Pro Commentary Lite .. 26th April 2007 ... GBPUSD

An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary

Price: 2.0032

Bias:Mixed – waiting for breaks but still cautiously prefer a bearish stance
Daily Bullish:Price stalled just below the 2.0068-74 resistance and may have completed the pattern we had been looking for. However, we still note one possible scenario that would cause a retest of this resistance. However, if we are to see a more bullish stance then we require break of 2.0074 and if seen it would heighten the risk of gains extending back to the 2.0131-38 area and probably through to 2.0200-25.MT Bullish:The decline from 2.0131 has been positive but not enough to confirm a reversal. Thus only a break above 2.0138 would imply stronger gains initially to 2.0225 and eventually to 2.0504. (April 20th)Daily Bearish:No break below 1.9960-67 but the test close to the 2.0067-74 resistance looks useful. While this resistance area continues to hold we need a break below 2.0003 to cause follow-through lower. If seen it should imply losses down to 1.9957 at least and possibly 1.9929. We still see the area between 1.9900-29 as important support and thus take care around here. Only a break of 1.9900 would cause larger losses to 1.9800 and possibly lower.MT Bearish:We are beginning to feel more confident of the likelihood that 2.0131 formed a major high. However, still to be safe we require a breach of 1.9900 and if seen look for 1.9807 and possibly 1.9737. (April 24th)


26th April

Still no confirmation of the possible larger peak at 2.0131. However, we still note an alternative possible Wave iv at 1.9900-30 (being a 50%-58.6% retracement.)

The resistance at 2.0067 has held and this is bringing the bias to a more bearish stance and while the structure is not 100% clear we suspect that the original 1.9983 low was Wave –i- and yesterday’s 2.0061 high was a 58.6% retracement in an expanded flat in Wave –ii- and thus we can expect extension in Wave –iii- to the 138.2% projection at 1.9856 at least and we suspect this could go to the 223.6% projection at 1.9730.

Only back above 2.0068-93 would revert to a bullish structure.

Ian Copsey
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