Pure Price Action For Dummies

What made you believe that the price would continue short and not bounce long again ?

Nice pip haul.

It doesnt really work that way unfortunately.

Looks like you saw a good set up, and price has moved in your direction.

Only problem is your trailing stop was too tight,especially for volatile pairs like GJ and got hit, causing you lots of pips.

As you can see the chart’s, Price formed a double top during New York session and started falling making LH’s. So I’ve took the trade.
Later Rating agencies news came out and prices started falling aggressively. Market was about to close, though i’d close the trade but i remember these types of news made a huge gap previously. So, I did let the trade open and bagged 100 pips more.

I know it will bounce once the market will be opened, So I’ve closed it as soon as the Newzealand session was opened and as per my guess, It did shoot during later during New York.

For the intraday bias, the EURUSD is still showing weak signals in its hourly chart, as prices are now consolidating in its overnight trading and moving now at 1.3075, and
suggest that it may further show flat signals. As its 63-day SMA (olive line) and 84-day SMA (black line) both indicates that prices might show its bearish stance and might continue its drop for the coming hours. Its three brother bearish pattern is already in place, with its 5-day EMA, already penetrated the 21-day SMA lines indicating the start of its bearish stance. The Bollinger Bands (21) is showing support for its flat stance as its upper channel is still closing its bands in order to make prices to consolidate further.

In its economic outlook, the markets are showing negative signals in its reaction, as the Italian election held on February 24 and 25 ended in victory for the center-left Democratic Party in the lower house and a fragmented outcome in the Senate. Seats secured in the senate came to 116 for former Prime Minister Berlusconi’s coalition, 113 seats for bersan’s PD, 54 for Grillo’s anti-establishment Five Stars Movement, and 18 for outgoing Prime Minister Monti’s coalition.

Thus, expect price to remain bearish as its RSI (14) and MACD (9, 26, 12) showing that prices are still below its overbought levels.

Nice analysis.

Mind me asking where did you get this from?

Cause I can tell you for a fact that the above was not written by a trader. Its written by or for a market commentator.

The sort who appear on CNBC etc etc. They are usually termed as ’ experts’. Only problem is they will never tell you to buy or sell.

They are far worst than the weatherman.

LOL weatherman huh :18:
anyway, Niki I’ve read at some page ago that right now you are no longer using correlation to strengthen you’re analysis
due to market condition. If so, what kind of confirmation signal do you use to determine daily bias?

thx in advance

Man I really get confused with to many things on the chart, no trade for me today, checked most of the pairs but unable to see where price will go.

I can open position in few pairs which are very close to higher time frame support/Resistance or touch the support/Resistance level.

But trying to avoid trade against BIAS.

feel the same. I would wait some retrace on N/U, but also U/Chf to go north! the pace is slow-motioned by other pairs. not by coincidence.

Kores I am also waiting for the pairs to form nice candle so we can celebrate with bigger amount of pips like gs8888 and Nikita.

Watching EJ pairs, daily candle looks it might shoot up.

The weatherman faces the same conundrum like us on a daily basis, rain or no? Buy or sell?

On your question, I am just using the daily and weekly candles, just two trades max. I look at each pair as stand alone.
I saw this weeks EU weekly candle touching the upper wick of the second weeks candle. I saw the two pullbacks on H1 chart. But fresh from the buy, it did not register to me.

Missed a good trade.

Correlation were the days when we could make a few hundred pips a week. Its a little harder now.

didn’t you wanted to say UJ? anyway, God bless our pips, take care :slight_smile:

thanks for the speedy reply.

I missed a good trade too today
sorry I can’t put a chart yet so I just have to tell what I think with words
EU H1 bullish candle at 7:00 GMT is a break against resistance at 1.30764
then the next candle (8:00 GMT) is a bearish testing the resistance as a support
I thought the next one is going to be an up shooter, so I place a buy order, and instead of shooting up it shoots down a bit
around 10 pips and forms a doji. I cut my trade off at about an hour at around break even because I thought I made a mistake.
The next hour (10:00 GMT) it shoots up about 40+ pips :17:

I think I should learn to have more confidence in my analysis

Not having confidence is something I still suffer occasionally. Its normal.

Give yourself a big pat on the back for being able to look out for a BPC.

That is the essence of trading this system. The most important part. The rest, like bias etc are just there to improve the odds tremendously.

Miss the BPC part, and this system is just like many out there.

I did face the same problem before and I even face it now. If i look back at my journal, maximum % of losses occur when i intervene between the trades.
I suggest you to leave the trade as such with the pre determined SL and TP, Do not intervene unless you find something strong that tell you price is not willing to go in a particular direction or even when price is about to reach a key level.

Hi,

This is a trade I’m currently in. I entered late as the correct time was the middle of the night for me. Still not hit the TP yet but fingers crossed.

[B]EU Daily[/B]

[B]EU H4[/B]

The reason for two different chart colours is because I am using two different brokers for my charts as I can’t find a broker that gives me correct charts on all TF’s.

[B]Update[/B]

Missed by 4 pips

Hello! Went long EUR/USD right now @1.3120. Is this a valid entry? Yesterday price broke trough this level an today it pulled back to it. Now I’m waiting for the continue. Yestarday was also a buy candle, so today is a buy.

Btw, I like to be criticized

Well… That didnt work so good :stuck_out_tongue:

I’m a learner rather than a trader so take my advice for what it’s worth but you seem to have identified a breakout and pullback but not a confirmation of continuation.

There is no appreciable reaction of price yet when it hit the resistance to indicate that it has turned into support.

Also your stop would appear to have been very close to price which would not give it a lot of room to breathe before taking out your stop.

Price may also be bouncing off the earlier support which may be now acting as resistance limiting the potential for price to move far into profit.

My biggest problem at the moment is actually getting into a trade, I always see reasons against getting into them would appreciate any others veiws.