Pro Commentary Lite.. 30th May 2007 ... GBPUSD

An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary

Price: 1.9811

Bias:Care – I still see a risk of a move to 1.9921-40 before lower – only below 1.9770 sees direct losses
Daily Bullish:Well, that was a whippy day but didn’t see too much of a strong move in either direction. I still note the 1.9778-89 area remains intact and this may well mean we need a move above 1.9900 before the peak is seen. Take caution. Back above 1.9825 and then 1.9840-45 would generate further upward momentum for yesterday’s 1.9898 high and through to the 1.9921-40 area (max 1.9962) before peaking. MT Bullish:Still no real change but before getting too bullish we really need a move above 1.9940-62. Only if seen would the upside extend directly to 2.0073 and 2.0131. (May 30th)Daily Bearish:While we saw a minor new high the correction from there has not been too strong. Indeed I can see support around 1.9778-89 and while this holds there does seem to be an argument for a further attempt higher. Thus only a break of this support would generate stronger losses. Next support is at 1.9730 – care – and then down to the 1.9675 low. It should hold on first test but also take note of 1.9657. MT Bearish:We have seen a test of the 1.9675 target but I feel there should be more. While 1.9774-97 this can happen more directly. Below 1.9657 would see a move to the favored 1.9545-75 target support before higher. (May 22nd)


30th May

The marginal peak seen at 1.9898 is rather confusing but I suspect this may have been a small Wave v to complete Wave a. A 61.8%-66.7% retracement in Wave b comes in around 1.9775-84 and thus while this holds there is still risk of a move to a new high in Wave c. We should still note the 61.8%-66.7% retracement in Wave –x- around 1.9921-40 though a wave equality target of wave a does suggest 1.9962.

Thus the top is a little unclear but only below 1.9775 would cause a direct resumption in the downside and until then a move to the 1.9921-62 area is possible.
Ian Copsey
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