Trade closed at 1.3686 on eur/usd
profit 0.445%
short eur/usd 1.3697, stop 10 pips
target 15
risxking 0.25%
exit eur/usd short at 3687
0.25% profit
I quite like reading accounts like this, but when I try to incorporate this into a strategy, it comes out something like this:
- Identify a supply level.
- Wait for price to rise to this level once again.
- Place a sell order in the supply level, just below the best resistance line.
- Place a stop-loss order 10-15 pips above the supply level.
- No! Wait! If a major bank is driving the price up, don’t do that, you’ll get stopped out!
It’s really simple, as long as you know what the big banks are doing. I don’t.
Pajo, if yoru stop is some pips above the supply level like you outlined…and the supply level your taking is based within a “fresh” daily supply level, then you should have a good chance of accounting for both the “sell orders” that are placed within that supply zone, and…in case the larger players push into liquidity to fill a particularly LARGE sell order… you have your stops 10-15 pip above the zone, juist in case said larger player uses the BUY STOP orders placed up their to fill their large sell order.
And what if your wrong…and they push higher and you get stopped out?
Well, that’s why, as you can see, i have losing trades. I don’t obsess over “oh man! is this one gonna work!? if it doesn’t, i’ll lose money!!”
Wrong mentality. I thinkg “This has a 65%+ chance of working. if larger institutions push price up higher for a larger sell order than, say, my stop that is 10 pips above the top of my supply level…OR, if i’m just simply wrong on this being a market turning point…then i’m gonna lose. That’ll happen maybe this time. heck, i got a 1 in 3 or 1 in 4 chance…this could be the one! cool. Doesn’t matter. I’ll make it back on the others that do work…and probably get more than 1:1 when they do.”
And also…if you’ll notice on the gbp/usd trade…i’m not afraid to get stopped out and possibly re-enter if i see price action, volume, lack of follow through, correlated markets dropping fast…etc.
Sometimes I’ll take 2 or 3 stabs at it to get it right. ALthough, I’ll admit i’m reducing that from what I used to do… trying to get it right the first time really… however, my newer modified approach does not negate the fact that re-entry, when you have solid reason to do so, is a viable strategy.
That being said, you can lose your butt if you don’t know what your doing with re-entry.
The most important factor to remember is forget about being right. Casinos would never make a dime if they needed to be right all the time. My trades win more ofthen than most casinos win on any given hand in blackjack.
Bottom line: Forget being right…know that “most things lining up” is good enough. If it aint good enough, then trading is gonna be a hard business for somone.
You have rules. you have a methodology, you have a way to put the odds in your favor, and a way to make sure that if your trade starts going a fair amount of the way to your target, that you will make money with it…meaning you don’t need to be right. you just need probabilities
And that’s as good as it gets.
Jay
P.S.
Long eur/usd at 3681, stop at 3672
risking 0.25%
target 3698
ALTERATION: target adjusted to 3710
TRADE STOPPED OUT, loss of 0.25%
Ok…long was triggered at 3665. modified stop to 30 pips. still risking 0.5%
Don’t forget to check for other confluences like pivots and fibs at these levels. No we don’t know what the banks or option players are going to do, but like Jay said, it’s a game of probabilities, and the more “barriers” you have at these levels, the higher the probability it will hold and give enough of a bounce to make some pips…stacking the odds in our favour I believe he calls it. 
I took two small trades earlier in the Asian…both had about a 20 pip stop and an initial target of 30 pips. First was USDCAD with a short bounce off 1.0210. The factors there were a weekly high, daily high and a daily R1 pivot. I only let it go 10 pips before closing because it was 2nd bounce so I didn’t push it. The 2nd was a long AUDUSD at 1.0216. It was in the 127.2% oversold area of last weeks range, daily S1 pivot, 127% of daily fib, and a prior demand zone from Oct 21st. I also only let it go 12 pips before closing out early. They both would have hit their targets which is about a typical range for the Asian session unless there’s a high impact news release which I would stay out for anyways.
Just following these guidelines has brought my demo balance back up into profit this last week or so. Next is to keep following them and see how it goes. 
Thanks Jay for the effort you are putting to helping us newbies. Reading through the thread and watched the videos once.
Need more study yet before getting involved. Keep up the good work and thanks to all the other contributors.
Tony
Took profit on eur/usd at 30 pips on 1/3 of position.
moved stops to BE, Take 1/3 again at 1.3705, let the rest run until 1.3745
profit 0.165% so far, trade now in a no risk situation.
Jay
Here are a few pics of this eur/usd trade I still have 1/3 of my position in on.
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
THe above pic is a 15 minute chart of eur/usd. My blue arrow down below indicates my order as it filled. Notice how we pushed JUST BELOW the asian session lows? wanna know why? because asian session traders who went long would logically put stops down below that price. Those lows were around 1.3666. The london open low? around 1.3657.
Pop the stops of the longs, providing the london session traders to fill their long orders using the previous long order stops 
Thus, filling their big orders with very little slippage
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Here’s another pic of a 1 hr chart…same thing, except notice how the 1 hr “pinbar” low on the left side of the picture makes for a nice 1 hr demand zone.
So, you got liquidity available as asian session stops are popped, and you have right below THAT even more long orders…
essentially a layer of stops (which will be limit orders to go short), and right below that, a layer of limit long orders.
Push into liqidity, fill YOUR long orders using the stops of others, knowing u likely got a bunch of long orders right below your fill that will provide YOUR LONG POSITION WITH SUPPORT? Oh yea…this is the type of situation that big traders salivate over.
A pretty no brainer trade. As I type this, it’s up 60 pips…and I got in 8 pips off the low of the london session so far.
Jay
Last target hit on eur/usd long… at 3745.
that’s 80 pips, risking 30.
will give the total P/L update in the next post.
Likely done for the day… short order down below around 1.3630 cancelled for now
Jay
Ok…todays profit (unless one of my longer term levels triggers…which i doubt will happen), is 1.28%
up about 1.81% this week…never risking even 1% on a single entry into the market…and rarely over 0.5%.
We’ll see what happens tomorrow (could lose it all of course, so don’t take my trades)
Jay
Ok… here’s one that I may not be awake for… but i really like the possiblity here, so i’m gonna keep it on the small side, since I likely won’t be around to take profits or adjust stops once it triggers.
Risking 0.25%
entry 1.3819 - short eur/usd
46 pip stop
90 pip target
===============================
Also, short eur/usd @ 1.3849
risking 0.25%
50 pip stop
target 150
hope it works! (but don’t really care if it doesn’t…as one single trade never matters)
Jay
P.S. to be cancelled at close of U.S. session
Well…still up, and filled at 3818 short.
Hi Jay
Off to bed 1.00 in morning here work in 5 hours check in tomorrow. Thanks for the thread.
tony
due to euro rate cut, moving target on 1/2 position down to 1.3650
Profit taken on 1st half of position, 0.25% profit. target on remaining half of position moved down to 1.3650
Nice one, Jay. I took this trade and it has just worked out, virtually to the pip. I’m trading spot, and noticed that the entry was just below the R1 and the target just around the daily pivot point. Was this a supporting factor in your liking for the trade?
So much for an early bedtime for me! Anyway… Prospector, i’ll sum it up quick. the DX is just pulling off a 10 year record extreme indication in the COT (I expect a 1000 pip+ move in the euro from the highs a few days ago… Short) world is focused on euro and greece state… and outlook (and sentiment) are bearish.
Also, a few news announcements over the wires were generally of bearish sentiment. So, i just needed to look for a place that would most likely have the highest are of buy orders…be them stops or entries long. Just above yesterdays highs of 1.3828 was the most likely spot…nothing else really coming up until 3880. And I doubt with sentiment being so bearish that large institutions would want to committ to buying enough to push price that high (because then they have to dump what they bought…AND sell enough to fill their large short order)
U.S. open…price was right around that high from yesterday. pop stops, fill up short, market drops.
bearish news on rate cut was just lucky.
Jay
short @ 1.3632 on eur/usd
stop 27 pips, target 27 pips
risking 0.3%