Pro Forex Secrets Predicting News Trading ( Currency Strength Trend )

[HyperScalper]

NZD (NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR) ON NO-CHANGE RATE

What we see is that NZD was already in Recovery, and the
no-change Rate decision was a good excuse for its breakout
into the second phase of recovery.

First, the Standard Chart showing the wider picture.

In one of the NZD Pairs, NZD/USD, we see that the
result is about +70 PIPs

This illustrates what we see so often, that there is no change to
an outcome, and everyone expects in advance, that the Interest
Rate here will not be changing.

Nevertheless, the Trading Market moves the Currency in order to
profit, since prices need to move, and money needs to be made
of course

hyperscalper

[HyperScalper]

WEAKNESS IN EUR IS A BUYING OPPORTUNITY MEDIUM TERM

Let’s shift gears slightly, away from News Event trading, and look at
the Standard Chart showing 6 weeks. Trading the Fives is basically
looking to BUY a Currency which is under -5, and also SELLing a
Currency which is above +5.

Now, these are the slow movements of the Market, so we are talking
about holding the position for a day, and out to a week.

The EUR is in a strong down-trend; and has been on that trend
for all of this week, so we are looking to BUY it
at the Close of Trading on Friday, if that continues.

[analysis] Since GBP has left the European Union, it should be
more “decoupled” from the EUR, so the Currency Pair we could
consider watching is EUR/GBP, which we would aim to BUY as
a possible candidate… GBP is at the “double top” of its 6 week
range, so I’d expect a weakening, along with a strengthening of
EUR coming up…

Updates to come, as we follow EUR for a week or so…

Using 24 hour Divergence, we are led to the EUR/GBP Pair, as
you can see below

For the purposes of this thread, the aim is to be led to the
Currency Pair, through behavior of the Currency Strength
trending… Wish me luck; I’m going in…

[outcome] As you can see below, there was a very long
wait where both GBP and EUR were “frozen”, and then
the move took place for +30 PIPs in EUR/GBP

So, it is often necessary to wait for the moves we are
able to predict.

[currency pair] Here is the Price action corresponding to
this dual move of EUR and GBP for +30 PIPs

[NOTE-ON-TARGETS AND RETRACEMENT]
I would be remiss if I did not say that this trade ran to
+30 PIPs… but, it also did subsequently retrace back
to ZERO PIPs. So taking reasonable targets while
they are on the table is very important to consider !!!

hyperscalper

[frandlost]

I’m on board with a EUR/GBP Long. Limit order deep in support/demand at .82770

Monthly lows along the low .83000s - high .82900s zone, from Aug, Sept, Dec 2016 and Apr 2017.

Most recent Monthly low Dec 2018, .82694

If that doesn’t hold may drop to .78775 zone. If that doesn’t hold fasten your seatbelt!

KC

[HyperScalper]

BASICS OF TRADING TECHNIQUE

1. Entering a market should be a process and almost never
   a single event.

2. Multiple price points establish a more
   favorable Volume Weighted Cost Basis or break-even.

3. Assume that up to perhaps 30 PIPs of Price Adversity
   may be involved, and plan for that as a worst case. Distribute
   your price points across that range, until you reach your
   desired total commitment size.

As they say, YMMV (Your Mileage May Vary) as we say in
the U.S. but these principles are the best way to
scale into a medium to long term position.

hyperscalper

[HyperScalper]

AUD MONETARY POLICY MEETING MINUTES

Now there’s a “ZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzz” wake me up later
moment !! Nevertheless, let’s look at the Currency and
see that we can predict some weakening on the
release of the minutes.

Not much going on, as this is a U.S. President’s Day
holiday, so everything a bit slow. Let’s see what happens

[OUTCOME] Oddly enough, as sometimes happens
the devaluation of AUD happened early as we see
with this 6h Dvg perspective (gold line)

So let’s count that prediction a WIN

hyperscalper

[HyperScalper]

A GBP annd CAD symmetric divergence was resolved for 20-25 PIPs

The next shot is the Divergence setup.

hyperscalper

[HyperScalper]

CASE STUDY OF CURRENCY DIVERGENCE

…and a MISSED OPPORTUNITY lesson for us all !

BACKGROUND: I entered LONG in GBP/CAD, and waited for
quite a while for +20 pips, which I took.

THEN there was a retracement back to baseline, so I
was very happy that I had taken those profits.

BUT, now to the missed opportunity portion.

I did not re-enter and hold on the retracement and
here’s what happened:

Above, the highlighted portion is the +20 which I
took. But I failed to re-enter on retracement and hold
and you can see that I missed up to +90 pips when
the London Session kicked in !!

Here is the Currency movement, showing that the
Lion’s share of the Pair’s movement was contributed
by a Rally in GBP when the London Session began

I’m happy that I called the original modest trade and profits,
but frustrated that I neglected to re-enter on the retracement
and hold for the long +80 pips move…

IN MY CASE, I THINK THE MISSED OPPORTUNITY IS
A LESSON LEARNED

WHAT DOES THIS HAVE TO DO WITH NEWS EVENTS?
Well, one way to think of the London Session is that it a
Daily Event for which there are daily setups, coming
out of the Asian Session. In that loose sense, it is a
daily event which is not unlike a major News Event… Hmmm

[ANALYSIS] Can we see the setup ahead of the London
Session? Yes, it’s a “piece o cake” as follows, shown
with 36 hour Divergence, where GBP has a clear setup

hyperscalper

[HyperScalper]

AUD EMPLOYMENT EASILY PREDICTED

[PRICE] If we take AUD/JPY as an example, we see
more than -40 PIPs Price excursion

hyperscalper

[HyperScalper]

TUMBLE OF JAPENESE YEN UNEXPECTEDLY STRONG

Here we can see that JPY has falled off a cliff, breaking a
longstanding range.

It took my JPY trades to stops ! LOL

[ANALYSIS] We can see that JPY tumbles to 6 week
support levels, while USD breaks out of a double top !

Impressive to see this happening, perhaps driven by
the novel Corona Virus pandemic, among other
significant shifts.

hyperscalper

[frandlost]

I’m happy that I called the original modest trade and profits,

but frustrated that I neglected to re-enter on the retracement

and hold for the long +80 pips move…

I find this challenging to do. I tend to close and walk away. What I have to do is take pips off the table and “stay in the ring” to observe.

KC

[HyperScalper]

NEWS EVENT PREDICTING WEAKENING CAD ON GDP

Nice scalp on Friday, predicted in advance, of a likely weakening
CAD on upcoming GDP news announcement.

Indeed, it was a great little scalp. I chose BUY EUR/CAD in
a falling CAD, and here is the result (need to switch over
to my mobile for the image):

(just the 4 EUR/CAD entries)
[edit] NOTE that Coinexx is a GMT+2 server broker…

Above shows the Price action, and also that following the scalp
closure, the Price retraced, so it was a short term trade cluster.

hyperscalper

[HyperScalper]

PREDICTING ECB MONETARY POLICY NEWS

Here we can easily predict the huge spike in EUR on the News.
EUR is shown as the GREEN trace. Ignore the middle horizontal
traces. We see EUR lowered for a significant period prior to
the News, as it was widely anticipated to be favorable.

[EDIT] Again, we see that a down bubble was created and
that EUR simply returned to the status quo ante on the News.

hyperscalper

[HyperScalper]

PANDEMIC FOREX TRADING

We have seen total transformation in Financial Markets, and
Forex is no exception. However, that may mean that News Events
on the Calendar are less important than Global Rumo(u)rs and
the depressing prospect of The New Pandemic Normal.

Nevertheless, we have tools, and information to formulate
profitable Forex trades. Firstly, let’s look at the 6 week general
behavior of the Forex Market:

THIS VOLATILITY COLLAPSE can result in misleading
judgements as concerns Divergence Views. This is where
training/mentoring comes in; or at least experience and
some deep thought about what’s being said. For
example, let’s look at this Divergence:

It is a 48 hour Divergence which properly suggests that
we should consider SELLing into AUD/USD. Now let’s
look at this longer Divergence:

At first glance (without thinking carefully) you might say the AUD is
extremely STRONG. However, you should be cautious, due to what
I could call Divergence Distortion.

To illustrate Divergence Distortion; look at this longer Divergence
which suggests an astounding valuation of AUD, which is COMPLETELY
WRONG and is due to the General Collapse of Range, which we
see in the Standard Chart above. Look at this:

Just be careful interpreting this, since over that same period
of weeks, such a huge change occurred in the Range of the
Standard Charts.

hyperscalper

[HyperScalper]

PANDEMIC PERSPECTIVE

The novel virus Pandemic has change the relative importance of
ordinary Forex news events. Employment news no longer means much,
since we know it’s a catastrophe; and Bank Rates are also no longer
of much significance RELATIVE TO the disruptions of the Virus.

So, it’s best if we transition advice toward SWING TRADING and
toward MEDIUM TERM investing (up to 1-2 weeks) based upon
CURRENCY STRENGTH TREND relationships.

THE GOOD NEWS is that Forex is much less disrupted than other
markets; and there are always tradable relationships, as ‘the new normal’
is established

hyperscalper

[HyperScalper]

PANDEMIC NEWS TRADE PREDICTION

As things settle down, we’re going to see whether we can
predict CAD’s Bank Rate decision tomorrow. As things
stand now; CAD is well positioned to RISE, as you can
see:

Several “features” including “spike down” events strongly
suggest CAD well positioned to RISE.

WILL UPDATE THIS AS WE GET CLOSER…

[UPDATE] An hour ahead of the Bank of Canada we are
seeing CAD well-positioned for a RISE on the News Event:

[FINAL] Well, we did not see the expected rise in
CAD, as shown by this update:

We know CAD will eventually rise; but it looks like
a week long trade, should that happen…

hyperscalper

[HyperScalper]

OVER- OR UNDER- VALUATION OF A CURRENCY PAIR

…and retracement of Price.

Consider this example of a valuation anomaly which reverts:

Here EUR (green) NZD (pink) is over-valued in the Currency Cluster,
and indeed we see that it is a good SELL (aka “short”) opportunity
which resolves nicely.

hyperscalper

[HyperScalper]

HEY, WHY NO POSTS?
PREDICTING MAJOR CURRENCY PAIR MOVES

Don’t lose interest, Dear Trader; as I’ve just been busy with other
stuff. However, let me show you a prediction from the Friday
Close as concerns NZD and JPY which played out “Bigly”
(in the words of our Dear President) so that you won’t
lose all hope; and will continue to…

THINK IN CURRENCIES

So, here’s the situation on Friday, where I predicted to my
dwindling group of Forex traders that NZD was very likely
undervalued, and JPY was likely over-valued. So that means
that NZD/JPY would be a very good BUYING opportunity.

No one believed me, of course. So here’s what the setup
looked like. (It takes experience evaluating these things,
so this is not a “CHECK ENGINE” approach to trading)

So we see the significant under-valuation of NZD as we closed
the session.

Cutting to the chase scene… here’s how NZD/JPY recovered:

So that recovery in excess of +100 PIPs would have been
a great result !

Good Trading !
hyperscalper

[HyperScalper]

LET’S GET BACK TO NEWS PREDICTION

Two cases here; one was NZD Rate Decision, and the other was
USD Housing Sales.

In BOTH cases, the Currencies initially set themselves up OPPOSITE
of their preferred move, which is in line with our “First Move Hypothesis”.

USD is the deep RED, and NZD is the funky PINK…

So, despite COVID-19 is it possible that NEWS IS BACK ??? lol

hyperscalper