An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
Price: 1.3496
Resistance:1.34981.35191.35351.3565Support:1.34731.34541.34211.3391
Bias:We should see this move higher stall around 1.3516-19 for a pullback lower
Daily Bullish:Indeed we saw retest at 1.3475-80 but this quickly broke and we are now approaching the last major peak at 1.3519. From the manner of the rally and the importance of this 1.3519 peak I suspect it will cap for a pullback. Thus before getting too bullish wait for a clean break of 1.3519 and if seen it should then imply additional gains that should then move to the 1.3535 level at least – care to be take here also. Above sees the 1.3565-75 pivot area and at most 1.3600-26.MT Bullish:The risk that we have seen a major low at 1.3391 has increased but it would still be better to wait for a break of 1.3519. This would suggest that we see a move back towards 1.3600-26 and eventually 1.3681. (June 5th)Daily Bearish:The bearish pattern hasn’t completely broken down although with cycles turning higher there is a strong risk. For the moment I feel the 1.3516-19 area could well cap for a pullback. From this resistance area a break back below 1.3473 would provide room for a correction to 1.3421-54. Only a move below here would begin to bring the downside back into the frame. MT Bearish:Yesterday’s break above 1.3480 along with bottoming daily cycles doesn’t make the downside look quite so strong now. Only back below 1.3391 would now cause a spike to 1.3253-73 before higher again. (June 5th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
5th June
We have to accept the possibility that the daily correction didn’t really bite as deeply as I’d been looking for. The only alternative I can see is the chance that we are seeing an expanded flat Wave –b- which should allow a test of 1.3519 again and would then spurn a final ABC pattern lower to the 50% daily retracement at 1.3273 and at most the 58.6% retracement at 1.3203.
Within the rally from 1.3391 I can see evidence of a 5-wave move that would imply a small internal Wave v projection at 1.3516 – around the 1.3519 corrective peak. In a bullish structure this would be Wave –a- and should produce a correction in Wave –b- and then a Wave –c- towards the 1.3681 in Wave –i- of Wave (C).
Ian Copsey
See Also
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