An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
Bias:Mixed – waiting for breaks
Daily Bullish:A narrow range trading day was seen yesterday and doesn’t really clear up the picture. However, for a bullish stance we need a break above 1.9732-41 and if seen this should be enough to spur price up to 1.9776 minimum and we suspect the 1.9801-12 area which should cap for a reversal lower. Next resistance is at the old 1.9846 high.MT Bullish: The pattern is becoming complex and we need to watch broad areas of support and resistance. The current recovery has potential to 1.9800-12 and only a break above here attacks the 1.9915 high. (February 7th)Daily Bearish:No real break higher and nor one lower yesterday. If we are to see any direct losses then we shall need to see a move down from current levels to below 1.9682 and then more importantly below 1.9652. If this breaks then it would suggest potential for additional losses to 1.9607 at least and potentially to 1.9535.MT Bearish:The recovery stalls the downside for now and only back below 1.9579 would begin to bring threat of additional losses to 1.9525 and 1.9480 at least. (February 7th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
The move back higher means we have to adjust our wave count and now see the 1.9480 low as Wave –a-. A 76.4% retracement lies at 1.9812 while a wave equality target in Wave c rests at 1.9801. This should be the barrier to the upside and may well indicate a possible triangle.
We still see the wave equality target around 1.9801-12 which also represents a 76.4% retracement in Wave –b- which we tend to favor should cap.
Any earlier move below 1.9652 being a 50% retracement in minor Wave iv would imply stronger losses back down to 1.9535 at least.
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