OVERVIEW AND INTRODUCTORY REMARKS
====> PLEASE READ FIRST 10 POSTS BEFORE RESPONDING
I specialize in Trading Forex News Events as marked on various
calendars such as ForexFactory dot com and other publicly
known upcoming News Events in FOREX only, looking at the
28 Major Currency Pairs only.
Like many of you, I used to avoid News Events because they
seem to be inherently unpredictable. After all, how could you
know which way a Currency Pair will move on an announcement?
This thread is designed to discuss that, and to provide some hope
that News Event trading can be approached profitably, and rationally
including concepts of Risk Management of Volatility which occurs.
Now, I regularly seek out upcoming News Events and, in most
cases, can predict where the primary affected Currency will move.
But how could this be possible? Are we predicting the future ?
No. We are not so much analyzing fundamentals, and making
predictions based on that; nor are we using a Crystal Ball. Instead, we
are watching where “the Market Movers” are positioning their
investments prior to the News Event, and planning to Profit from
those investments, once the News Event result is revealed.
This is what I call “the First Move Theory”. We want to know where
"the market" is planning to move on the News Event, and we plan
to gather evidence of their intentions, from observing their
behavior prior to the Event. We want to know what “they” are
expecting to do as their “First Move” on the News Event !
What behaviors can we observe? This is the most critical aspect
of the approach. We are working in Forex, and traders are Trading
Currency Pairs which are based on an interaction of 2 Currencies
X and Y in a relationship X/Y . We need to know what X is doing,
independently of Y. Then we observe the Primary Currency which
is being affected by the upcoming News Event, and make predictions
based upon *Currency Trend Analytics" data.
To achieve this, we may require looking back several days or even
several weeks, to observe the positioning of the target Currency.
Therefore, there is a dependency on data which is a proprietary feed,
and so some training and consultancy will be required.
You should be prepared to pay a reasonable consultancy fee if you
want focused consultancy, to gain experience in this approach.
It will be difficult in a thread like this one, to provide other than a
discussion of general principles, strategy. To include specific
examples, you would need to PM me, and be prepared to spend
some consultancy and training fees to get rolling with this new
approach to News Event trading.
This thread will try to discuss the general principles, and areas of
concern in this general Strategy. But there is a proprietary component
here, which is the Currency Analytics data you’ll need on which to base
your own decisions.
But the most important thing is to break the habit of looking at
individual Forex Currency Pair Symbols. Instead, look at the Forex
individual CURRENCY strength movements, which will guide us to
the relevant Currency Pair(s) which appear to offer the best
opportunity to profit on the News Event.
And finally, in general, we do not chase pricing volatility that
occurs on a typical News Event. Instead, we must be "in the trade
BEFORE the News Event occurs*. This is very important.
Techniques like “predatory” placement of Limit Orders, and control
of Risk by modulating Lot Sizes, and also by using a Binary Option
as a Risk Management technique; all of these topics play a role in
successful News Event trading.
So let’s get started discussing a strategy for successful News
Event trading with an understanding that Trading is difficult but
that we can take a rational and technical approach to News Events
which will allow us to WIN most of our trades, even though we
recognize that SOME TRADES may be lost, as is the case
with all real Trading !!
HERE ARE OPEN LINKS TO THE DATA YOU WILL NEED
On this page OPEN LINK IN A NEW BROWSER TAB :