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Observing all of this very carefully. Any difference in tactic if such a trade is taken with, or counter, to current market direction on say a daily time frame?

great webinar, eremarket. tnfortunately, I had to leave early. hope to catch you again soon!

Once again. Great session with eremarket! Many thanks for what he has been doing and doing it with such a great heart :slight_smile: Pips and ticks, here they come!

Great time tonight really firmed up my knowledge and got into some more advanced concepts. I hope to continue learning from you and your system. And bring trading into my own life. Also I hope when I wake up the USD/JPY position will work out for both of us.

I think you need to understand a little bit more before you just go criticising blindly what others do.

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I beg your pardon. Whose criticising? He posted up a usd/cad chart with supply level comments & asked what people thought of it. Is that not asking for feedback?

I didn’t see supply at the level he highlighted, instead I posted where I considered the supply channel to be. If you pull up the chart would you care to inform me where price stalled & backed away from, & where it’s been soaking up the price action for the past 5 hours?

Ok, so the USD/JPY update pic:

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

This example was about as text book as it comes. No idea if it will make a profit or not…but so far, so good. Notice the GOOD news that came out regarding JPY today…yet…the yen LOST value to the dollar…

Reason is simple. In spite of news, or anything else for that matter… if you identify areas of more buy orders than sell orders… you can simple throw your buy order in with the rest, and watch as price moves your way.

Stop… you are correct…this is a much better supply level. The one I showed I took as a small profitable scalp in the futures market (CAD futures), and I got stopped at break even in the spot market. Here is a picture of my trade I took earlier today…which was Indeed from the level you mentioned. This was in the futures market… it would correspond to the zone you mentioned in spot. Just to clarify tho… I would measure the supply zone a bit smaller than you did… I saw supply from 9930-9960… above that would be a seperate level at 0.9990-1.001

and your right…higher up the chain would be better…so the best would be the 0.9990 level, at least as of this posting :wink: The way price returns to that level…and how low it goes before it does…could change that.

anyway…here’s my pic of the trade in USD/CAD futures (which is like trading CAD/USD… so it was a long in the futures whereas the same trade in spot would be a short)

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

I just picked 30 pips up from the GBPUSD ‘bounce upward’ from about 1.6120 just now.

What had happened, price had wicked down to 1.6122 a couple of times on the 1 hour, then a couple of barely wicked candles touched it too… then the little dip which seemed to me to be the banks scooping up stoplosses. So I bought at 1.6123 or so and then caught a nice move upwards that is still going as I write this. Already moved stop to breakeven and captured 1/3 of my trade as per Clint’s suggestion (not sure where in the forums, it’s now a printout on my desk).

This was asian session so I felt a little uncertain… yet from ICT’s pivots (next thread over) we were at smack midway between S1 and S2.

Question: was this a proper interpretation of your strategy, eremarket, or was I just fortunate?

I’d post a chart for clarity’s sake but I’m not very good at that.

Desmond…why don’t you tell me exactly where the demand zone is. on a 1 hour chart…what candles are you using to define it? Give me a start and finish to the zone… for example “previous swing low 18 hours ago established a demand zone between 0.9950 and 0.9973”

here is a pic for ya to maybe better clarify this concept:

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

USD/JPY stopped out at B/E…but I still think it illustrates a point. It is possible to know where supply and demand imbalances exist via chart analysis alone. AND, it is possible to trade profitably from this information.

Jay

This is what im looking at right now on FIBER


Found a Zone i would trade on CABLE


Pip, I like the fiber, not so keen on the cable.

Fiber is nice… but remember, it’s not the true swing high on a larger time frame. Look at the 1 hr… is that level show up as strongly there? if not… consider that.

Also, keep in mind that we are in a ranging market…look at the daily… it’s a mess of price consolidation and whipsaw.

If you take this trade (and by the way…great eye for the level… i’m taking an order there myself), I would be very aggressive in managing risk. Once this thing triggers, i’m gonna be asking myself “how can i put make this trade a no risk trade as fast as possible?” This means moving stops to break even, or even closing it early, or CANCELLING it, if price doesn’t make a smooth move into the level.

Worst thing would be for fiber to stall around 4340… sit there for a good hour or 2, and THEN move up 15 - 20 pips and trigger. This would prompt me to possibly cancel the order, or take profits very quickly.

But…great eye man… i had an order there from earlier this afternoon… so i guess we’ll both find out :wink:

Jay

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yep i took it again and got a pretty good entry. @76.334 pretty much bottom picked which is awesome for me. Took small profit this morning on the UJ because i didn’t like the way the candles. So i hope this will end up being better.

Results: so just took my profits and ran. It was lookin really really ugly. Both of my trades in UJ that were long made around 20 pips. Not what I was aiming for but you gotta take what you can get.

Thanks for responding ~

The more I look at things, the more I’m certain that I’ve either misapplied the principles or gotten very, very lucky by sheer chance. But still wondering if I didn’t call it ‘right’ somehow; I’ve had an oddly good run at trying various strategies lately.

Anyway, without further ado (and let’s hope my painstakingly made image uploads)…

What I suspected was a demand zone below 1.6120, down to perhaps 1.6110 or lower.

This wasn’t nearly as clearcut as your fine examples where price had entered a region in the past, quickly retraced and betrayed a zone of supply or demand. Price had actually made a dip through these particular levels some weeks ago, 19th/20th July, but it was right after a choppy, ranging time when it was clearly anything but a ‘demand zone.’

The reason I suspected something was up here, was because the price wicked down to the top of 1.6120… but wouldn’t break the line. A test of the level soon used up the trades, and because of demand, up it went… At least, that’s my thinking. The whole thing seemed quite iffy, save that it was also at a key “ICT” pivot level as well… that seemed like strong confirmation.

But of course, I could be analysing this all wrong, and was merely lucky. It’s very important to me to know the ‘why’ ~ there’s very little more dangerous than if I Thought I Knew What I Was Doing if in fact that isn’t the case at all.

Perhaps the question is, would this have looked like a high probability trade to yourself, or anyone else? If not… perhaps I’ve got to be more careful and cautious with methodology. And fear not if the response is negative, I have a very thick skin. I’m honoured by responses that say things like “No” or “you are wrong” as they tell me that people are free to speak plainly and honestly.


This is one me and MeiHua found Jay, let us know what u think. Thx


Am I too late? Are there still lessons being given? I would really love to attend one of the sessions. I read some of the posts by Jay and I find that they make a lot of sense. I am currently trading only stocks, and paper trading forex and futures. I think that the concepts used throughout the markets should be similar because after all it’s still demand and supply at work. Hope to get a reply soon!

By the way I’m in Asia, GMT + 8.