP USD

An exerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary

Price: 2.0029

Bias:Mixed – waiting for breaks but still cautiously prefer a bearish stance
Daily Bullish:Price held above the 1.9951 support and this tends to suggest potential for a complex correction and a retest of 2.0068-74. However, we should allow for a more erratic sideways consolidation. Thus to generate a more bullish stance we need to see the 2.0030 resistance break followed by 2.0075. If seen the pressure will be for a retest of the 2.0131 high. Take care there. Only above extends to 2.0200-25 at least.MT Bullish:The decline from 2.0131 has been positive but not enough to confirm a reversal. Thus only a break above 2.0138 would imply stronger gains initially to 2.0225 and eventually to 2.0504. (April 20th)Daily Bearish:No break of 1.9951 but we tend to feel this suggests a more complex correction that should remain below 2.0068-74. Earlier resistance is around the 2.0030 area. We still need to take care but to generate losses we require a break below 1.9960-67 and if seen it should cause follow-through below 1.9951 towards 1.9900-29. Again still take care there. Only breach would imply losses to 1.9863 and 1.9807.MT Bearish:We are beginning to feel more confident of the likelihood that 2.0131 formed a major high. However, still to be safe we require a breach of 1.9900 and if seen look for 1.9807 and possibly 1.9737. (April 24th)


24th April

Still no confirmation of the possible larger peak at 2.0131. However, we still note an alternative possible Wave iv at 1.9900-30 (being a 50%-58.6% retracement.)

The resistance at 2.0067 has held and this is bringing the bias to a more bearish stance and while the structure is not 100% clear we suspect that the original 1.9983 low was Wave –i- and the 2.0068 high was a 58.6% retracement in Wave –ii- and thus we can expect extension in Wave –iii- to the 138.2% projection at 1.9863-86 at least and we suspect this could go to the 223.6% projection at 1.9737.

Only back above 2.0068-93 would revert to a bullish structure.
Ian Copsey
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