Pro Commentary Lite ... April 20th 2007 ... EURJPY

An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary

Price: 161.58

Bias:Mixed – waiting for breaks
Daily Bullish:We saw reversal from our 159.50-70 support area perfectly and now we need monitor how far this can rally. We note resistance at 161.74 and any move above here should cause a retest of the 162.30-40 area which we feel will cap again on first test. Only above 162.40 would extend to 163.06 and possibly 163.47. MT Bullish: Having bounced from the advised 159.50-70 support a bullish structure is still valid. This would cause a pullback from the 162.40 area but breach would begin to suggest a much stronger rally towards 164.32-165.00. (April 20th)Daily Bearish:We are approaching critical resistance if the recovery from the 159.50-70 support is merely a pullback. This would require the 161.74-91 area to cap. Should we see a reversal lower then to confirm additional losses we require break below 161.09 and then through 160.80-85 towards the 160.40 area. This could cause a pullback. Only breach would extend back to the 159.60 low again. MT Bearish:The 159.60 support has held and if there is any chance of additional losses then we require the 161.74-91 area to cap and trigger a reversal back to 159.60 with breach still required to confirm MT losses. (April 20th)


20th April

The 159.60 level held and this could have been a 58.6% retracement in a minor Wave iv. If so then the Wave v should see Wave a stall around the 162.30-40 area and after a pullback we can generate target for Wave v at 163.97 (61.8%), at 164.32 (66.67%) and 165.00 (76.4%.)

However, while the 161.74-91 area caps in a 76.4% retracement of the decline to 159.60 a subsequent break of this low would confirm medium term losses in what is probably a major weekly Wave (iv).
Ian Copsey
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