Pro Commentary Lite ... 6th June 2007 ... USDCHF

An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary

Price: 1.2182

Bias:Cautious with minor risk for 1.2140-45 first but look for a correction higher towards 1.2245-66
Daily Bullish:The breach of the 1.2194-99 support came earlier than anticipated and does seem to set the larger picture as lower. The decline doesn’t have a clear structure but I do feel there is minor risk of seeing a dip to the 1.2140-45 area first. However, for the most part I feel we should be seeing a correction today and a move above 1.2207 should confirm additional gains to 1.2225 initially with breach causing a move to 1.2245 which I favor capping. However, also keep in mind the 1.2266 resistance also. MT Bullish:The clean move below 1.2199 breaks the sequence of higher lows and thus the major direction looks lower. Only a move back above 1.2266-91 would cause a further test of 1.2331 and maximum 1.2354-82. (June 6th)Daily Bearish:Losses came earlier than expected and while this should confirm the major direction as lower the completion of a 5-wave move from the 1.2328 corrective high (with minor risk of a move to 1.2140-45) amid a bullish divergence does suggest we should see a day of correction higher. Thus a stronger bearish stance will require a break below 1.2140 and then 1.2128. If seen then look for a move to 1.2195-05 at least and possibly as far as 1.2033. MT Bearish:The sequence of higher lows with daily cycles pressing lower confirms the high and thus we look for additional losses. While 1.2245-66 caps look for a move down towards the area of the 1.1994 low. (June 6th)


6th June

The high appears confirmed at 1.2331. I have labeled this as Wave [B] although I do keep in mind that the 1.2331 level was a 58.6% correction in an alternative Wave [iv] position. In many ways, the manner in which price has developed so far would tend to favor this alternative since it looks as if we should see a 5-wave move back to the 1.1994 low and this is more consistent with a Wave [V].

Thus for now we shall observe and suspect we are about to see Wave b of Wave (iii) with a 223.6% projection in Wave (iii) at 1.2033.

Ian Copsey
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