An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
Bias:Only back above 1.3618-30 would return price higher else below 1.3580 sees 1.3521-40
Daily Bullish:The break below 1.3634 indeed caused losses to the 1.3580-85 support as advised. There hasn’t been much of a recovery as yet and if we are to see direct resumption of the uptrend then we need a move above 1.3618-30. If seen look for a quick retest of 1.3666 and while this may see some pullback overall we’d be looking for a move through to 1.3754 at least. Next resistance is at 1.3787 and then 1.3831.MT Bullish:The breach of 1.3636 does seem to warn of a move to 1.3666-86 but only above here would allow direct resumption of the uptrend to the weekly targets between 1.3932 and 1.4184. (April 24th)Daily Bearish:Losses have been seen to the 1.3580-85 support. It is possible that this will allow resumption of the uptrend but we tend to feel that we may see price find it tough to overcome the 1.3620-30 area. From there the downside becomes at risk again with loss of 1.3580 signaling losses back to the 1.3540 low and possibly 1.3521. For now we feel this will hold. Breach brings a much more bearish picture. MT Bearish:The bounce from 1.3666 retains the possible deeper correction. However, for us to see a move down to the 1.3250-70 support we would need breach of 1.3521-40. (April 27th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
The reversal from 1.3540 could either mean the rally to 1.3664 was a Wave v to complete a daily Wave A - or we actually saw a daily Wave –a- at 1.3410 and Wave –b- at 1.3253 which would imply direct gains to the weekly target area between 1.3932 (61.8%) and 1.4184 (76.4%).
In the short term we note the 1.3666-73 resistance – the 1.3673 level being a potential minor Wave efb in an expanded flat from the 1.3636 peak. This would imply losses down to 1.3521-40 once again.
Thus the wave structure will be clarified either by a break above 1.3673 or below 1.3520.
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