[B]An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary[/B]
[B]Bias:[/B]With the peak seen between 1.2215-37 the next leg should now be lower to 1.1970-1.2003
[B]Daily Bullish:[/B]The 1.2215-37 resistance capped well on Friday and this should mean that any upside attempts today should be for corrections only. Thus only look to attempt long positions on a break above a minimum of 1.2215 but keep stops tight. A stronger reversal signal higher only comes on a break above 1.2237-42. If seen then first stop should be the 1.2305-10 pivot area and then the 1.2341 and 1.2379 levels. [B]MT Bulish:[/B]Direct losses have been seen and this now probably puts a cap on price around 1.2205-30. Thus only look for a larger reversal higher on a move above 1.2240 & then the 1.2270 pivot resistance. ([B]July 3rd[/B])[B]Daily Bearish:[/B]The cap on Friday within the 1.2215-37 resistance area is positive for the bearish view. This should keep any retracements below the 1.2215-20 area and allow a breach of 1.2161 to trigger losses through 1.2126 and down to the 1.2089-00 area. While this could cause a pullback it should be quite shallow and eventually lead to losses to the 1.1972-1.2003 area. [B]MT Bearish:[/B]The downside has broken down earlier than anticipated but this does suit the medium term view better. However, while price remains below 1.2205-30 we should see additional losses to 1.1874-78. ([B]July 3rd[/B])
[B]ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS[/B]
So far so good. Wave (b) stalled nicely between the 50% & 58.6% retracement and from there the losses have been positive although have not yet really confirmed additional losses. However, while the 76.4% retracement at 1.2215 caps I still look for a move below the 1.2161 low seen after Friday’s high to trigger losses down to the prior Wave b low at 1.2100 which could cause a small pullback but overall the move should progress to the 161.8%-176.4% projection in Wave (iii) around 1.1972-1.2003. We do need to be careful then but I suspect this will prove to be only Wave iii of Wave © with the 138.2% target at 1.1884 more likely which is where Wave (iii) will have extended by 223.6%.
[li]FX-Strategy Pro Commentary[/li]Analysis at its best…[/ul]