An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
[B]Bias:[/B]I suspect 1.1992 may hold for a break above 1.2030 to signal stronger gains
[B]Daily Bullish:[/B]With the 1.1960 support holding there is growing evidence of a stronger move higher. The first barrier has held – a down trend line from the 1.2213 peak which currently rests at 1.2030. This could cause a pullback to the 1.1992 area before attempting the trend line again – break of which should provide a test of 1.2079-87 en route a stronger move higher to 1.2110-16 and probably all the way up to retest the 1.2213 area once again. This should cap on first test.[B]MT Bullish:[/B]Although cycles are bullish we haven’t yet seen break above 1.2213. I suspect 1.1960-65 will hold but also note the 1.1908 & 1.1947 areas as support and while these hold we should progress above 1.2213-65. ([B]27th August[/B])[B]Daily Bearish:[/B]Failure to move below 1.1960 is warning that the downside may well be over. Thus, only while 1.2030 caps and causes a break below 1.1992 would the chance of one last dip cause a move back to 1.1960 and probably only as far as 1.1947 before a stronger reversal higher. Next support is at 1.1908. [B]MT Bearish:[/B]I still feel the current decline is merely a correction and at most 1.1908 should hold. Thus only below 1.1900 would trigger a retest down towards 1.1814. ([B]23rd August[/B])
[B]ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS[/B]
This Wave (ii) is taking a little longer than anticipated and we should keep in mind the 61.8% retracement at 1.1965, the 66.7% at 1.1947 and the 76.4% at 1.1908. With the dip to 1.1992 I still suspect we should see one last dip to the 1.1965 support and at most 1.1947 before we see the end of Wave (ii). Once this has been established I can define some targets in Wave (iii) but the first recovery should reach close to the 1.2213 high in Wave (a) of Wave (iii).
Cautiously I label the 1.1960 low as Wave (ii) with only minor chance of seeing 1.1947 first. Thus the first move higher should break above the 1.2030 trend resistance and onto the 1.2213 area to form Wave (a0 of Wave (iii).
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