Predicted where? Missed that.
Interesting theory. Thanks for sharing. I’ll take a look at these divergence charts. I use cumulative delta of the previous few days which is a good additional input to throw in although it doesn’t work on fx in non-event context.
Cheers!
I posted the data, which “speaks” the prediction for
itself, as it was prior to the event.
I’m not gonna make this thread a “blow by blow” or “signal
provider” thread. That’s ridiculous. I’ll show you examples
of prediction from the data. That’s the “freebie” aspect of all
this. But a forum like this isn’t designed to be a “trade room” ! LOL
I’m layout out the principles, and the rationale. I’m giving you
access to the data links. And I’m available for questions, but
don’t expect me to give you “signal calls”; but I will try to
illustrate examples, many of them post-mortem.
Naturally, in all this, your task is to take the experience of
the examples (many after the fact) and give me the benefit
of the doubt that I’m not unduly cherry picking examples.
This is NOT GUESSING nor is it relying on the consensus
of pundits or retail traders here !!! This is relying on the evidence
of Currency Trending to tell us where the MM’s place their money
and making rational, logical decisions before the event based
upon that data. I’m sure you get that main point…
IF YOU ARE A NEWS TRADER, AND YOU ARE NOT DOING IT
THIS WAY, THEN GOOD LUCK, but using this method we are
trying NOT TO RELY ON LUCK OR GUESSING but to use
hard analytic information, and appropriate judgment, to read
where the specific Market CURRENCY will move… 
hyperscalper
TRADING IS TIMEFRAME, TIMEFRAME, AND TIMEFRAME
As they say about Real Estate: “Location, location and location”
Usage of this broad range of Currency Trend Analytics information,
depends upon, and should always depend upon Your expected or desired
trading timeframe by which I mean, are you a micro scalper, a day trader
or are you a multi-day Swing trader, or … are you a longer term Investor ???
Knowing what you are, or the style you want to adopt, will determine HOW
you use this data.
But, by this thread’s very nature, we are becoming News Event Traders
and that means that we
are Short Term traders, wanting to profit from a few minutes, to maybe 30
minutes beyond a News Event.
WHICH TYPE OF TRADER ARE YOU ?? (rhetorical and introspective question)
hyperscalper
You’ve been on babypips for a while. In particular you have tried using this divergence chart system before. Now you’re using it for news. What will you do next? I see you are really promoting the fact that you are giving away free material. But if one cant use it then it’s just pointless, it doesnt make it any more worth it if it’s free. I can post free stuff after the fact too. It becomes a redundant thread. Maybe to satisfy only your own curiosity.
Hi. It’s important what you are saying. If the main point you are making is
that posting "after the fact* trade results is all I’m doing, then that would be
just some ego feeding diversion maybe.
Certainly, traders learn from “after the fact” analysis of their results, but
the profits are in before the fact predictions which are correct many more
times than they are incorrect.
There are many ways of using this Currency Trend Analytics data; and
I am giving you links to the live data with no access restrictions.
HERE ARE OPEN LINKS TO THE DATA YOU WILL NEED
On this page OPEN LINK IN A NEW BROWSER TAB :
http://xscalp.com/quick/#Charts
Now, the question is, whether the trader can learn to profit from this data,
based on what I say “for free” in this small thread ?? Or, is it better for
a trader to request some consultancy guidance, in exchange for a small
fee (relative to the profits which could materialize).
The only thing I can think of doing, given that there is a proprietary component
involved just in the generation of the Currency Trend Analytics data, is just
to provide access to the data “for free” and then explain in the best way
possible (based on questions from thread participants) what to look for
and how those features in the data predict News Event trading outcomes.
I could try to run some signal service maybe, but I’d rather teach a
man to fish ( I mean “trade successfully” ) rather than to provide signals
which are pre-digested.
SO TO ADDRESS YOUR MAIN POINT, THAT YOU SAY YOU
CAN’T USE THE INFORMATION. iN FACT, THE LINKS i GAVE
ARE ALL THE INFORMATION YOU NEED TO TRADE SUCCESSFULLY,
ONCE YOU UNDERSTAND THE FUNDAMENTAL METHOD.
So, why do you say “I see you are really promoting the fact that
you are giving away free material. But if one cant use it then it’s
just pointless, it doesnt make it any more worth it if it’s free.”
Also, this is not a Divergence method in the sense of looking for
some values which re-converge just because they are extreme
in Currency Strength valuations. SPECIFICALLY, I AM SAYING THAT
THE STIMULUS OR CATALYST in the FOREX market for reversals,
are the News Events which everyone sees on the public calendars.
Does any of this explanation moderate your view on this thread?
What would you suggest I do in addition to the posts which are above?
hyperscalper
WHAT CALENDARS DO WE USE, AND HOW TO SET THEM UP
I’d suggest most people use the Calendar at ForexFactory dot com .
But there are several reputable Calendars, most of which are
free.
ALWAYS SET THE CALENDAR TIME TO GMT/UTC since all of the
charts use GMT as their horizontal time base. Always set to 24-hour
day, and not AM/PM.
When checking the Calendar, which Currencies should we use?
Change the filter to eliminate CNY as we do not use it; but make sure
that only the 8 Major Currencies shown in the charts are selected.
EVENT TYPES
Select all event types, and you may eliminate those events which are
considered “least significant” to winnow down the number of News Events
you will target during the week.
MOBILE ANDROID
There are many Calendar apps, so I won’t go into which one you should use.
My preference is to use the Yandex browser on Android, and open up the
ForexFactory dot com site in “desktop mode” and so I am dealing with
the non-mobile version of the ForexFactory site. The Yandex browser is
my “go to” browser, since it handles multiple tabs so nicely. Don’t be
"signing into" any browser, and it’s perfectly fine to use whatever suits you.
Make sure your browser permits you to PAN AND ZOOM so that you
can clearly read the desktop version of the ForexFactory calendar site.
YANDEX PRO TIP. The Yandex browser is able to load Chrome
extensions. Oddly, the Chrome browser on Android does not support
Chrome extensions, as far as I know… Odd.
ANDROID TIP Enable Accessibility feature, so that Triple Tap and Hold
will permit you to “pan and zoom” even more detail on your mobile
smartphone device.
AT THE START OF EACH WEEK, you should form an overview plan
of the major News Events to come, and then begin analysis activities
targetting those events.
hyperscalper
VOLATILITY AND RISK MANAGEMENT
This is not a topic directly involved in the current thread, but
News Events are inherently volatile
General tips:
These are just suggestions about how to manage the volatility which
may come on major News Events.
hyperscalper
MICRO SCALPING A MINOR NEWS EVENT IN CAD
Using a Binary Option to control risk, we can attempt to scalp
a minor News Event. Here we see CAD Manufacturing Sales
and there is potential to scalp the event in a 15 minute
Binary Option ADVANCED, NOT FOR NOOBIES
Here we see the CAD CURRENCY creating a “bubble” and then
responding to the News by “bursting” of that mini-bubble.
hyperscalper
The yellow curve looks pretty much like the CADCHF chart which began a slightliy bullish move at 13:18 GMT that retraced around the event. I can’t figure out how this could have been traded. (My chart is GMT+1)
The USDCAD is more or less the mirror image which had its bear peak at 13:24.
Yes, that’s the time, where the News was at 13:30 GMT ( 14.30 on your
GMT+1 broker server time ).
Being a “minor news event” the move can be very small, perhaps only
a few PIPs.
Keep in mind that we would target the CAD to be SOLD. This gives
the trader 7 Currency Pairs to choose from:
CAD cluster: AUDCAD CADCHF CADJPY EURCAD GBPCAD NZDCAD USDCAD
where CAD/xxx would be SOLD and xxx/CAD would be BOUGHT .
Depending upon the pairing of the Primary CAD Currency with a Secondary
to form a Pair, there may or may not have been enough to overcome
Bid/Ask spread and Commission. However… for such precision work,
a good Binary can offer extreme precision.
So I used a Binary Option on CloseOption dot com, which has no spread,
and which pays out on as little as 0.1 PIP Price Movement. An ordinary
Forex trade would have been unlikely to yield much; you’re right !
This example was mainly to show how sensitive the Currency Trend
detail can be. Now, whether or not you are able to profit, in a case
like this where there was almost no Currency reaction, is another
thing. Many News Events are big moves; but others, such as this
one are only “minor earthquakes” LOL
[EDIT] the “setup process” for a Currency occurs during a period
before the News Event, of course, and can be hours, days or even
weeks prior depending on the significance of the upcoming News.
Often we can see that the Currency reaches "peak valuation"
maybe half an hour before the event, so that it would have been
advantageous to take a position earlier. Here we see a max
CAD valuation a few minutes prior to the event but, again, this
is only an example showing Currency sensitivity. ALSO, traders
trade Currency Pairs and the Secondary Currency exerts an
influence on the Pair’s movement in a fortuitous choice of Pairing.
[edit] Of course, with Currency Trend Strength data, we can see
for a given Currency Pair, just what is moving it. Whether Currency
X is moving and/or Currency Y is affecting the Pair’s price move.
hyperscalper
OK, thank you for the explanation. I personally don’t see an edge in binaries and rather focus on major events. I’ve tried binaries when they appeared but it felt too much like coin flipping.
Exactly my observation.
Good observation, but you got the wrong Binary.
Consider if the Binary strike price is precisely the same as
the Forex mid-price. Precisely.
Binaries have no spread, and a 0.1 PIP move means
you WIN… or you LOSE.
This means you can legitimately do a form of micro-scalping
on Binaries which are not possible with regular Forex.
Plus the Min/Max Risk control is built in…
Use CloseOption dot com . Now, with News Events, we
are not really micro-scalping but we are potentially scalping
for small movements, which we can predict. So, suddenly
the “scammy” Binary Options become a Pro Tool ! Trust me,
and just try it out for yourself.
Of course, you can do regular Forex, but at least now you
have a choice of tools !! I am discovering that instead of
going only for Big events; I find many more smaller events,
and then use a CloseOption Binary for the smaller moves,
which we are able to predict… And it’s a lot less SCARY
than taking a huge stake in regular Forex, especially if
the analytic “signal” is somewhat ambiguous…
hyperscalper
No way I’m going to put money into an unregulated broker in Georgia. I still have my currently unused Dukas binary account if I feel the need to try this again. They’re a regulated swiss bank. But broker recommendations are off-topic here.
Hey, I’m only talking about the technical benefits of a Binary in these
situations. If you have access to Dukas Binaries, I think there is a
spread involved there, but that’s great. As a U.S. person, I am not
able to use Dukascopy Binaries. I do have associates to have such
access.
[edit] funny you should mention Dukas, as I compare CloseOption’s
pricing directly with a high speed tick feed from Dukas; which is how
I verified my view on the solid results obtained from CloseOption.
Yeah, I guess they could steal your money on deposit? Personally,
I don’t think that’s a big concern, but that depends on your views
of “regulated=good” and “unregulated=bad” of course
Broker recommendations are welcome. Everyone has an opinion !!
[edit] Most traders try to CHASE a News Event when it’s in progress,
and most brokerage comments are “How come my platform freezes
on News Events?” I am not so interested in that, since I recommend
being in the position BEFORE the event, and never trying to chase
a volatile “market earthquake” in progress.
But this thread is indeed focused on the questions of how
Currency Trend Analytics dove-tail with predictions of News
Event outcomes in Forex.
[edit] News Events are volatile (read “scary as heck”) especially
to under funded traders… that’s why I recommend having the
Binary Options or other options features available for Risk
mitigation… <-- fancy term, huh ? LOL
My recommendations of having a Binary Options (or some other
Options platform) in your back pocket are with regard to their
[edit] how come this platform reformats my 1 parenthesis,
into a 1 full stop (period) ? weird…
hyperscalper
I sometimes forget that. Dukas being outside the EU doesn’t even have to comply with ESMA. Their tick feed is awesome and some of the analysis they provide can’t be done on MT4/5 or tradingview. But yeah, the ‘must be regulated’ is important to me.
Just checked. Dukas binaries do have a spread although a really tight one.
Yeah, CloseOption Binaries use something like “the midpoint of price”
and so literally have zero spread. But my understanding is that
Dukas Up/Down Binaries force the Spread distance as the minimum
move… a little weird and different, but not that significant.
I may have software on the Dukas feed which will do micro-scalping
triggering, and may be used to auto-click CALL or PUT buttons in
order to do precision entries ! Because a WIN or LOSS is all
or nothing that makes Binaries extremely interesting, if you
think about it for a while… 
DM or PM me for a more extensive
discussion, since it’s off-topic… 
[edit] Just to illustrate, take a look at this:
hyperscalper
OK, LET’S TRY A PROSPECTIVE PREDICTION AND
LOOK AT AN UPCOMING EVENT FOR NZD which
is RETAIL SALES
It’s 16:30 GMT now, and a NZD event is scheduled for 21:45 GMT
so that’s 5 hours in the future. This is Retail Sales news, so
What can we say as a preliminary hypothesis?
During the past 12 hours, NZD as a CURRENCY has been
moved down, and is showing signs of support. But we still
have 5 hours to go… Here is the data we had a bit earlier:
And the very latest data, at this moment, both of which are consistent:
Our preliminary expectation is that NZD will RISE on the News
Event, so we keep that in mind. There is also the suggestion that a good
Currency Pair choice to trade would be GBP/NZD (which we would SELL).
So, we already have a couple of good pieces of information, and need
to watch NZD as we approach the News Event itself… stay tuned
hyperscalper
NZD 6 WEEK TREND POSITIONING
Meanwhile, and if we are a much longer term investor;
we take note that over the past 6 weeks, NZD has been
steadily increasing in valuation.
But if we are concerned only about this local News Event
coming up, Retail Sales, the information is not so relevant.
However, a key part of the method is always keeping the wider
context in mind, even though it may not be relevant to Retail Sales
News for a short term scalp.
hyperscalper
LOOKING TO SELL GBP/NZD
on the Retail News in 15 minutes. Peak or
“best” NZD devaluation has past but,
nevertheless, NZD should lift some on
anticipated good Retail news.
I’ll have to live or die by this prediction
hyperscalper
