Pro Commentary Lite ... 25th July 2007 ... USDJPY

An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
[B]Price:[/B] 119.89

[B]Bias:[/B]Break below 120.32 should see losses proceed to 119.53 and later towards 118.65-89
[B]Daily Bullish:[/B]The break of 120.32 appears to be bearish and therefore the upside should be limited. If we see a direct decline down to 119.53 that may well cause a pullback. To see this progress we shall need a break back above the 119.95-120.05 area and if seen it would assist price back to the 122.40 pivot area and possibly as far as the 120.80 pivot resistance which should cap. Only above triggers stronger gains towards 121.55 and 122.05. [B]MT Bullish:[/B]With break of 120.32 we need wait and look for reversal signs. For the moment only back above 120.80-00 would provide a more solid sign of recovery. ([B]July 25th[/B])[B]Daily Bearish:[/B]The break of support at 120.32 has indeed allowed extension to 119.92 and a few points below. I see potential to 119.53 but watch this carefully as this could provide a temporary correction higher. Thus a stronger bearish stance will require a move below 119.50 and then 119.27 to take price down to the 118.65-89 area which should provide support for a correction. [B]MT Bearish:[/B]The wave structure is not too clear but I suspect this section of the decline should reach the 118.65-89 area but then cause a pullback. Only directly below would extend the downside towards the 115.16 lows. ([B]July 25th[/B])


[B]25th July[/B]

The expanded flat failed to hold at 120.32 and thus it looks like we are looking at a Wave –c- decline. We have reached the 119.92 wave equality target but the internal structure does seem to suggest that Wave –c- is complete – indeed I feel that we have either seen Wave iii of Wave –c- at 119.79 but more likely to occur at the 261.8% projection at 119.53. From there expect a correction that should find it hard to get back above the 50% retracement at 120.97 and probably fail around the 120.80 pivot area to complete Wave iv and signal a Wave v lower that would then target the 138.2% projection in Wave –c- around 118.89. (max the 161.8% projection at 118.25.)
[B]Ian Copsey[/B]
[B]See Also[/B]

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