Pro Commentary Lite ... 8th April 2008 ... USDCHF

An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
[B] Price:[/B] 1.0072

[B]Bias:[/B]While 1.0140-71 caps I look for a test of 1.0044-50 and after a small pullback lower to below 1.0013
[B]Daily Bullish:[/B]Yesterday saw a stronger than expected pullback above 1.0130 which then stalled 2 points above the 1.0169 resistance. Losses from here do seem firm. However, watch the 1.0044-50 area which could generate a correction but should struggle above 1.0090-00. Thus only a recovery back above the 1.0115-20 pivot area would provide relief to the downside and would allow a move to 1.0171 at least. Above extends the upside to 1.0217 and 1.0249-73. [B]MT Bullish:[/B]While I still like the upside from a MT basis there does seem to be a growing argument for a move back to 0.9839 first. Thus only back above 1.0217 would trigger gains to the 1.0332-52 area. ([B]8th April[/B])[B]Daily Bearish:[/B]The pullback stalled higher than expected just 2 points above the 1.0169 resistance and from there we have seen losses which look constructive. Early on watch support around 1.0044-50. This should cause a small pullback but this should struggle around 1.0090-00 and then generate additional losses to 1.0013 and probably through for the 0.9980 pivot area that then has an eventual target at 0.9889 and 0.9839.[B]MT Bearsh:[/B]The upside is beginning to show signs of being overstretched but we’ll need a break below 1.0065 to generate losses back to the 0.9839 minimum and 0.9784. Only below sees new lows. ([B]4th April[/B])


[B]7th April[/B]

Gains have been seen but these still haven’t managed to take out the 1.0248 high. The depth of the pullback from 1.0217 appears to be deep enough tot suggest that a peak has been seen but the manner of the decline is somewhat indecisive.

I do have a bearish wave count but the 1.0120-30 area must cap in an expanded flat in minor Wave ii and then trigger losses back towards the 0.9870 Wave –b- low and to a wave equality target at 0.9839 at least.

[B]8th April[/B]
Yesterday’s pullback appears to be a deeper minor Wave ii than expected. This then keeps the more complex Wave –b- in intact in which the 1.0217 high was Wave b and thus we should see a wave equality target at 0.9839.
[B]Ian Copsey[/B]
[B]See Also[/B]

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