Pro Commentary Lite April 16th 2007 ... GBPUSD

An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary

Price: 1.9875

Bias:Mixed – waiting for breaks
Daily Bullish:The wave structure is not clear. We do feel there is risk for 1.9912-15 to be tested but wait for a break above the 1.9886 high. Care at 1.9912-15 as this could cap – and if it does then we should also see a bearish divergence. Thus a stronger bullish stance requires breach of 1.9915 and if seen would extend the upside towards 1.9951 and 1.9985 at least. Next resistance is at 2.0016.MT Bullish:We retain our bullish stance and while 1.9670-00 supports this should move to 1.9985 minimum and we suspect 2.0016 and possibly as high as the 2.0078 level which should cap for a larger decline. (April 12th)Daily Bearish:We have seen gains to 1.9886 within an unclear wave structure. We tend to favor a small breach for 1.9912-15 but are not too confident there will be any further gains. Support is at 1.9540-50 and if this gives way then the downside becomes favored for a move back through 1.9780 (which could initially cause a small correction) and then down to 1.9723-41 which could again cause a pullback. MT Bearish:We are getting a little more cautious about the upside with risk of the 1.9912-15 capping for a reversal back to the 1.9589 low once again. (April 16th)


13th April

While we have seen a break above 1.9817-23 we feel this is most likely in an expanded flat Wave –b- with a 38.2% expansion at 1.9853. This should cause a pullback to the Wave a low at 1.9723 and possibly the 50% pullback at 1.9706 before Wave –c- can start.

16th April

We are a little cautious but feel there is risk of a cap being seen at the 38.2% expansion of the 1.9823-1.9589 decline which rests at 1.9912-15. This would imply a second test down to 1.9589 and possibly just below in an expanded flat Wave –iv-.
Ian Copsey
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