CAD/JPY Long, filled at 76.50
target 77.25
stop 76.40
risking 0.35%
USD/JPY Long @ 77.80
Stop 77.35
target 78.80
risking 0.5%
EUR/USD Long @ 0.8590
Stop 0.8570
Target 8650
risking 0.40%
Half of CAD/JPY long is taken off at 76.76,
profit : 0.455%
2nd Target: 77.10
EDIT: stop moved to 76.60 - locking in another 0.175% profit
CAD/JPY closed out at 77.00 for 2nd target,
profit on this trade: 1.33%
4:1 return on the risk, 10 pip stop.
EUR/USD short - 1.3815
Risking 0.40%
Stop 1.3832
target 1.3775 for half,
1.3705 for the final half
exited half of trade at 1.3790
profit of 0.33% so far.
Are these trades based largely on the method in the videos? I’ve been wondering how small a timeframe would still allow for an effective edge.
On a 15 minute timeframe, would say, a day’s worth of no retracements into a price be long enough for that price to be considered ‘virgin’ price territory?
eur/usd trade closed out 50% of remaining (0.10%) at 1.3770… will update final profit and current profit soon.
Jay
P.S. Stops moved to BE
FInal quarter of original position taken out at 1.3755 - 4:1 reward:risk on last bit…for a 0.4% return on it
other quarter of original position taken out at 1.3770 - 3:1 reward:risk… for a 0.3% return on it
First half of original position take out at 1.3790 - 1.66:1 reward:risk - for a 0.33% return on it
Total return on this trade eur/usd short - 1.03%
Desmond…the CAD/JPY trade is largely based off of whats in the videos…at least those concepts. Fresh daily levels… previous daily highs/lows… supply/demand as explained in the sam seiden videos
the eur/usd short isn’t really… but figured i’d like to show what is possible in the markets (for better or worse!!!)
To answer your question… no. I woulnd’t say a days worth of no retracements into a price be long enough to consider virgin.
A daily turning point that has not been retraced to is the only thing that is.
In the CAD/JPY…price broke out strong to the upside… and then retraced back to the point of breakout - 76.69ish
I then zoom down as far as a 1 minute screen to find where price action, and to a lesser degree…volume, indicate that I have the highest probability of getting the absolute lowest risk for the most possible reward.
So…trigger on a 1 min… looking at all time frames in between…but the level itself? virgin daily.
Ran about 7:1 pretty quickly…i took it out a bit too early…as I usually do.
Same thing in eur/usd. took it out too early…shoulda kept original target. But…getting an average return of 4:1 and 2.5:1 is nothing to sneeze at. Just goes to show if you can pinpoint the market turning point…you can mismanage your exits pretty badly and still make a phenominal return.
Jay
Current profit for the week based on trades taken here: +0.53%
I’ll see if i can push some impressive numbers for the rest of the week. This isn’t really super impressive (though some of the entries were pretty great market turning points if i do say so myself!)
Jay
Last trade (for the day anyway). this will be valid anytime in the next 16 hours unless I state otherwise.
Short eur/usd at 1.3632
Target 30 pips
stop 30 pips
risking 0.50%
This is very helpful and clear ~ I suppose you have other criteria not yet discussed for the eur/usd short? Which I can fully appreciate; I’m just trying to ensure that I’m able to associate methods to trades, even if I don’t understand all the methods yet.
Sorry if I am missing something with this trade since this is the first one I looked at. I did go through the videos and just started following a long. At the 1.3632 wouldn’t it be better to try for a long at this level instead of a short. To me it looks like a support level or demand level.
I can kind of see what you are trying to do with 30 pip profit. I see you trying to reach down to yesterdays low and maybe hoping it will take out the stops under this low. I’m I correct, if not could you explain why you think a short here would be good.
Thanks
I was kinda thinking that too. I would have thought that 1.3832 would have been a good place to go short, a pullback up into a minor supply zone, and then resuming back into the down trend…maybe he has a typo…lol.
Ehhh… this is a “special trade”… it has nothing to do with classical supply/demand concepts as explained by myself or sam seiden (and so, I now see without a doubt the need to create a different thread to post my trades under!)
There is a large options position there that if price touches it, the option will expire worthless. It is a very large position, and the thinking is that a large financial institution (like the kind who sell options to others) will be willing to make sure that price touches it, and the option expires worthless (saving them a massive payout)
So, once we get about 30 pips away from the level, it will be “cost effective” for them to inject liquidity (sell orders) into the market in an attempt to force price down to make sure that level is touched, thus eliminating the need for them to pay out. (The pay out reflects hundereds of millions or billions of dollars… so it’s really in their best interest to force price down)
This is a fairly exotic trade, and one that I won’t be explaning much on babypips, since the person who enlightened me to this type of trade wouldn’t appreciate it.
Option or no option… keep in mind a few things and this may help your trading:
Larger institutions (hedge funds, some banks, large traders who don’t hedge, but speculate) are a very large part of the marketplace (35%-45%), and they are they ones who will “stop hunt” in order to find liquidity for their orders.
“Price moves to size” - essentially, these larger traders have such large orders that if they just sell at any ol’ price… they will end up crushing the market and getting a very bad fill. They need to sell where there are A LOT of buy orders to absorb their large sell order - thus, allowing them to sell a whole lot of a market WITHOUT slippage - ensuring they make the most money possible.
So, we know they will push price into these zones of “large liquidity”, ie: size. Now… how does one find out where a large cluster of buy orders or sell orders are? Lets think for a minute…hmm… well, i know a LOT of folks play breakouts, and a lot of folks put stop losses under and over previous swing lows/highs
For example: GBP/USD during london close on october 31st. What we had here was a “false breakout”. Price pushed up to a new high, breaking the high of last week by only a few pips. Then, it crashed down. But there was really nothing false about it. Large banks knew people who were short had stop losses above the previous high of october 28th, of 1.6152. A stop loss on a short trade is really a “buy order” (buy to cover and close the position).
ALso, lots of people would be “following the trend”, and “buy the breakout to new highs!!!”. These are also buy orders.
So, a bank(s) or hedgefund(s) or some very powerful financial entity that wants to sell A LOT of gbp/usd (think: hundereds of millions or even a billlion +) would love to find a place where there were possibly, at least 100 - 200 milllion in buy orders so they could sell a large position at top dollar, without pushing the market down 100 pips while doing so.
So, say about 1 hour before london close, price was sitting around 1.6050. Lets say they did the math…and figured above 1.6150 there are about 200 million in “buy orders” (both short stops and long breakout entries)
Lets say that they figured at that time in the market… it would cost them about 100 million in buy orders to push price up 100 pips from 1.6050 to 1.6150…
So, They decide to quickly dump 100 million into the gbp/usd market. this pushes price right up into the 1.6150 level. Only problem is…they want to be SHORT, not long…and now they are long 100 million worth.
AHHH! but this is why they needed to hit above 1.6150. Above 1.6150, there are approx 200 million in sell orders.
So, they quickly sell their 100 million long position for a profit…then, they can sell 100 million more as a short position, and they are able to do so at the absolute market top.
With no more buy orders left at the top…they can sell just a few million more…and start to crush the market. As they market drops…all those people who “bought the breakout to go long” realize they are on the wrong side of the market… and as they get crushed the cover - thats right…by selling. This selling accellerates the downward move, and does the bank or hedgefunds work for them.
They sold at the top by creating a "false breakout " because that is where they found enough buy orders to absorb their large sell orders. Then, by selling just a little bit more, they put long positions into a squeeze…and as the market drops, those longs cover by selling…which does the work for the large selling institution. All those longs who are now selling just push price down further… guaranteeing the large institution a quick profit.
Of course, this is where I also took a short position (indicated on an earlier post), and how i had the confidence to hold it 90 pips, and how i figured that it would drop at least 200 pips, and part of the reason how also knew that it may indeed be the very high of the gbp/usd market for quite a while to come (at least a few days…likely a few weeks)
So you see… this was really a sophisticated stop hunt, and there was nothing “false” about the “false breakout” - it was simply a large insitution looking for size - size enough to fill their massive short order at the top of the market.
I explain this trade I took here…the gbp/usd short, and my comments as I took it, because it is concepts like this that are encouraging me to take this “push into the option at 1.3600” trade. I won’t explain this particular options trade any more than I already have…
but know that this is really trading “pure” supply and demand, and the lack of liquidity in between. Large traders know where your stops are likley to be (or in the case that they own your forex broker, or buy their “order flow”, they literally know exactly where your stops will be, and how much they are worth), and they use this knowledge to allow them to know where they can fill their orders at your expense.
If you know the direction that most large traders are likely to be trading… you can use this to know where they will push price into stops and limit orders in order to fill their large positions at the best possible price. So you know where they will push price (and you can join in the push), and you know where they will likely reverse price (so you can cover on your push, and switch and go short or long as they do…often at the very top or very bottom of a market)
This concept was how i made the eur/usd trade I did earlier…the short around 1.3815 As I type this…price is lower by 140 pips.
This is how you can take a 15 pip stop, and make several hundered pips, on a regular basis. Powerful stuff.
Jay
EUR/USD - Long at 1.3665
stop 25 pips - 1.3640
target 50 pips - 1.3715
risking 0.5%
Short 1.3699 target 3682, stop 3710,
risking 0.35%
eur/usd
stops moved to BE on eur/usd short from 1.3699.
target almost hit