Pro Commentary Lite.. 30th March 2007 .. USDCAD

An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary

Price: 1.1579

Bias:While 1.1607-20 caps we look for losses through 1.1527 to 1.1486 and below
Daily Bullish:Tight range trading seen and this looks to be a small triangle which should therefore break lower. Thus only while 1.1567 supports and a break is seen back above 1.1620 would we look for a second recovery that should then test 1.1657 (max 1.1679) before lower again. Thus a stronger bullish view would require a break above 1.1680 and would then allow recovery to 1.1711 and possibly 1.1755-86.MT Bullish:The break down to 1.1527 provides a more bearish target. Thus only a break back above 1.1657-80 would provide an earlier reversal higher towards 1.1711 and 1.1755-86. (March 22nd)Daily Bearish:No break seen in either direction but this appears to be a small triangle and thus while the 1.1607-20 area caps we will cautiously retain a bearish stance and look for break of 1.1567 which would then cause a move below the 1.1527 low and onto 1.1486 at least. Care there as this could be a target in a complex correction (though we doubt.) Eventual target is around 1.1394-05.MT Bearish:While there is still a minor risk of seeing 1.1627-57 again we feel the downside looms and breach of 1.1557 and 1.1527 would allow a dip to 1.1486 and probably the 1.1394-05 target which should hold. (March 30th)


30th March

We tend to discount a triangle since Wave –ii- was long and deep which should mean that Wave –iv- should be shorter. This would actually suggest that 1.1553 was the Wave a low and thus after Wave b is complete we should see losses to the 138.2% projection in Wave C at 1.1394. However, we’d like to see 1.1599 cap for this.

At the moment we feel that the tight consolidation looks like a triangle and loss would allow extension to target at 1.1394. However, do watch out for a minor risk of the 38.2% expansion at 1.1486 holding – though again we doubt as again it would be unusual to have two complex corrections in Wave –ii- and Wave –iv-.
Ian Copsey
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