An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
[B]Bias:[/B]We need the 1.2164-83 area to cap to maintain a bearish structure for a return to 1.2010 initially
[B]Daily Bullish:[/B]The rally came quite strongly but has thus far stalled midway between the 1.2151-83 resistance. Indeed, this remains key resistance and before getting too bullish we shall require breach here to generate an extension higher 1.2232 at least where a pullback is possible. Next resistance is at 1.2274-00. [B]MT Bullish:[/B]We still haven’t see breach of the upper resistance at 1.2183 and this remains the key to any additional gains. If breach is seen then expect a return to 1.2348 at least and possibly 1.2425. ([B]July 26th[/B])[B]Daily Bearish:[/B]So far the pullback, while deep, hasn’t broken the upper 1.2183 resistance and this still needs to cap to generate a move lower. Back below 1.2105-15 will assist and then generate a move to the 1.2070-75 pivot support – breach then sees the 1.2010 area where a small pullback is possible. Next support is in the 1.1960-81 area. [B]MT Bearish:[/B]I still feel we need allow for a move to 1.2118-51 at least which should provide a good selling opportunity (stops above 1.2183) for losses below 1.1960 and to 1.1874-84 at least where I shall review. ([B]July 25th[/B])
[B]ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS[/B]
The anticipated recovery moved above the 50% retracement at 1.2151 but has remained below the 58.6% retracement at 1.2183. While this 1.2164-83 area caps in Wave (iv) we can then start looking for a decline in Wave (a) of Wave (v) towards the 1.1960-81 area again – probably to bounce from the prior resistance line.
Following that Wave (v) has potential targets between the 61.8% - 76.4% projection around 1.1776-1.1850.
Any earlier break above 1.2183 suggests a more complex sideways correction initially towards the 1.2232-60 resistance.
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