I’ve been thinking of the best way to explain my trading strategy. I think the best way will be to post example trade setups as they arise.
There was a recent setup on the NZD/USD a few days ago that looked like a good entry point. So lets go through it. I will say that the first few weeks of the year I haven’t been trading so I did miss this entry.
Here is the chart
This is the Daily chart for NZD/USD.
#1. As you will see it has been in an uptrend since the beginning of November. Therefore we would only be entering a BUY order. I ABSOLUTELY DO NOT trade against the trend.
#2. I placed my support and resistance lines on the chart. I have 3 horizontal support/resistance lines and 1 diagonal support/resistance line. The support/resistance lines are a key component of this strategy. I only enter a trade when price action setups occur at a support/resistance line. And from my experience, I have had a better win percentage when the trade is performed on a diagonal support/resistance line rather than a horizontal.
#3. Once I have my support and resistance lines drawn, I am waiting for price action to occur at those lines.
So what happened on the chart above. Focus on the last 8 candles. Price got to a high and then it started coming down. It just so happened that the 3rd red candle down approached not only the horizontal support line but also the diagonal support line. I really like when this happens as I have had good success when I end up entering a trade in this situation. Now I just need a signal from a candle to enter a buy position.
When looking for that candlestick signal, I will look at the DAILY, 8hr and 4hr time frames. By looking at time frames as low as 4hrs, it can allow me to catch the trade at the absolute best price, allowing me to make WAY MORE MONEY on the trade than if I waited for the signal to occur on a daily chart. But beware, price action signals on a 4hr chart will have a higher loss rate than when taking the signals on the DAILY chart.
So on this specific trade, a signal appeared on the 4hr chart as shown below. Look at the candle with the “X” below it.
This is called a “hammer”. And it occurs exactly where it needs to occur in order to be considered a valid signal. Now if you want more information about a “hammer” candle you can read about it in the baby pips school as they describe all the different candles. But basically this candle is a BUY signal. I always like to see that the filled in portion of the candle is above the support line with the tail extending through the support line. That is exactly what occurred here.
So to recap, we have an uptrend with a price action candle (the hammer) that gives a BUY signal and it occurred at both a horizontal and a diagonal support line. This would be an entry for me. But wait, there is more…
I am not big on using indicators. But the one indicator that I do use is the Fib Retracement indicator. Let’s add that in to the daily chart.
Look at that. The .5 Fib retracement occurs basically at the same place as the horizontal resistance line. This is just another piece of information that says to enter at this position. The Fib retracement levels that I like to see are the .38, the .5 and the .61 levels.
I like to use a point system, just to track if my higher point trades actually are more profitable or not. This trade gets scored as the following
WITH THE TREND: Yes
At Horizontal Support Line: Yes = 1 point
At Diagonal Support Line: Yes = 1 point
At Fibonacci Retracement Support Line: Yes = 1 point
Price Action Candlestick: Hammer = 1 point
Volume: will discuss this later. Can get 1 point from this as well
Since I didn’t discuss volume, we won’t count that point here. So this gets 4 points out of a possible 5 points. I do think this trade has a high probability of success.
I guess we will see how this trade would have played out. Currently it is up a little bit. In my next post I am going to explain the entry/exit strategy on this trade. There are multiple ways to do it on this trade and each way has their own risk:reward. I’ll have to do the math, but just eye balling this trade, if I took the most aggressive trade strategy it could end up giving you returns of 20x your risk. I will explain all of this in my next post.