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Hi Jay…

I think overall, you summed it up pretty well with ‘so, u see…it’s really a matter of persepective… and it is also two seperate issues’

Every trader will have a difference in mentality and trading styles all of which will suit them best i guess… Saying that, i largely agree with what you say overall, and tbh what you refer to as a ‘psycholigcal problem’ of not being able to buy or sell at the top or bottom, imo, is a good mentality to have when it comes to trading… I’m still quite young (and by that i mean still 20 and in university lol), and have been studying business since my GCSE’s, and i think the thing that has been drilled in over and over is when your in a business - maximize profits, minimize costs…

However, i believe a large part of this is obviously like you pointed out about managing capital [I]after[/I] a trade has begun - to get in on the trade to begin with, someone has to have a lot of confidence in their strategy, this leads to less hesitation when entering and ultimately being able to buy or sell at the top or bottom… But i think its ultimately having that faith in their strategy where most seem to go wrong and emotions will get tied in…

I’ll be sure to keep this all in mind myself of course when i finally feel confident enough to go live!

Anyway, thanks for posting back, will be following allowing…

Regards

Sanj

Hi there, I’ve studying S & D through watching Sam Seiden’s webinars and Kenneth Lee’s thread on forex factory. I stumbled upon this thread and it has really increased my understanding of S & D trading. It is really starting to make sense thanks to Eremarket.

One thing I’am unsure or don’t understand though is the ‘no trade zone’ between the 38 and 50 fib. Eremarket or someone else please explain why this is a ‘no trade zone’. Thanks!

Its basically a mid-ground where price is and if price is there on your HTF don’t trade. You don’t know where price is going to go basically it could go long or short.

To expand on what Tansen said… keep in mind that fib levels have nothing specifically to do with sup/dem levels. I use fibs frequently, but just know that I use them to give me CONFLUENCE on a particular S&D level… they do not define S&D levels themselves.

Ok, that being said the idea is this: Value in a market exists for BUYERS when price is very low, So low in fact that LOTS of people want to buy, and relatively few want to sell (everyone wants to buy on sale!). Value in a market exists for SELLERS when price is very high, and there are LOTS of people who want to sell, and relatively few who want to buy. (because everyone wants to sell when they can sell for top dollar!)

So, just in terms of basic economic sense… last week established a price range… and at at the high of last week, there were lots of sellers, and not nearly enough buyers. Obviously this is true…because at that point…selling overcame buying, and price never went higher during that week.

And, also, at the low of last week…there would have been lots of buyers, but not enough sellers. Obviously this is true, because at that point, buying took over… selling ran out…and price had to move up.

SO… We want to buy where we know there is LIKLEY to be lots of willing buyers, and not very many sellers. If we can buy where everyone wants to buy, and no one wants to sell…our buy order will make a good fast profit.

So…if we buy closer to the low of last week…it gives us an above average chance of buying when the market is out of sellers…and just buyers are left.

And…in that middle range… we don’t want to do anything. why? because we can’t be sure if there is LIKLEY to be more buyers, or if there is LIKLEY to be more sellers!

Look, it’s like this: Gas prices in my area are around $3.75 a gallon. Tomorrow, if gas prices were somehow $10.00 a gallon… the gas stations would LOVE IT! they would probably even give away free food, and hire chicks in bikinis to pumpu gas for free… JUST to get customers in the door! every gas station in my neighborhoon would LOVE to be a seller…

but ya know what? no one would want to be a buyer. This is the price you would love to be in the gas station business, selling gas. I got it, you need it, and you’ll pay me $10.00 a gallon?! fantastic!

Conversely, if tomorrow, gas (petrol for all the euro locals here) was somhow down to only $1.00 a gallon…man the gas stations would be crying… but the public would be forming lines 3 miles long…going around the block 2 times…just to fill up their tanks. EVERYONE would be a buyer! you would HATE to be in the gas station business on this day!

BUt now…prices are only $3.75. No one rushes to get “a good deal”…and no one is falling over themselves to be able to sell extra gas. You have gas sellers…you have gas buyers… you have some of both.

I don’t know about you… but if I had my choice, I would only want to sell gas if i could get $10 a gallon for it tomorrow.

And, if i had my choice, i would only want to buy gas if it was $1.00 tomorrow.

If I didn’t NEED GAS for my car (and last I checked, you don’t NEED any currency pair you trade… except you WANT it to make money…but you don’t NEED it) I would NEVER buy OR sell it at $3.75…because i really don’t have any great reason to believe it is sure to make me a fortune either way. It’s a fair price for a fair market. and I don’t want a fair price. I want the deal of a lifetime.

So buy low. Sell high. Forget the middle…unless u like to pay your brokers bills.

Get It? Hope so! :slight_smile:

Jay

BTW… it’s the 38% -62% fib is the no buy zone…not the 38 - 50%

Thanks Jay. Good explanation. Appreciated.

So Jay, (or anyone else who uses this technique) do you personally ever reset your no buy zone in the middle of the week based on, say, the last 5 days or do you keep it the same thru the entire week? For instance mon, tues and wed all trend up and price is 300-400 pips away from where we started would you redraw the zone?
cc

hi - just found this thread - plenty to go thru - it mentions a chat room on page 2 . Hav u got your own private one or do u use baby pips ‘chat room’ thanks
ray

Hi all,

I just found this very nice thread, I am learning FX for two years and I finally ended with Seidens S/D trading method. Love pure PA trading. Wish many pips to all of you and want to ask if the chat room here is still working and if one seat is still free. I want to learn any info about SD trading, just saw the youtube webinars and the fibo idea is very good. I am using Bolinger 50.

THX for any answer, Renda

Renda-
Me too came across Seiden’s S/D method and am trying to spot S/D on charts.(lost one trade already, doing this… ouch). Oh well that is just one trade I lost with this new method I am trying to learn. So no biggie.
Eyes have to learn to spot these levels.
Fresh level he says.
I was trying to back test this strategy and it feels like sometimes you might not get any trade using this method.
And if you do get a trade and you loose you wait again for another trade to form.

I am trading SD about two months, this technique is very strong. I have a Q is everyone using only virgin zones, I have problems to decide if the zone is realy not touchted by some strong but old DS level. How far in history you look for SD zones?

Virgin zones is what Seiden says has the highest probability/low risk. However, if a level has been visited once I think it can be used again for entry.
I had my supply zone marked at 0.83607-0.83743 for NZD/USD. I got stopped out for 15 pips. Then I noticed it was not a fresh level. Also some news was out for NZD which kept pushing the pair higher towards the yearly highs.
Then I made a mistake, I saw one small red candle and thought since it is right above the demand level now it can only drop. Lost another 20 pips to that.(Now this seems like total silly reason to enter the short trade)
Still working on this myself and can use any help from the experts.

Had another Supply zone marked at 0.91562 in USD/CHF. My order did not get filled here and the pair went up for good 80-90 pips. :mad:


Hi, could someone tell me please if this 1d demand zone is correct and if this trade failed without my error. I was stopped on this, I did not draw 1h zones etc.Just want to know if this zones are OK. Please someone with live trading experience. Thank you all.

I do have a live account. But I can’t say I am very much experienced.
Looking at that chart. I don’t see why demand should be there.
Also I do consider daily bias. So just looking at those candles, it seems like it is bear bias. I would be looking to sell that pair on smaller time frames.

P.S- It might be helpful to take the grid off from your chart. Unnecessary distraction.

Unfortunately I just found this thread. Are you going to be doing any more live webcasts. I did watch the videos that you posted on youtube and found that you use an interesting twist on finding high probability trades and would like to see some done real time.

Thanks, Steve

Do you really want to be mentored by this guy? JaysProject System | Myfxbook

Thanks for that info - I am always looking for better ways to define entry points for trades. I have learned some of the S and D method and thought his method of further refining it was interesting. But those results didn’t look to good.

Steve, I’d personally reccommend becoming a student of ICT - a trader who regularly aims to help traders like us on this website…

He has his own thread which you can find - 301 Moved Permanently

In terms of entry, a video link you’ll find on his first page cover 'OTE - Optimal trade entry. But as with any tool in your box, should be used with other confluences…

Good luck :57:

Jay gave me this link once to track his performance…XSquaredTrading System | Myfxbook
I am really surprised because he wanted to teach people and seems his doing very bad so far.

Thanks,

I have started watching ICT’s videos and they are a great help. I wish I would have seen them before I blew up my first account, but then I probably wouldn’t have listened.

Steve

In response to the two links to MyFXbook.com. One account is in real dollars and is doing very badly, the other is a demo account (The Xsquared one) I think that could explain the difference between the two.

Not being too critical but if you look at the individual trades there seems to be inconsistant money management with losses ranging from 0.01% to 3+%. 3% is a lot to risk in one hit. Also there are a lot of trades made each day… the broker will love this guy!