Are these steps still valid?
Congrats Sharebazar. Good to hear that you bagged a lot of pips. I wish you more of such days where youâl gain such no.of pipsâŚ
Would be nice to see your trades and reasoning once all positions are closed.
I want to upload all the chart with my entry and exit unfortunately I only managed to get NU chart due to the job still working.
1D TF
Yesterday candle close bearish under the yellow line.
1 HR TF
How the price touching the S/R line Yellow line is Daily S/R and Green line is 1 HR S/R.
15 Min TF
Bottom blue line is Monthly support.
If I get time I will update the other charts.
Over all EU pair was bearish so I was looking to go short from yesterday, but today market gave me the best price to open a sell position.
Nice trading sharebazar!
Been a long long time since I saw 200 pips in one day. Maybe once Or twice I think.
Keep your emotions in check, forget about thinking that soon things will really pick up etc etc.
Forget about how much the yearly profit is going to be etc etc.
Forget that you even had such a good trade this week.
Just focus as neutral as possible on the next trade.
Keep the emotions clear.
Hi Nikita every time you write something it makes so much sense, it gives me motivation and always keeps me focus on the next trade.
Thanks a lot once again.
1âŚ,The day time frame rule is still valid.
Only invalid ones are correlation between EU and GU, plus AU and NU.
I still watch correlation, just as an extra measure sometimes, but its only for EU and UCHF.
Other changes that I have done is to cut down the number of trades per week to no more than two on full projected risk.
The other trades, if I am very tempted, I cut risk to really really low numbers. Just a trade to satisfy the itch.
2âŚ
This in turn has forced me to pay more attention to Weekly candle stick.
I tend to only go for trades that follows the bias of both DTF and WTF.
I would also like to highlight the post on the previous page or two pages before where Blackhand had asked me to describe why I would not go long on EU and EA and why am I still maintaining a bearish bias even though price had hit a big support level in W and D TF.
I did take two buy trades based on just the S&R levels, but my first hit my SL, where else my second covered the first loss and than some.
I cut off EA before the European session. I had a UCHF also, which I took profit on.
The reason I did not hold for longer is that both do not have proper pullback candles or any other reversal patterns on Weekly or even monthly timeframe.
Weekly has been solid bear for a few candles now. We cannot say that it will bounce at the next significant level. Often, price might just break through and keep barreling south, only to pullback up to this level after 4 or 5 weeks to form a BPC and continue southwards.
When we trade purely based on S&R levels without all the extra signs, than we should be prepared for bigger SLs and using pending orders on the extremes of the previous price action. That does not suit me.
On the other hand, if we are trading the monkey see monkey do thingy, than we have to also make sure that we see whats happening on a bigger TF also.
The reason we do this is so that we can cut down on the number of loosing trades. Some trades just have a higher chance of being profitable, compared to others.
We should also beware and pay attention to market conditions. Trading SnR levels purely works only when weekly or monthly is in a range.
At the moment, market is trending after a breakout south. In this kind of situation, it pays to wait for a stronger signal before attempting a reversal trade.
âOften people ask me hey does this method work? Cause I see three buy candles in a row, than one sell candle, than a buy, than a sell before it continuing as a few more buy or bull candles. That is too many false signals.â
This is where your weekly candle comes in. The three bull daily candles were the body of one bull weekly candle. The two or three days of whiplashing was the previous candles wick, usually a friday, that goes against bias. This is than followed by new weekly candle going for a support area, than shooting back up even higher. That shooting up higher is the next series of bull candles in a row on DTF.
Price moves as waves inside a wave inside a wave, on and on and on.
So its important to have a perspective of what each is doing, if compared. While the rules of the system is straightforward, we must also understand the basics of what is happening on higher TF, if we are to make sense of whats the lower TF showing.
If say the weekly and daily are bearish, shorting the pair on significant resistance, especially when a pullback is observed, most often than not, will give us very healthy profits and a very small SL.
Going against this clear order, will often see a valid signal hit SL, just to go south by one more candle, and a new signal form.
I hope this post makes sense. Its 6 am and I have not slept.
Anyone not very clear with this please let me know.
Hi Nikita ,
Iâve been interested in something youâve said a few times now about how you used to get much larger pips hauls.
Do you have a opinion on why this is? Is it the general economy, the proliferation of HFT based computer trading, a combination or something else entirely?
Do you think the market will one day return to how it was?
Thanks Nikita. That answered all of my questionsâŚfor now! Lol.
Thanks Nikita. That answered all of my questionsâŚfor now! Lol.
Well its none of the above.
Its because of the politician!
Trust them to mess everyting up, than mess it somemore trying to fix the first mess.
All these economic interventions and economic speeches, bailouts, witholding of bailouts, central banks messing with rates and interventions. Than ofcause there is the elections in these troubled states, where the outcome could easily put in a populist government which always threatens to pull out the entire deal which just took a year to hammer out, a year of endless political rethortic by politicians sending jitters through the market.
Price action suffers as a result. Whiplashing up and down, than ranging like hell just so the next announcement can be had it with and traders can resume trading etc etc.
This makes trading much much more difficult and hazardous. Not to mention setups or viable setups becoming increasingly rare and bizzare.
So this is why the markets have become progressively much more difficult.
Its like certain peope watching a tennis game each holding a raquet and adding to the game play.
So, what would be the conclusion ? Price action wouldnât be as accurate in the future as it was or as it is now ? I had the same doubt which is precisely the reason i did ask about mechanical systems taking over the market movesâŚhavenât found any clue though.
I like your philosophyâŚkeep it simpleâŚYour support and resistance style is nice and CLEAN.
The answer to this one is quite easy, sharebazar didnât know at all that the NFP would be in his favour. Admittedly he/she had a significant pip haul but but that could have just as easily been a pip loss.
PA offers no clue at all as to the expected direction of the market after an NFP announcement. You may as well just toss a coin as look at the charts. It is widely accepted in the trading fraternity that you should not trade on the day of NFP because of the unpredictability and volatility and most serious traders donât go anywhere near the markets.
I understand the âHigh Fivesâ and theâ slaps on the backâ for sharebazar but his success is more due to gambling rather than trading.
A note to newbies, NFP is fun to watch but donât ever feel that you have missed an opportunity.
Whatever the price does in the future will be known asâŚprice action! 
Its like the first week and last week of the month gs8888. Price action stalls at certain areas, whiplashes etc etc before finally hitting its highs or lows as its suppose to. This is due to news announcements, and ofcause speculation.
Compared to these two weeks, the two weeks in the middle tend to have smoother and more readable price action.
Its the same with all the market interference happening now.
Price will hit its levels, but just with more dramas in between.
Do you always enter trade and looking for SnR on the 1HR chart?
No.
My SnR levels are mainly on weekly and daily.
I only use hourly and four hourly if i am trying to jump into he action in the middle of it
So you find your supp/res levels using the daily and weekly charts. I always thiught you used the 4 hour for that. Well I think I understand what you meant though. And the intraday charts are mainly for entry?
Sorry for interrupting in the thread, Erinsunc is absolutley right regarding NFP and itâs status as a gamblerâs area, he is also correct in that many of us shy away from trading the release, I know that I certainly do.
It just that Iâm not so sure that pa doesânt give up some clues pre nfp release.
In nfp the chart to watch often is the usdx (obviously since the numbers are US), many of the guys on our thread were calling itâs high for the nfp, the clues were there.
Piptronix (I think) showed on another thread today a brilliant analysis of fibre pa pre nfp and how this action would lead you to a good nfp trade.
Great thread Nikita, I really enjoy.