I am planning to go for a long in AU round about 1.0400-1.03800 after observing a bullish engulfing pin bar right after an inside bar in weekly TF. Also observed a HH (I am in doubt) and HL pattern in this TF. Putting my SL at 1.02340 and TP at 1.07450 I am having a RP ratio about 1:2. Please advice and rectify my mistakes. I am also having a question for Nikita and BOB, is it required to go for some fundamental analysis if we are working in larger TF. If yes then what we should study?
To rich for my blood as far as risk. If it were me personally I would drop to a lower time frame once you in you entry zone to find a better entry with a smaller Stop loss. Also for trading the weekly I would now say to pay close attention to some fundamentals such as US interest rates and COT data. With COT data be careful where you get it from. I get it straight from the CFTC web site. I used to keep a chart on excel but have been slacking on keeping it updated lately. But if you go online to get the charts I will caution you on where you get it. Reason is most sites I have seen show COT charts on daily time frames. Well if the COT report is released weekly then how do you get daily charts? Simple answer is you cant. Now unless they know something I dont know which I highly doubt (I have done a lot alot alot of research on COT reports) then if they offer charts with anything less than a weekly I have to question there credibility.
As far as your analysis looks good. Inside bar on a support level. Plus a institutional level (1.0400). I dont trade inside bars myself but they do hold credibility in my book. Correlation looks good. NU seems to have gone flat on the weekly (line chart) but has made a higher high for what it is worth. AU has not made a higher high but is heading up so seeing as how it has not gone flat it could be pressing north. USDX made a lower low signaling both AU an NU to go north. Now I will watch it and try to get that stop lower due to the fact the Aussie made one hell of a rally last week I would see a correction comming but that dont mean it will happen. Also I hope it works out for you as where you are looking to TP I am looking at that level to go short.
Other news to watch would be QE3 if you trading the weekly but honestly your not trading the weekly IMO your trading the daily and 4HR eyeing a setup on the weekly. Or if you are only watching the weekly then its just a scalp of the weekly. Now dont take my opinion as advise. I very very rarely ever go long on any market because it just dont work for me. I only really go short. I guess because I have a negative outlook on the world so I only see things going down lol.
TP would be either 1.06300 or there abouts, or safer still at 1.0525.
Personally at the moment I think it will bounce at 1.0525 first before doing anything further.
While your ambition to trade weekly is commendable, entering now with a SL of 150 over pips is not wise.
Your swing should have ideally been the beginning of 4 trading days ago, the pullback candle with a SL of 80 pips.
Attempting to buy now on Weekly time frame is a classic beginners mistake I think. Buying high. Buying retail.
Furthermore, Monthly price is at a strong resistance.
unless I see very compelling reasons to buy, I would wait this one out.
Thought there was no trades for me today, as it is monday adn moreover prices were rallying on friday…
Somehow, took a chance to glance at GU and spotted a trade which netted me 48 pips…:53:
Though this is not exactly niki’s trading method, but its purely based on PA (as far as i know).
Trade - Short
Entry - 1.6280
Exit - 1.6232
SL - 1.6300
Reasons for Short -
Doji on h4 at the resistance level 1.6300. Entry at the white arrow mark in H1 after it has formed pin bar. Exited at the cross sign mark.
EU was hovering around the monthly pivot and same with AU and GU has reached a key resistance level after a strong rally past week. so did not take a chance of going long in either of the pairs.
Let me know, how this trade could have been done better or if I’ve had done any mistakes on choosing this kind of entry…
Thnq.
What I think does not matter 48 pips in the bank is what matters lol. Good job
Thanks Bob
How is everything with you ?
doing pretty good considering events that have gone on lately. How are things out your way
Thanks Bob. There are so many things to be considered. That is why you can’t trade everyday and have to wait for a right setup. Thanks a lot.
Thanks Nikita. Yes, SL is quite high. I followed you and find it worth waiting till the end of the swing.
Does weekly TF give the idea about the trend and traders should be more focused on daily bias?
Recently I had few trades with daily TF in EU and AU, and found the SL of 40 to 50 pips are not working. The bias identification was right. Is it OK to take a trade in daily TF in between 60- 40% of last candle and put a SL according to R/S on Hourly TF?
Once again thanks for your reply. They are priceless.
Yes, I do look at weekly, especially at the beginning of the week, as the price bias applies to weekly also. Last week was a bear candle, than most probably this week will be a bear also, provided we are not looking at any significant S & R area.
If you watch AU now, you can see what I mean by price bias on Weekly candle.
Now our job is to just find an entry on H1 H4 min 30 or even Min 5 with a good signal and a valid SL.
Hi there,
its been a long time since I last replied to this forum and I’ve been losing for two weeks straight after my two weeks break. Can someone give me some advice on the AU trade I am currently looking out for?
This is a AU 1H chart.
Bias last week was generally up and I was previously looking out for a Long at 1.039 until price pierced through with a gap. Yesterday was a bearish candle and price bias was down for today and has slowed down at 1.0305. Price has similarly stalled on NU as well, at 0.8125, which i marked out as a support area.
Its currently the first hour after the 4H candle and I see somewhat of a morning star pattern forming on both AU and NU.
Will I be correct in going for a Long on AU, at 1.0327, SL 1.0302 and TP - half at 1.039 and another half at 1.0448.
I have just made the entry, but was not able to get into the trade yet.
NU with 15 pips SL.
I reduced risk to bare minimum, reason being I am not happy with what I see in GU and EU in the correlation of things.
So reduced risk and took it, regardless.
NZ H4
Missed the short entry today. Thought i will go with the retracement which is actually against the bias. Other mistake i did was to enter before actually the confirmation candle is formed on the H1…
Jumped in Long at 1.3154 and got stopped out at 1.3134.
Loss - 20 pips.
Only time we lose with this kind of trading is when we are trading against the bias or entering very lately or very early ( before the confirmation candle is formed).
looks ok I took that long on AU so far has not dont much but did go up some. I also see Nikita to a long on NU. I got in with a 15 pip stop loss guess we will see.
Hi there! I am new to this thread, which I found very interesting. I only trade price action. Usually looking to trade into the obvious trend, entering on engulfing bars (or pin bars) at the end (hopefully) of a retracement.
I have only read first 10 pages or so but what I understand this thread is not a stategy with strict rules for entries and extis, but rather a guidance. However, one of the clear “rules” that I actually find on the first page is to use the Daily TF for bias = if previous day is a bear candle then we are looking to short, and the opposite for bull.
Then I don’t understand, when looking at 1st May’s candle (which was the previous day from your trades above) on both NU, AU, GU and EU they all have a bear candle (except EU which has two DOJI, from previous bull candles, looking to reverse (which it actually did). Then everything is looking that 2nd May should be a bear candle as well on Daily TF. And according to the “rules” the bias should be short, looking to find short entries on the 1H. However, all of your trades above is long trades… What am I missing?
I am really sorry if I miss something obvious. Your replies is very appreceited.
Thanks in advance!
hahaha looks can be deceiving those posts were made yesterday on May 1. My long didnt go so well as you can see from the daily candle. Since my risk was small I was able to get out with only a couple pips to show for it. Today however bias was down so I look to short and here is another entry I took on the AU and a couple reasons for taking this trade.
Here is my entry on a 1H chart
Price hitting support at about 1.0350 on what looks to be a left shoulder of a head an shoulders pattern. Now we formed the head and now the right shoulder is forming. If you use fibs at all draw a fib from the down swing just before the retrace up to my entry and you will find 61.8 % fib. Or if you follow ICT at all there is OTE (optimal trade entry). Then price formed a pin bar and on the next candle price hit the 50% mark of the pin bars wick. Thats when I entered. 9 pip stop loss. The entry turned into a pin bar as well but I was already in. Now for the second reason for entry
This is a 1HR line chart of the AU (RED) NU (BLUE) and USDX (GREEN).
You see in this chart AU made a higher high while NU failed to make a higher high. Now which one is going to be the correct one to follow? Up or Down? Well if you look at USDX it failed to make a higher high telingl me we are not done going down. also I dont have a 4 hr chart but there appears to be a bear flag setting up.
So there you have it. Hope this clears it up a little. As far as yesterday friday was an up day so longs were to be hunted. Thus all the long entries.
Oh and before someone calls me on the fact that my USDX line chart is upside down (wander if anyone caught that). Thats an indicator I am using on mt4 that can flip USDX. Other wise when AU goes up USDX should go down. With it flipped it makes it easier on the eyes.
Thats different Bob, what ever works for ya,
Price action reigns king in Forex, and Im surprised there isnt 1 inperticular word im looking for in this thread…
um
Hehehe.
Well its obvious that we broke the rules.
Despite my best effort, I still do this sort of things now and than.
Just an addiction to pull the next 30 or 40 pips from a signal.
If you had noticed, I mentioned that I am reducing risk to a bare minimum and took the trade for 15 pips SL.
I moved it to BE after it crossed 20. It hit my BE.
If I was able to follow my rules strictly, my account balance would be much more healthier than what it is today.
Sometimes I go through reading this thread myself, just as a refresher to remind me what I sometimes obviously err on.
It has yet to become second nature to me.
Then by all means contribute that word lol. No What did I just show here is different thats not on this thread somewhere. What trading pin bars at S/R levels in accordance with daily bias. Or was it the line chart thats different. Well we have talked a lot here about correlation just this time I showed how I use it. Now if you were talking about the fibs that were different yeah you got me. But that was a major point to taking this trade so I had to mention it. Not trying to bust your balls here (well not to hard) but I have seen your trading results and man your style of trading is different. Works very well but different. So if you are looking for a word on here please school me. A man that walks here with your profits by all means take this I am all ears. Interested to see this word as I am always looking for that next piece that I may be missing. reguardless if it works for me or not never hurts to know.
How ever I open 3 lots at a 9 pip stop. 2/3 profit targets hit last one left to run here is a 15 min chart of the same trade. I will post this since it has been asked about how to trail a stop well I am not going to say the way I do it is the way to go but it is how I do it.
Ok first profit target is to make at least a 1:1 trade. So Since stop was 9 pips and I entered 3 lots (9X3=27 pips) Thats target 1 and then move stop to BE. Target 2 is the bottom of the upward swing (or first true support level). In this chart you will see I cut target 2 short a little but look at the charts the same reasons I got short are setting up to go long (besides the head and shoulder patter but I dont trade them. When they are in my favor great but I dont look to trade that. Not traget 2 is cashed move stop to the high of the last retrace which in this case looked good on a 15 min so thats why we are on a 15 min here. Now I will continue to move stop down the same untill stopped out. As of right now I am sitting at a 4:1 trade. Not my best but good enough to be a winner no matter what happens from here…
Damn I’m always breaking the rules subconsciously.
Heres one that I think fits the rules nicely,
EU 4H
All 4 pairs are moving downwards - Correlation checked.
Since bearish sentiment, only look for shorts - checked.
I entered this EU trade a little late though, entry was based on the 4H hammer that was formed. unfortunately, I was asleep at that time and price has moved a little away when i saw the chart. I think the entry is still valid though, hence I entered.
Supposed stop loss for this is about 17 pips, ideal entry at 1.3151, stop loss at 1.3168. Late entry caused the SL to enlarge to 25 pips, which is still acceptable for me.
All 4 pairs are moving downwards - Correlation checked.
Since bearish sentiment, only look for shorts - checked.
Comments appreciated. Thanks!