NEWS EVENT USD FLASH MFG AND SERVICES
Let’s try another one 45 minutes away…
Clearly in the image below we expect USD to
RISE on the News Event, as it is positioned low:
I’ll do a post-mortem later.
[RESULTS]
OK, Flash Mfg actual results came in flat. I decided to
PUT (SELL) GBP/USD which did move 5 PIPs or so
to WIN. 
As you can see, the movements were very small
based upon 30 minutes real time Divergence:
hyperscalper
CHOICE OF A PAIRING CURRENCY CAN SABOTAGE
THE TRADE
Your prediction on the Target CURRENCY can be correct,
but if you choose an unfortunate Secondary currency
for the Currency Pairing, you can get an adverse result,
despite being correct about the Primary Target.
For any Target Currency, in our scheme of 28, there are
exactly 7 Pairings you can choose. Choose wisely. There
are guidelines for doing this.
[EDIT] OK, yes I should mention a few of the guidelines
for choosing a Currency Pair.
If you want the movement to depend almost entirely on
the Target Currency, then Pair it with something fairly
stable such as USD.
If you want a “slingshot” dual Currency movement to
help you with your Currency Pair, then Pair with a
Secondary Currency which has the opposite
Currency Trend Deflection from the Target. So, if
you’re looking at Selling XXX then Pair it with a
YYY where YYY is likely to lift, and XXX is likely
to fall for the XXX/YYY Pair.
If only an inverse Pair is available, make the Pairing
and reverse the Buy/Sell action for the YYY/XXX
Pair.
Not too difficult to understand, once you’re done it for
a while 
hyperscalper
do you have a track record for your performance?
There are many variable factors, including time of day
and the overall significance of the News Event to the
Currency valuation.
In other words, if you’re looking only for the huge moves
which may result in 30-100 PIPs deviation in associated
Currency Pairs, then you have fewer cases to study.
On the other hand, lately I’ve been using sensitive Binary
Options, predicting direction, and profiting on only a very
few PIPs movement. Here we see more daily opportunities
but it’s a different animal than the Big Bang events that
most would consider for typical News Trading.
So in trying to figure out a Win ratio, the cases split into
at least 2 or 3 categories of Events. And the 2 modalities
of ordinary Forex Trading versus Binary Options also
greatly affect profitability for a given move.
Clearly, in order to define a “win” we have to consider
the duration of the hold time of a position. That’s another
dimension which causes data to be sparse.
So, what I’m trying to say is that if you put a gun to my head
then I would say we are better than 80% and possibly 90%
in predicting the initial move of the Currency on the Event.
As in surgery, the experience of the surgeon greatly affects
the outcomes; so practice makes more perfect 
hyperscalper
LEVERAGING THE PRECISION OF A BINARY OPTION ON
A MINOR NEWS EVENT
Here we see a ForexFactory “yellow” colored event coming up,
which includes USD Industrial production m/m. We identify that
USD is positioned at a minor “double top” and choose AUD as
a secondary Pairing Currency as shown here:
[EDIT] we see here the transition from Asian Session into
the much more active London Session…
Arrows show our expected movements for the 2 Currencies.
Just 1-2 minutes prior to the release we enter a CALL option
for AUD/USD as low as possible, choosing an expiration of
10 minutes.
[RESULT] Here we show a movement of 2-3 PIPs which results
in a WIN for the CALL option entered at the lower price. This
is a great example of a trade which “straight Forex” would not
handle well, since there is a level of precision just to break
through Commission and Spread Costs.
But the Binary Option has no spread, and we are easily able to
scalp this minor news event move which, fortunately, moves in
our direction confirming the prediction.
This illustrates that with the proper analytic support
and execution platform that minor news events may
be reliably tradable (scalpable)
[CURRENCY MOVEMENTS] were very small but we
can see they cooperated to product the small PIP
excursion which contributed to the scalp win.
( Ignore the flat horizontal lines in the chart, as they should
not really be there… )
hyperscalper
MISTAKES CAN BE MADE USING WRONG TIMEFRAME
I personally missed the AUD rise on Employment, but in looking
at a more appropriate timeframe, that of 12 hour Divergence,
we can clearly see the AUD setup and rise.
Live and learn, right ?? I had used only a 3 hour Divergence
and hastily came to the wrong conclusion !! LOL
So, some practice is needed, and we should always be
open to learning !!
hyperscalper
seems its not usable at all. Too complicated and too many questions. Anybody used this strategy finally?
Tell me your successful strategy which is “simple”. Did you make this
comment just to be negative? Is winning at Forex ever going to be
"simple" ?? Let’s hear a more thoughtful comment from you, please.
[EDIT] In answer to your question, No, very few traders will be following
these methods because they are completely new, and most traders
"follow the crowd" . Perhaps nobody is even reading this thread, since
they are not aware of the potential for News Event trading which this
thread tries to explain. 
hyperscalper
Sorry, I did;t meant to upset you. Just in my opinion your strategy seems strange and complicated…
Strategy I follow is based on pure price action + real volume action. I’m using Clearstreamfx indicators to keep it simple.
OK, but where do you get Time and Sales volumes? In my case, in a completely
different line of research, I create a Virtual Time and Sales from the Dukascopy
API Market Depth stream. When you say “volume” I don’t think you actually have
a Time and Sales, or get it from the exchange’s Market Depth, do you ?
This thread is only for the News Event prediction using Currency Analytics, which
does not rely on Volume data.
[EDIT] I have a question for you. Can U.S. persons trade with MetaTrader 4
using ClearStreamFX as a broker ??? Are you U.S. or from outside the U.S. ?
[EDIT2] I JUST LOOKED AT THE REGISTRATION PAGE AND THEY DO NOT
SERVICE U.S. PERSONS.
hyperscalper
CSFX indicators (Flowtrader) get it aggregated volume from Currenex/Reuters/Bloomberg and etc institutional data providers. I think you can read details at website or ask at Customer Service or in chat while passing the course,
Ok, if you want to trade with no volume - it’s you choice, but trust me - we are completely blind comparing to institutional data, just small kids always loosing to big boys…
I’m luckily not from US, so for me no problem. But I think you can get CAP Funding as a US person and also education+tools. May be you can use your current US brokerage with MT4 tools they provide.
Good luck
Moor
OK, well this thread is not about Time and Sales or “volume”.
The best anyone can say is that overall transaction volume
increases at major price levels, like support / resistance levels,
largely because traders get more excited at these "inflection"
points, and markets also linger at those levels for that reason.
Forex platforms offer no Time and Sales, and no Depth of
Market volume which is real. I specialize in Order Flow analysis
in Forex, and in short term scalping based on such calculations,
but even explaining it would be way too lengthy. I use Dukascopy’s
tick by tick Depth of Market but even if you have a DOM and
a derived Time and Sales, most traders think they can “eyeball it” and
gain some predictive power, with Futures, for example. They can’t.
Forex Currency Pair markets are not driven by Order Flow,
but by Currency Strength movements anyway. An individual
pair’s movements simply can’t depart much from the valuation
of the 2 currencies which form the pair. But enough said.
The method advocated in this thread works because, although
Currency Pair movements can be confusing; driven, as they are,
by 2 variables, the Currencies A and B, the movements of
the underlying Currencies are much simpler to understand, and
it is CURRENCY which will reverse trend direction on News
Events. That Currency change affects roughly 7 Pairs which
contain that Currency as a factor.
hyperscalper
Oh boy. Lots of contradicting statements in here. Currency Strength is a result of movement. Order Flow/ Volume are interchangeable terms with Order Flow being the study of what’s coming into the market, volume being the study of what’s there.
Dukascopy has about 1/2 % of global daily volume in change over. EBS has about 35, Reuters about 28 on GBP alone… You’re throwing darts. Dukascopy’s DOM comes from Currenex Feeds and without aggregation you might see 20M on a range, EBS alone is 5M on each quote Aggregate them and you have 500M within 2 pips of best bid/offer. Dukacopy… the place that gives you the limit order - only based upon when they receive the order not what is placed. lol
@CSFX Good post which reflects some thought and experience. I am not aware of another retail tick feed which is both free, and provides Depth of Market on every tick, other than Dukascopy. If anyone knows another, I’d be interested. Sure, at high cost and perhaps a FIX connection Forex DOM’s may be accessible.
[continuation] Of course, even with access to a hypothetical “global” Forex DOM, the question is how to analyze it, of course, and I’ve spent a decade on that problem. I don’t want to get too much into Order Flow Analysis, and synthesis of Time and Sales analogues, since that isn’t the subject of this thread. But consider that Dukascopy’s DOM, despite representing only a small fraction of the Forex market, nevertheless offers amazing insight (when analyzed effectively) into the directionality of the market.
Dukas guarantees exactly 10 levels of DOM for BID and 10 levels for ASK. These may seem to represent only 1.0 PIPs distance from the inside market, as the pricing resolution is 0.1 PIPs. However, consider that when that DOM is momentarily “sparse”, let’s say every other price has no quote on a specific scan, then we get a glimpse into 2.0 PIPs distance from the market. And if we design analyzers at every possible Price near the market, then, over time, each Analyzer is “hit” by some data which it can capture at a specific Price level.
Think of a shotgun with a “narrow pattern” sometimes, and a “wider pattern” at other times. (Simplify by imagining the pattern as 1 dimensional only, instead of 2 dimensional) Over time, even a fairly short period of time, nearly all price-specific Analyzers near the market, will be struck by some shotgun pellets. Each hit represents a quote of Size@Price and, when aggregated properly, can show the size Bias profile near the market. This is a good predictor of short term directionality.
[note] The analysis I do, based on a virtual T&S is a continuous determination of Net Directional Volume flow on multiple timeframes. It’s pretty compute-intensive and involves evaluating all “virtual trades” in “inventory” over the full timeframe, and thus calculating an estimate of aggregate Market Maker Net inventory and exposure for each Currency Pair (exposure or “risk” is whether the MM estimated inventory is making or losing money on that timeframe). Yes, of course, it’s an estimate, but that is very useful, and way too much off-topic to discuss here.
But, no more about this aspect of the work I’ve done, except to suggest one very interesting possibility. I’ve mused about one final stage in my R&D work, to simply calculate “the real time Order Flow” into each CURRENCY, aggregated from the real time Order Flows into each Currency Pair. I have wondered what that would possibly predict, but only a “Gedanken Experiment” right now. It’s interesting to me, since it is Currency Strength which drives the Forex Market, even though we are forced to trade Currency Pairs, which are an interaction of 2 Currencies.
Back to my original thread’s intent, it is CURRENCY which should be used to analyze Forex better, and more predictively; instead of the sole focus on Currency Pair movements, as most traders are forced to do. And Currency Strength does not require Volume information, in order to be estimated; as that is an activity using Price only.
hyperscalper
I built aggregation from scratch that included EBS, Bloomberg, Reuters, CNX, HS, Integral, FXAll… that wasn’t free you’re right. DOM though in Dukascopy is weak flow unfortunately. To paint a better picture of it, it’s funds reaching into a pool of sophisticated retail traders.
To get anywhere of value after you have the ‘shotgun’ approach you then have to intelligently eliminate all the noise and redundancy of LP’s. The 10 levels of focus without aggregation is a problem. WITH aggregation narrow down the range and focus on bid/ask bounce that will start to give you the clarity you want.
Yes, very good points. Of course, we have to use some simple smoothing and evaluation techniques, trying to deal with “spoofing” or estimate the “persistence” of Size at a particular Price level, etc. You’re right that a lot of massaging is needed to get to a usable real time predictor of short term market direction.
But, at the end of the day, a Currency Pair is driven more by Currency A versus B interaction in the Pair A/B, and that is the dominant “force” which can overpower Order Flows in the individual Pair, as a predictor.
After all, with 28 Pairs, using the 8 main Currencies, the Currency Strength of a specific Currency is estimated from the behavior of 7 Currency Pairs (each containing the Currency of interest), so it is a consensus type of estimate of strength. The other 6 Currency Pairs behavior often overpower just any single Pair’s Order Flow behavior.
One thing we can agree on, I imagine, is that Markets are dynamic and endlessly fascinating from the point of view of future Price Prediction.
hyperscalper
NO NO NO, do not smooth. Eliminate redundancy but do not smooth. Spoofing is easy easy easy to see when you know the architecture of the ECN’s. Smoothing attempts to take real time and filter it down, but when you know the range there’s no spoofing that exists. It’s all real interest. Any smoothing adds absurd lag.
Here’s what you’re trying to do. With aggregation I feed the volume analysis into MT4. I then color the candles in blue for bullish pushes and red for volume driven markets lower. Green and Yellow are the noise. If a red candle turns yellow be cautious otherwise it keeps you in the market lower. The attached chart is GBPJPY this morning. 2 hours trading, 5% return.
Almost every turn is given to you, this is reading flow, volume, price action, tick analysis and so much more. It’s all driven by volume, filtered (not smoothed) (reminds me of a beer commercial), the ticks as they are analyzed are then fed in with the net volume analysis.
You’re going to spin some wheels the way you’re doing it. I can cut the learning curve and time down massively!
Why don’t you start another thread on Volume based analysis in Forex? I’d be very interested to follow your logic. However, since the subject is so complex, it’s easy to “talk past each other”. Results are so heavily dependent upon precisely what we are trying to measure here.
Lag, for example, is significant if you are trying to make predictions for an HFT (high frequency trading) system. On the other hand, if you’re predicting where price will be the next 30 seconds, then some Lag can be traded off for “noise reduction” and “smart analysis”. By “smart analysis” I mean that if an Analyzer captures sizes over 30 seconds at a specific Price, then we can ask it, what was the lowest average size advertised in the interval, which is a measure of the “willingness” to transact at that Price level, etc… So this is very difficult and detail-oriented stuff, as you know.
Also, I’m sure you are aware, that “description” is not the same as “prediction” so it’s easy to think we have a predictor, when we have only a description of what just happened.
HAVE YOU or CAN YOU START A THREAD ON THE SUBJECT?
[pm] maybe you can PM me and we can speak more directly on this whole thing going forward? You may make my work look very naive; but at least I’d be interested to know your approaches which appear very successful…
[note] This stuff is so difficult, in my view, that I am exactly 1 year behind my schedule for production, due to extended R&D research. Pisses me off…
So if you have a better solution to my predictive issues, somehow, then I would be very interested to speak with you !
I am not saying that the News Event stuff is that difficult; just other forms
of scalping that I’m researching for automation.
[edit] I think I looked at ClearStreamFX (as a possible brokerage) and determined it’s off limits to U.S. persons. Is that correct?
hyperscalper
Please do your homework before spending money on anything concerning Nick / CleastreamFX
Scammers - Hall of Shame - Page 453 @ Forex Factory
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=12686498#post12686498
@DrMoorZilla it’s all wrong.
CycleTrader is simply ZigZag indicator and Flow Trader tick difference oscillator. The whole PA+ course teaches simple zigzag breakout supported by volume oscillator. All available freely on the Internet.
I replicated exactly the same with common free indicators. So do not believe that Nick’s are anyhow derivate from volume (apart of tick oscillator, which takes tick volume into the account, but it’s not institutional at all)
FT43 is copy of GRAB indicator which is based on EMAs not on volume. But coloured candles are so tempting for newbies and Nick tries to capitalised on it.
GRAB gives very same result as @CSFX institutional “volume aggregator”. Candles are just coloured differently ( I left original colors, there are 6 types of candles for 2 for range, 2 for bullish and 2 for bearish)
Reuters. EBS, Bloomberg do not allow anyone to resell anything which derives their data. That’s forbidden for sure. If CleastreamFX does sell anything derived from big boys data it violates or breaches legal agreement between consumer (consuming data via terminal or API) and provider and in such case it’s likely criminal act.
@CSFX is competent presenter and smart guy but he only plays his games with you guys wanting your money for nothing (ok to be fair, you’ll be taught ZigZag breakout strayegy with sort of tick volume difference oscilator). Stay safe and avoid clearstreamfx.
@HyperScalper, sorry for disturbing your thread.
