Pro Commentary Lite April 17th 2007 ... USDCAD

An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary

Price: 1.1318

Bias:While 1.1336-42 caps there is still room for losses to 1.1276-82 else breach provokes gains
Daily Bullish:Further losses seen to the top end of our 1.1276-99 support with a bullish divergence developing. As such we should be on warning of a possible stronger recovery higher. We prefer to look for one last low to 1.1276-82 from where we expect the recovery. An earlier break above 1.1334 would appear to suggest direct gains which would then progress to the 1.1386 area which should cause a pullback. Next resistance is then found at 1.1410 and on an aggressive move at 1.1490-00. MT Bullish:We should now be on alert to the possibility that a low has been seen. At most we should only see 1.1276-1.1320. Therefore a break back above 1.1394 would cause a rally to 1.1490-1.1530 at least. (April 16th)Daily Bearish:Break of 1.1320-29 has caused a test of the high end of the 1.1276-99 target area and while 1.1330-34 caps we feel there is still some risk of seeing a move to the ideal target at 1.1276-82. However, we feel that we are on the verge of a reversal higher and thus care needs to be exercised. Thus only a clean breach of 1.1270 would maintain the downward momentum for 1.1243-51 at least. Next support is then found at 1.1182-1.1205.MT Bearish:We feel we are quite close to the end of this move noting support at 1.1320 and at most 1.1276. Only below there extends the downside further towards 1.1243 and possibly below 1.1200. (April 13th)


16th April

The recovery from 1.1329 has been very deep and it’s possible that price fell 9 points short of the 161.8% projection in Wave C at 1.1320. We do have to still be cautious in case a second attempt lower is seen but we also note the 176.4% projection in Wave C at 1.1276. However, we feel a reversal higher is expected at any time.

17th April

We are very close with yesterday’s move to 1.1299 and a reversal higher is expected at any time. Still the 176.4% projection in Wave C at 1.1276 attracts but should hold.
Ian Copsey
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