Pro Commentary Lite ... 2nd August 2007 ... USDJPY

An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
[B]Price:[/B] 118.81

[B]Bias:[/B]While 119.15 caps the next move should be a decline to 116.83-00 before a sharper recovery
[B]Daily Bullish:[/B]Losses developed nicely reaching the 117.48-83 area from where we have seen a recovery all the way to 119.15. This is slightly deeper than normal and I suspect it is more a matter of reduced liquidity. Thus for a more bullish stance we shall need a break back above 119.15 which would pressure the 119.49 corrective high again and probably the 120.55-86 area – max 121.00-05. [B]MT Bullish:[/B]Sharp losses keep price under pressure here and only back above 120.30-73 would bring price back above 122.00 again. ([B]July 27th[/B])[B]Daily Bearish:[/B]The recovery from 117.48-83 encourages in recognizing the wave structure and this should mean the 119.15 peak should cap to be followed by further losses. A move below the 118.30-35 area should extend the downside back towards 117.58 again and while a pullback is possible from there the eventual target is down at 116.83-00 which should hold for a larger recovery. [B]MT Bearish:[/B]There has been an awful lot of consolidation but I cautiously retain a bearish stance for 117.48-83 initially and eventually to 116.83-00 before another period of consolidation. ([B]August 1st[/B])


[B]1st August[/B]

The wave structure has been frustrating as there is little relationship between the waves. On the basis that we are in the final few weeks of bearish daily & weekly cycles I have chosen to follow the apparent daily expanded flat correction from 122.18 with Wave efa down to 115.16 and Wave efb to 124.13.

Thus the decline should occur in 5 waves with Wave –iii- having a 176.4% projection at 117.01 and Wave –c- extending by 138.2% at 116.83. Wave –c- is messy but I feel a rather irregular Wave iii is under development that has a 261.8% projection at 117.83 and a wave equality target in Wave c at 117.48. Thus look for a move down to 117.48-83 and after a correction in Wave iv this should lead to a final decline in Wave v to the 116.83-00 area.
[B]Ian Copsey[/B]
[B]See Also[/B]

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