Pro Commentary Lite 9th April 2007 ... USDJPY

An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary

Price: 119.33

Bias:We feel the maximum today should be around 119.50-84 from where we expect a correction lower
Daily Bullish:The break above 118.40 has put to rest any immediate bearish structure. However, for today we feel the most we shall see on the upside is between the 119.50-84 area. Thus any stronger bullish stance will require a break above 119.84 and if seen would spark a stronger move higher towards 120.34-52 at least. Above there the next resistance is around 121.34.MT Bullish:We are approaching the 119.50 resistance and also note 119.84. Only above here would extend to 120.34-52 with the next major resistance areas around 121.12-34 and 121.79 ahead of the 122.18 high. (April 9th)Daily Bearish:We have had to adjust our overall structure but still see immediate resistance in the 119.50-84 area. While this caps any move below 118.95-05 would begin to provide a short term bearish look to the wave structure. There is minor support at 118.71 but then stronger at 118.30-40 which should hold on the day. Only below 118.29 would cause follow-through to 118.03. MT Bearish:We will now watch resistance at 119.50-84 and also 120.34-52 for signs of a cap developing. Only an earlier break below 118.30-40 would imply an earlier move lower to 117.20-27 & below. (April 9th)


9th April

With the break above 118.40 we find the wave structure less clear. It would appear to imply that the decline to 115.16 came in 5 waves from the 122.18 high and while this doesn’t really fit into our preferred daily structure we still feel that with weekly cycles being bearish it should limit the recovery in Wave (b). A 61.8% retracement comes in at 119.49 while we note an earlier internal resistance in what we feel is Wave –a- around 119.57-84. We’ll watch this resistance but this should imply a pullback followed by further gains.

We feel Wave x developed in a large triangle which ended at 117.20 and any move below here would generate additional losses.
Ian Copsey
See Also

[*]FX-Strategy Pro CommentaryComprehensive and insightful analysis[/ul]