Mr Teb, just refer these poor souls to the proper PRICE ACTION thread!
Hello all,
I am busy at the moment. I am a busy person and I will reply when I can. I am sure you understand my members must come first before I update here.
I will reply soon when I can and help out soon
Regards,
Johnathon
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And please remind these āpoor soulsā to bring along their wallets too.
Think of this thread as a step up from the āproperā price action thread. I think it is pretty clear. Yea maybe it requires some research into terms like correlation, bias and waves and the like but it makes sense with some workā¦
Jonathon obviously came here in the hopes that he will get more members on his site and [B]I donāt have a problem with that[/B], but if you think that he is going to tell you everything he knows about trading without joining his site then I would think again (Iām not a member of his site btw this is just an assumption). What he does teach is true price action which is pretty much just predicting movement based on history (Support/Resistance). This thread expands on that.
Thanks for the reply ST, and Thanks to Teb as well.
I guess its time to clear my charts and focus on strong levels of S&R for now. I hope I do get better afterwards!
LMAO I almost fell out my chair.
Almost ready to record a live trade. Think I got software downloaded we will see but my dog ate my head phones or the mic part. Might try anyway since the lap top can hear me lol. Just not sure if it will record my face no need scareing away the followers to this thread lol. We will se what LO brings here soon. Yeah thats right I changed up my sleeping schedule to be here for LO
Why canāt both threads coexist? Why must one be considered the āproperā thread? I read Jonathonās thread, it is good stuff but pretty basic level. Itās a good introduction to PA thread, I like it. This thread is another good PA thread, takes the concepts a little further and caters more for the subtleties of interpretation and discretionary PA trading, the stuff one gets to after the straightforward stuff in Jonathonās thread. Thereās a valid place for both.
What I do not think that there is a place for is coming in here and knocking, and further knocking this thread in Jonathonās thread, which I saw you also did. You served only to distract both threads from their intended purpose, and show up a few shortcomings of your own, rather than any present in either thread.
This site is a learning environment, many people appreciate Nikitaās thread and learn from it, if you are not one of them why feel the need to make a point of that? Itās like the radio, there are many other options if you donāt like this channel.
ST
I have to thank Ang101 to begin with. I never bother browsing the other sections of babypips. The only other price action thread that I came across on babypips was Electro FX but unfortunately that thread stopped getting updates. So I dont think I would have found Jonathans if I had not gone on looking at what Ang101 meant by the āProperā price action thread.
With that being said, I went through Jonathans thread in about 15 minutes flat. Its a good thread and praise to Jonathan for doing a good job in sticking to the topic of PA.
The other thing that I realised that the underlying PA trading put forth by Jonathan is the same as what I use and what I have posted here. Its similiar to how Nial Fuller trades. That is another guy I found out after someone pointed him out to me here in this thread.
The point I was thinking about is that it would be plainly obvious to anyone who has either followed this thread or Jonathans that our entry methods are the same. Right down to concepts like Support broken and retested becomes Resistance, BPC and selling high and buying low, and what does selling high and buying low means on a chart etc etc. Its nearly 90% or so the same.
The only difference is what do we, as individuals, use with PA to maximize the number of winning trades we have and MM. Every PA traders trade the same way. Only difference is what is the extra that they use to increase their profitable trade ration.
I dont know whats Jonathans unique way because I just took a 15 minute glance through his thread. Mine is correlation, and D TF Bias.
I figured all this out in less than fifteen minutes because I know whats in my thread. The same can be said to anyone who has been really following my thread or that of Jonathans. The underlying similarity of PA trading used by both of us would be glaringly obvious.
Only a person who has not bothered understanding the concept of PA advocated in any one of these two threads and/or following and understanding one thread but not even glancing through what the other thread is about, would be able to make such a daft comment such as Ang101ās.
Thread authors and friends who participate can know just by reading a question asked by a new participant on whether the person posting the question has bothered reading the thread or he/she is taking the easy way out by shooting questions that has been answered many times before.
Or in extreme cases, like our new friend Ang101 here, making comments that clearly shows he hasnt got a first clue on what are the similarities or differences between these two threads.
Either way, no loss on my account.
And keep up the good work Jonathan. In regards to you charging for your tutelage at your own forum, I think should also start something like that. Be more proactive in advocating basic PA methods for free and charge those who want to learn the nuances that make the difference.
After all, I think its an honest and ethical way to make a few extra bucks. Not promising a system that gives 1000000000% return in 100 trades or something and charge an one off fee that costs an arm and a leg for it. And which does not work.
Good luck and keep up the good job.
Hi Nikita, ST, Teb, Bob and all other veterans out there,
I have taken my time to quantify my problems a little. I hope you guys can give me some insight to this and not get turned off by the chunk of text and stuff that Iāll be posting and some previous unintelligent posts that I might have posted. I truly wish to learn how to trade. Please do point out if I do not make any sense as well, Iām pretty much jumbled on all the things here.
I shall illustrate my query with the EU Charts.
This is the EU D TF. Yesterday is showing a downwards bar and according to Nikiās sayings in the beginning of the thread, If yesterday is a downwards bias, today is a downwards bias. Going by that direction, I should look at shorting the EU today. However, if I were to look at waves, should I go long instead around the 1.325 level?
I canāt read this bias when upwards and downwards bar keeps repeating themselves, or when price seems to move to a new high and is on a pullback. Leaving this aside for now, Iāll focus on the main question.
This is the EU 4H Chart. As I can see, price had been making very nice upwards waves and had probably stalled on the final HH with the two similar peaks. Price then went lower. I have indicated on the chart an area where I am unsure whether I should quantify it as a LH. Can I have some advice on this?
If it was a LH, then this would have been a pullback and I should look to short EU. However, if this is not considered a LH, should I consider the LL wave on 4H valid and decide to long instead? There may be a small resistance line around the 1.335 level and this small little pullback would have been valid and a reason to short.
While writing this, I felt that the middle resistance line might have been better placed if it were at around 1.3277 instead. If I have shifted this resistance line, then this would have fell into a perfect PBC on a valid resistance and I should look to LONG it.
The final attached image is the 1H TF chart. In this chart, I have quantified the āunknown LHā on the 4H a a valid LH. As price is on the drop and going in the LH, LL, LH, LL pattern, it seems to me that this is set for a further drop and i should SHORT the pair.
So my question is, how do we reconcile these varying wave patterns on different time frames? I am sorry if I am not making sense.
While typing this whole reply, I came to my own conclusion and I would like advice on this.
- DTF was downwards, so it should have been valid to Short the āunclearā LH pullback on 4H TF.
- Resistance line was strong at 1.3277 and should overpower the small little resistance above it. Hence I could have entered Long at the resistance.
- Even though DTF Bias was downwards, it was hitting a very valid resistance and I should discount the bias
1H TF and 4H TF were showing very different signals to Long and Short based on waves, and I am still not sure of how to counter these differences.
Thanks in advance.
OK this is my take on EU for the moment.
EU Weekly TF
The four lines are the rough S & R areas that I have marked on Weekly TF.
Now if we look at what the price is doing, we notice that it has pierced the two bottom lines which were a resistance area with last weeks bar. Last weeks bar ended as a solid bull candle. I am banking that the bearish candle that we are seeing for this week is the pullback for a BPC formation. Which means we should ideally be looking for a buy on the Weekly TF.
But the problem here is, other than what looks like a breakout upwards and a retest currently taking place, there are no other signals on this TF to signify that we should be taking a long position. There are no candle patterns etc etc.
EU D TF
Now going into the D TF, we see the three red lines that shows S&R areas that were picked on the Weekly TF. The forth line is above the screen shot. Again, the same. It looks like price has broken the resistance area and is now resting on the same area that is acting as support. This is where we would ideally look for a long entry.
The screen shot below is EU D TF, but slightly zoomed out, so that we can see the S&R level that its currently pulled back to.
So, we are seeing prices resting on a significant S & R area and it has pulled back to that area after breaking out from below.
This is a classic BPC scenario for a buy. But than, we do not have a confirmation candle or a candlestick formation signifying price reversal, on either the Weekly or D TF chart to actually give us the second confirmation that, yes we can buy as price has stalled on its downward cycle and is going to shoot up.
Since there is no second level confirmation, for all we know, price might continue to go in the same direction of yesterdays bias, which was a strong bear candle.
This is where we need to go down to H4 or H1 to see if we can find a candle stick formation that tells us that price is definitely taking of in the northern direction.
I have entered a buy with a SL in place as this is a trade that has some potential but it does not satisfy all the our entry requirements.
When we have such a scenario, there are two things that we can do. Decide to take a non ideal trade such as this or stay out of the market. If we decide to take a trade that does not satisfy all that we are looking for, than we should reduce our risk size significantly. Never trade signals that you are not sure of.
Usually, if I decide to go with the flow and take such a trade, I will only risk about 50% or less of what I would normally risk on a trade that shows clear signs of direction. This is where your money management and risk management comes into play. Do not spend your valuable cash or SL purse on trades that are not clear.
I took this trade 2 odd hours ago with a SL of 10 pips. If it gives, it gives. If it does not, I will wait for the UK session and see if I can find any other clearer signs showing us a PA set up on smaller TF.
DO NOT GUESS.
If you cannot see where its going, wait. The best place to be most of the time is out of the market.
I hope this helps.
Thanks Nikita, this has certainly given me a lot more insight. Thank you for having the patience with me.
If I may add my thoughts on this and paint up your charts a little. First off cudos on how you frew your waves you seem to be getting an understanding on waves. I look at waves a little different but you are not wrong either. Secondly you have to understand the point of why Nikita said if yesterday was a buy today is a buy. Look at that up trend on your daily chart. There are alot more green candles than red. So using that concept you would have been right more times than wrong. Does that mean you would have been right every time? Of course not, thats why with sound MM you can almost follow that blindly and be profitable. Strong emphasis on almost lol. Now to increase probability lets look at BPC. I will toss up your daily chart
You can see the red line I added. This shows price broke out and pulled back to the last high. Over all momentum is to the north. I would not be looking to go short right now even though yesterday was a sell. Again look at the up trend there are a lot of buy days where price is still advancing. These are the days to use buy if yesterday was a buy. Once price move into an area of resistance. I would do nothing sit on my hands and wait. This chart shows really well everytime price got to these areas it did react to it. IF you would have kept buying because yesterday was a buy you would have lost. Im fact these are pretty much the only times you would have lost.
Lets move on to the 4hr
On this I marked another BPC setup.This again is saying buy me. Also if you look at the candle we are on now in the circle looks like it might just form a hammer. However I forgot to mark that dip just to the north with the hammer. That would concern me with any entry. I am not saying I would not enter I cant see the chart good enough to see how many pips away that area of resistance is. If it was lets say over 50 pips away. I would wait to see if that hammer does indeed form and then wait for pice to retrace to the 50% level of the hammers wick and drop down to the 1hr for entry confermation. This would give you a small SL and decent RR if price did react to that resistance level. I would keep risk low since price did take out the previous low (possible broken uptrend) but enough I could take off some at the resistance area and move SL to BE in case it breaks that level.
Now down to the one hour
Another BPC pattern only this time signaling to go south. Also that consolidation bugs me. So I would do nothing at this time and wait to see if that hammer forms on the 4hr before proceeding. With that swing taken out so violently and that range expansion almost leaves me to believe there was some stop hunting going on and price should continue with higher timeframe momentum. However with that resistance sitting I would still be looking long with higher timeframe but I would not leave much to risk on any entry I decided to take.
Now thats what I see in these charts. Not saying you should do what I do. I will say when Nikita says if yester day was a buy today is a buy she is spot on as was explained already in this post. Always keep in mind there are more than just 1 candle on the daily timeframe and you must take them into consideration to up probability. Although as you could clearly see on you chart that concept will work most of the time for bias. Then if you learn to watch the candle on the daily to it will help. What I mean by that is if yesterday was an up candle and your looking to buy, if the daily candle is bigger or of equal size to most of the candles around it then it has probably already hit the high for the day and you should sit out. You dont want to buy at the high of the day it never ends well. This will also up you probability
Thanks Bob for the further explanation.
I seem to understand what you guys are saying when I read through the forum. However, when I turn back to look at my charts, Im seeing it all fuzzy again and its giving me a splitting headache.
Iāll have to practice more and more to get this thing going my way.
I hear you there. Takes time but you will figure it out if you keep trying. I will show you a live trade I have going right now as we speak and why I took it.
This is the daily chart of AUD/USD. Sorry for that stupid triangle I have yet to figure out how to get rid of it when I am in a trade.
As you can see yesterday was a buy day but if you look at the chart you can see price went up bounced and retested the red line. When price retested the area it made that long wick on that candle next to my stupid triangle. Telling me price ran out of steam and can break this level. Now I would not enter at the close of that candle because that is over a hundred pip SL. So I waited to get in at a better price. That and I just love to wait for the 50% retracement of the candles wick. So when price got there today thats my cue to look for an entry. At most at this level I will have a 40-50 pip SL witch is more manageable for my account. So I dropped down to a 4hr but really didnt see much so I went to the 1hr.
On the 1hr I see price has hit an area of S/R and formed a doji. I didnt mark it on here due to the green line(my entry ) was pretty much spot on. Although it was not there obviously before I took the trade. I dont mark to many levels of S/R on my charts it tends to cluter it up and I can see it so whats the point of uneeded clutter. I still did not enter due hat the hammer that came after the doji. Instead I decided to see what price wanted to do. However since price decided to retest the high of that doji then closing below the hammer and rejecting off the S/R level this is a good place to put a stop loss. Now stop loss is about 15 pips. But I still didnt like this for an entry so down to the 15 min chart I go.
Kinda hard to see with that stupid triangle but on the 15 minute I see all those wicks on that high. So I tried to get in at the 50% mark of that last wick (not counting the last one since thats when I got in) Almost got it but with spred and being a little slow on the mouse I missed it by a few pips. My original SL I never set but was about 15 pips higher at 1.0825 entry (short by the way) at 1.0811 after spread. Real entry was 1.0813. Those red areas marked are possible areas of S/R and also my TP points. The first was already hit when I took this and I set a SL at BE. Now that all risk is off the table and I have locked some profits I have decided to stay up for LO to see if I can get an entry on the cable or fiber. I also set a limit order at my final TP zone in case I go to bed. Bed is highly probable since I have to go to work in a few hours (thank god I got a good long nap in today since my 3 yr old is at grandpas house lol).
I was going to record it live but I have ben downloading the materal from ICT thread and this file has taken 2 days to download now and currently at 89% complete. So Hopefully next week
Thanks bob. Iāll try to get digest all the information as best as I can.
Its comforting to know I saw the same trade on hindsight (I was a few hours late cause I was sleeping). But hey! It was quite a decent learning opportunity. I shall go back to digesting the information.
Hi everyone.
This is quite a big thread but Iāve got a fair way through it and Iām going to start to build up with it.
I just need a little yes thats right or no thats wrong as I build my learning up.
So today, fri 2nd march, I look at AU, EU, GU and UsdChf (UC) and see daily candles for [U]previous[/U] day saying
AU - Up so buying AU
EU - Down - so would be selling EU
GU - Up so would be buying GU
UC - Up as well so would be buying UC
But overall bias is mixed, $ is down against AU and GU but strong against the other 2 so all I have so far is direction to trade each pair.
I go down to H4
GU shows a channel forming and theres a support line (more of a zone) around 1.59.
Its a buy so will be watching this on 1 hr now.
the 1hr chart attached.
I did not go any further as I thought this is looking quite nice.
But is it ? I made a buy at 1.5908
Thank you
well that was a total disaster
I initially wanted to buy GU and sell EU. But stayed out of the GU since EU was that strong in the past days and didnt want to trade both against each other. Made 48 pips per trade, plus two trades still in the game with +37.
@pgtips: Itās really bad to see your trade going wrong, though the idea seemed to be good. As I said, I was also thinking about buying GU. Hope u can handle the lost pips with some green days next week.
Would you be kind enough to post your charts up so I can take a look, I must be honest my first attempt using this method has not worked well, maybe bad luck, maybe I could see your chart to see how you made good profit.
I did not see a logical entry on EU today.
Pgtips I must ask why did you enter long there besides just an area of support you had nothing else. There are no candle formations to suggest price might be turning north. If fact on the second chart you posted that candle states quite the opposite. Another thig to add that might of helped you out here. Guessing by the fist chart I see your entry so I will assume you SL would be below the white line or support area. Judgeing by the second chart price did bounce there. I cant really tell how many pips the numbers are to small on your chart but you could have moved stop to break even. This would have avoided a loss. By moving stops to break even as soon as we can (still give the trade room to breathe) you take risk off the table. Then even if you were wrong (witch in this case you were) it will not cost you. Remember price action trading is more than just support and resistance. You must use other things to confirm such as candle formations. Other than that you were right on bias and all. With a candle formation to confirm price was changing direction I feel would have made a difference but even if it would not have mattered you are not going to win every trade. Price will defy S/R levels from time to time this is where Risk management comes in. All in all I think you are well on your way sorry your trade didnt work. Keep at it. This strategy can be very powerful once you understand the concepts. Take you time and read the thread there is alot of really good info here.