Pro Commentary Lite 2nd March 2007 ... AUDUSD

An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary

Price: 0.7845

Bias:Mixed – waiting for breaks
Daily Bullish:The break of the 0.7851 support appears to suggest a more bearish structure but this may not be direct. Indeed, we see reason to think that we should see the 0.7836 low hold (and if it breaks then 0.7821-23) and for a move back to the 0.7883-91 area. Take care here as this could hold for additional losses. Thus only above 0.7900 would see a stronger rise towards the 0.7945 high.MT Bullish:We have to be cautious about the bullish stance after yesterday’s move and only while 0.7851 supports and forces a move back above 0.7905 would we look for a test of the 0.7945-79 area before lower. (March 1st)Daily Bearish:Loss of 0.7851 has generated losses through to the 0.7836 level. This may well have caused a low and thus we need be cautious. Even if 0.7836 breaks there is still good support at 0.7821-23 which should cause a pullback. Thus a stronger bearish stance will require a break below 0.7820 and if seen should extend losses down to 0.7755 at last. MT Bearish:With the corrective nature of yesterday’s recovery we note the greater chance of a direct resumption of the downtrend but require a break of 0.7850 and then 0.7823 to see a move below 0.7696. (March 1st)


1st March

Yesterday’s recovery appeared to come in a triple three and thus raising the warning of a possible direct resumption of the move lower. Breach would take us down to a small 76.4% projection at the 0.7820-25 pivot area in a Wave a from where we should expect Wave b to recover. Back above 0.7893 allows the test of 0.7945-79.

2nd March

Break of 0.7851 does appear to have broken the possible bullish structure though we should keep an open mind. A 61.8% projection in the decline was seen at 0.7836 and there is a 76.4% projection at 0.7821-23. This should cause a pullback but only above the 50% retracement at 0.7891-00 should cause a stronger rally.
Ian Copsey
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