An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
[B]Bias:[/B]Cautiously while 2.0505-34 caps I look for a second decline down to 2.0333-49 & at most 2.0289
[B]Daily Bullish:[/B]We did see a move down which ended just above the 2.0413 support from where we have seen a correction higher to 2.0561. However, the wave structure looks more bearish and I would prefer to wait for confirmation of gains for any bullish stance. There is resistance at 2.0505-34 which I feel should cap. Thus above here would extend the upside towards the 2.0561 high. Breach extends to 2.0586 – take care here – only through would confirm 2.0651 again. [B]MT Bullish:[/B]The peak at 2.0650 looks to have completed a short term peak but while price remains above 2.0351-74 (and max 2.0289) we should still see progress towards 2.0931. Also note resistance at 2.1155. ([B]July 25th[/B])[B]Daily Bearish:[/B]Losses through 2.0470-85 took price down to within 10 points of the 2.0413 support from where we have seen a recovery. However, I feel that pullback is complete and would like to see the 2.0505-34 resistance now cap to generate follow-through below 2.0423-48 and down towards 2.0349 where a pullback is possible. The final decline should either stall around 2.0333 – or possibly as low as 2.0289. [B]MT Bearish:[/B]I still retain the 2.0931 minimum target and at most 2.1155. In the mean time we should see a correction lower but only below 2.0289 would begin to threaten the uptrend. ([B]July 25th[/B])
[B]ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS[/B]
I feel we have seen a Wave a end at 2.04723 with the recovery to 2.0561 representing a 61.8% retracement. From there I feel we have seen a Wave –i- already and while Wave –ii- remains (preferably) below 2.0505 we should see additional losses. We should allow for 2.0534 also.
At the moment a Wave equality target in Wave c rests at 2.0333. We should also note the 38.2%-41.4% Wave (iv) retracement lies at 2.0351-74 and a 50% at 2.0289.
Overall we should see the uptrend continue to the 138.2% projection in Wave © at 2.0931 and maximum the 161.8% projection at 2.1155.
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