not only that,but on the daily TF …both eu and GU were bullish; and on top of that with terrible US sales news …which should have sent them through the roof.
they both fell.
maybe some big players are setting the scene for a big price push later in the day.
i really think there are people out there that have this ability, to move the market substantially wherever they want.
I didnt take GU cause it was very close to previous pullbacks and the D TF was messy.
I took EU. It went up about 50 plus pips from where I entered and I only managed to bank in 30 after it started crashing upon US open.
Its just one of those things.
Sometimes we take whats on the table too soon and it keeps going in our direction that we hit our heads for being so daft. Than on the next trade we let our profits run, only to have it hit BE or even our SL.
The closer it is to resistance or support, the better to take whats on the table.
As a footnote, I am now learning not to chase entries.
For an example, AJ touched the cross of two trendlines but I didnt short it yet because yesterday was a bull candle. I didnt get an entry with a smaller SL so I decided not to take that trade.
I am planning to only take the trades that I am very sure of and see what it does for my trading.
Not taking trades daily has helped me alot. Now I need to learn how to wait for the best entry.
I have long learned the best way to make money is to stay out of the market most of the time.
How To Trade the U.S. Retail Sales Report | Forex Blog: Piponomics
Look at the above article from babypips regarding US retail data report history and how it affects the price.
LOL, I should have moved this to BE and held I guess! Well 30 is 30.
here we go…trade plan for today
plan is to go short on the GU
had a look at price action got some S & R lines from my weekly and daily TF
notice there is also a flag like shape forming around current price activity …also acting as SR.
daily is heavily bearish
H4 has a hammer with a short wick…but i still class as hammer …so that too is bearish.
H1 is closing in on support lines and last candle was bullish …but i expect that to change.
as can be seen on diagram
if candle turns to bear. and breaks through red support line …then i will wait for a retest and short immediately.
my problem is …my plan is great if it retests…i take the short
its great if it retraces back…i dont take the short .
but if it blasts through and goes short then …i dont really know what to do…it just means it did what i expected it to do …but with greater momentum than anticipated…and i lose the deal…or wait …dont know.
anyway on taking the deal …stop loss will be 7 to 10 pips above my red breakout line.
profit will be a few pips short of previous wave…
measured using the fib.
there is not really any more support for a while apart from fib lines…so i will take 60 percent off at 100 percent fib line
the 100 percent fib is 50 pips from anticipated entry.
the other likely place it will find support is on the previous wave to that which is about 80 pips away from entry.where i will take the remaining 40 percent.
if it goes my way i put 1.5 percent on it.
here is where i got some of my lines.
here is the deal on the 1 hour chart…
not sure the deal is on …the price may start chopping between the flag like formation or even break on the upside…
but if it goes my way…i feel happy to take it…
mind is clear about what i think it will do…plus there is going to be a tight stop loss so its all good.
hope i read your strategy correctly …please feel free to comment on anything.
right got out on the first pass with plus 35 pips…
i decided to jump on the momentum before london open.
i feel it may retrace and not pass through my trendline…from where…if all still looks good i will hit it again.
note pink line is my maximum profit take…hopefully later on in the day…on trade 2…as trade 1 is now closed with 35 pips
Didn’t take 20 pip profit while I had it in the GU.
Now, all the weekly profits gone while trying to short GU.
Back to recovering losses now.
This was my first time trading this pair.
GU might go south during the US session in a moment.
I think your entry was too late. You missed the boat at the top but you still decided to go in.
Read the earlier part of this thread. I keep telling traders not to take a trade late. If you missed it, wait for the next.
Reason is your SL will become too big and your returns too small.
If it goes in your favour you dont make much.
IF it goes against you, you loose too much.
This is what has happened in your case I guess.
Very nice to see a chart attached with a traders thought process.
Gives us the readers a peak into what you are thinking before taking a trade, the reasons for you to go short etc etc.
Thank you for sharing.
I woke up at 3 am saw GU dropping so entered short after a pullback to the round number of 1.5500
Should have taken 20 pips as I planned when placing the trade.
Later read something as to where it can drop to and got greedy. lol
yes it was a trade that needed closely monitoring amanfx.
main reason being that early on correlation between TF was OK.
but correlation between pairs was not HOT…i should have mentioned that.
it was also a fast mover on the break of the trendline. hard to get in at a good price.
the big question was…is it over the trendline for keeps or is it going to retrace with a long wick.
plus on top of that there was quite a bit of RED FACTORY…NEWS TODAY…that the market probably factored in…hopefully the effects of that are just winding down RIGHT NOW.
so maybe it is not a good trade…
i got 35 pips and then cut and ran on this one.
im no expert, and i did a lot of things wrong this trade.
i didnt even understand when to pull the trigger…because i read nikita thread all yesterday. and didnt know if to pull the trigger on the 5 minute time frame or what. ?
i still dont really know.
so aman. im glad you jumped on the trade and had a potential 20 pips.
but if i say anything to do with trades…take it with a very large pinch of salt.
as im a proper noob at this. and my analysis is normally WAY OFF.
i wish i could give you my 35 pips to make up to you.
i hope you practiced proper money management anyway. so the sting is small potatoes.
Yes Brinkfx.
No worries with the losses.
That is one thing(and I believe a BIG one) that I have learned to accept the losses.
I don’t react the same way to losses as I use to when I first started forex.
This week has been a great learning experience for me.
This week so far was a week for the big boys, not for us like new trader. I was waiting for a setup where I can be happy to open a position but no setup has been captured by my eyes.
So no trade no loss that is also profit for me.
Is there a way to tell which pair is going to have more momentum? (like close by S&R maybe)
I bought AU instead of GU today.
GU gave 50 pips in less then 15 minutes.
Is there anything to consider when choosing one pair over another in terms of what can give you profits sooner?
Hi Amanfx I believe both pair should give reasonable amount of pips in terms of profit, but it depends when you trade on which pair. Suppose if you trade GU during the European session that more likely you will get more pips in relation to AU. But it also depends on the price of the pair.
Suppose if any pair is going long and the pair is almost on the significant major support line then you can imagine that pair will give you more pops then any other pair.
AU just hit my SL at BE. Came back from 20 pips profit.
While GU hit 65 pips in the same time period.
For some reason I entered AU over GU and now no profits.
Today was the perfect setup for go long on GU.
My trade on GU today
went to the market almost right time but unfortunately got less pips than my initial TP due to the trailing stop.
can you please explain your thinking about going long…sharebazar as i was curious…because today i got mixed signals from the GU
on the weekly i had a bullish inside bar
on the daily it was bullish…but seemed to be stuck in a range on previous candles high and lows…i put down that although bullish previous candle …too risky as could be range bound.
and the thing that made me keep out of it…was on the h4 there was a BEARISH INSIDE BAR SET UP.
so i gave the gu a miss.
cheers…