I agree. But need to wait to enter in JPY pairs IMO. Let’s see how the pair move next week. Do you have any strategy to enter in these pairs?
I believe that UJ is going all the way up to 94.97, it where a major key level is. I use a 10ema plus 20, 50 , 200 smas, I don’t use these as indicators though or to create any kind of entry signal for that matter, as I stated before I use these as dynamic S/R, now on the UJ if you just add the 10EMA you will see how well this ema has been acting as support for the last 30 days, I already had two sweet trades on this one, I’m not looking for a Candle formation I simply wait for price to retrace to the 10ema, make sure price closes above the 10ema though if closes below then it’s possible that price will go down to the 20ema, I simply enter the market, your stop loss should between 50-120 pips. This works very well on strong trends. It’s also very common to get pinbars on these MAs which further proves my point.
I don’t mean to go against you guy,but page one clearly states that we don’t use MA.Go back and read Saliv’s instruction.
Exactly, and that is why I don’t post entries or charts when my decisions are made with the help of an ema, now this is by no means my only way of making entry decisions but in strong trends it tends to be and because the GJ and UJ are in such strong uptrend and respecting the 10ema over and over again I use it to help me enter, I don’t think you’re going to get a candlestick reversal signal, or at least a strong one, very soon. salimvp asked me for a strategy, I gave him what I use which is the only one I use in strong trends like these or could of given him nothing because nobody on this thread uses emas. Sorry.
I’m in this thread because it is price action and I use price action but I also go to other threads on the same subject, I tend to stick to their rules but it doesn’t mean that I “ONLY” follow or agree to their way of thinking. If I believe that a tool will help me then I use it. Price action is not only candlestick formations, it is also how these candles react at certain key levels like S/R, FIBS, pivots and yes mas, out of these I tend to stick with S/R and MAs but that’s me, other might feel more comfortable with pivots or fibs, these are not indicators but tools.
I believe that i have respected the thread rules because so far I have not posted any charts with any of these.
Cheers,
Eddie
I understand man.
Uhmmmmmmmm, I think he met a good looking babe in his travels and forgot all about this thread!
Ha ha ha… Looolzzzzzzzzzzzzzz… 
I would like to correct this, Chris Capre does have his own thread where he shares some of his ideas which I was not aware of when I first made this reply. His thread is called “understanding price action with Chris Capre” Sorry I missed it when I wrote it.
Why is he fishing on this thread?What a hustler.
LOL, I don’t know! I had no idea he had his own thread I never even heard of him until he showed up of here.
Whenever he saw a post or a thread about price action he will comment there and post his thread link. But commenting and posting about pay sites in this thread is not a good idea. Any way never mind friends. I hope it never happen in the future.
How was your trades this week. Anyone catch any trades. From my weekly analysis all pairs went to the exact TP’s. But honestly, I didn’t get any trades from those pairs due to the consolidation and mixed bias.
No problem. There are many opportunities on the way.
Happy pipping.
Yes I did, I entered on the gj a few days ago luckily I moved my stop to break even after 50 pips but that tuesday candle put me out, no loss but still a failed trade. I achieved my target on the UJ though yesterday, I got in at 87.14 and got out at 89.00, I did think about my tp initially I wanted to go for the 94.97 level but I ended up deciding to go for the 89.00 since we might still get another retracement before it gets to 94.97, let’s hope so. I have a little long trade on the EU right now with 50 pip sl and shooting for 1.3480, entered on the breakout which is something that I don’t do very often but it’s little one not much risk we will see how it will do ( I’m always afraid of entering on breakouts, this is where I experienced most of my losses plus I like to get the best price and you won’t get it on breakouts so I prefer retracements).
Hello Ecerejo,
First off, why do you say you do not get the best price on breakouts? I have been trading breakouts for about 13 years, and if done well, you can easily get the best price as you are seeing the breakout ahead of time. They are not hard to read, just take some time and practice. Retracements though do not always give you the best price, and sometimes only go back close the breakout level, not the actual level itself. Sometimes they do, but often times they do not.
My guess is your experience trading breakouts wasn’t too hot, so they have been ‘labeled’ as inaccurate and not great setups. But IMO this is really just a matter of learning to read the clues, understanding what constitutes a good breakout from a price action perspective, and how to trade them.
Once you do this, I think you will find them quite effective and profitable.
Just my thoughts.
Kind Regards,
Chris
Hello Ecerejo (or do you prefer Ed?),
In terms of you doubting something, which part are you referring to;
-that I have quantitatively tested pin bars, inside bars, engulfing bars, etc. on multiple time frames?
-that some time frames the performance is actually better on the 4hr or 1hr than it is on the daily chart?
-that performance can also change based on server time?
-that sometimes the NY daily close works well with one pair, but badly underperforms with another pair?
Just checking to see which part you doubt so I can respond properly.
As to your third set of comments, you say you usually trade with 3, 4, 5, or even 6:1 ratios…could you show us some examples of these trades from your brokers charts?
As to doing this on the 15min chart, my students do it all the time. I’ve posted on my fb page some students doing 9:1, or even higher on lower time frames. Its actually not that hard on a time frame under the daily or 4hr and this happens all the time.
My guess is its just a matter of training and experience.
Anyways, perhaps you can show us some examples - I show mine all the time on my thread, so would be interested in seeing yours.
But looking forward to your response as to what part you doubted particularly so I can respond correctly.
Kind Regards,
Chris
Whats that?
You’re an experienced trader, you have your own thread, you have a facebook page and students and you teach people how to trade?..why didn’t you say something before?..oh wait…
Hello All,
Sorry for the delay in responding. I was in a 3 day meditation retreat this weekend, and then spent a few days after integrating things so was out for a few days. Am finally back at the office now so will respond to things in full.
As to Gabby’s points, there isn’t a contradiction here. What I said in the article merely states the 1hr, 4hr and daily time frames as ‘individual candles’ will have a greater communication about direction, clear S/R levels, key rejections, who’s in control, etc.
I stand by that completely since as ‘individual candles’ they contain more order flow over a greater period of time. Compare this to a ‘single’ 5m candle, and the information is far greater.
But this is where the mis-information or confusion about lower time frame trading comes from. When you are trading the 1hr or below, you are not just trading individual candles or a single pin bar. You are trading them in relationship to the recent price action, whether a move is impulsive or corrective, whether it is happening at a key S/R level. You will take into account whether it is a with trend signal or not, whether there is a confluence of signals or not, determining who’s in control or not.
And this is the point - this is exactly what you do on the daily charts or 4hr charts as well.
Do you really trade a pin bar in isolation? Probably not, and im guessing you are looking at whether it is with trend or counter trend, whether it is at a key level or not. There is no difference. You are almost never trading a pin bar or engulfing bar or inside bar in isolation. You are always trading it in conjunction with the price action around it and the levels it occurs at.
Looking at Salim’s UJ pin bar that he mentioned, my first question to Salim is a) did you trade that pin bar? if so, do you have a chart from your broker showing the trade? and b) notice how you are using several bars, key levels, trading with trend, etc. - Ironically, the exact same principles I use trading any time frame.
This is no different than on a 5m, 15m, 1hr, or 4hr chart. It is exactly the same. My article doesn’t contradict what I’m saying as the ideas and methods are the same. Sure, you have to tweak things a little differently when trading the 1hr charts or below, but you are still trading using the same principles.
I recently went archery shooting with a few friends of mine who all have quite a collection of bows. I have been shooting for about 3 years just on a recurve bow, and settled on one with 30lbs of pressure.
Now when I shot with a friends recurve bow that had 45lbs of pressure, or the compound bow of 75lbs, although I had to tweak things a little bit, 90+% of what I was doing was the same. Whether it had a sight or not, whether it had a clicker or not, whether it had a bar stabilizer or not…almost 90% of what I was doing was the same as on my bow.
This is exactly what its like in trading different time frames. 90% of what you are doing is the same - you just have to make a few tweaks.
There are no bugaboos or monsters waiting below the daily or 4hr charts. This is a myth, and any really good price action trader can trade any time frame or spot setups on any time frame. I’m guessing I could post many charts across all different time frames and show clean setups, but you wouldn’t know the difference if I obscured what time frame the chart was.
Time frames below 4hrs are not showing less information - just different and more nuanced. Its all information - just different. With time and training, you can learn to read any time frame chart - not just the 4hr or dailies.
And when trading below the 4hr charts, yes, its true, a directional move that can be sustained for 4hr as opposed to 5mins is a stronger move.
But guess what…when trading < 4hr charts, you are not trading any moves sustained for 5 mins. You are still trading impulsive moves, ideally more with trend then counter-trend, you are still trading where the larger players and more money is moving the price action. It is no different in principle - just like shooting a 30lb bow and then shifting to a 45lb bow. The technique all in all remains the same.
So there really is no contradiction here when you really tease things out and understand them fully.
Hopefully that clarifies things a little.
Kind Regards,
Chris
Hello Str8,
In regards to the kelly criterion, I do not find it appropriate for trading for a few reasons;
- trading accuracy tends to move on a somewhat sliding scale - meaning although a trader with 5,000 trades may have a baseline accuracy, they can have bad months where say normal accuracy of 65% slips to 45%. During this month of bad trading, the accuracy doesn’t just jump from 65% to 45%, so how would you apply the kelly criterion while your accuracy is in flux?
Would you do it by last weeks performance, last months, the last day? from my basic (and I mean basic) understanding of the KC, you would need to keep the win rate stable to really apply the calculation.
This would work far better in say poker or blackjack where the mathematical probabilities are limited and known ahead of time to a much greater measure than in currency trading.
-Secondly, I would not be risking more because I had a baseline win rate of 70% than say a baseline win rate of 60%.
Why? Because of point 1 listed above. What happens when your accuracy rate slides down during a bad month? How and when do you adjust it, and thus your risk level? You would almost have to be constantly adjusting risk levels as accuracy increases or decreases, so I think this does not work well.
I prefer to have a fixed risk % per trade. This allows me to control risk better, along with analyze what parts of my system and money management are working and what is not.
Hopefully that clarifies it, but I think all in all, the KC is not efficient for currency trading, but would be for playing blackjack or poker where the mathematical odds are more known.
Kind Regards,
Chris
I should have used the word “probability” instead of “win rate” (p is the chance to win, not the win rate).
Yes, the probability to win needs to be stable (even if the probability is stable the win rate will always vary due to variance). It doesn’t matter if the win rate in a month is 65% and in another month is 45% IF the probability to win stays the same.
You are right that this works better in games where the probability is known exactly. In currency trading the probabilities can be determined only intuitively and are not an exact science like casino games for example.
However usually those that want big payoffs (let’s say 6:1) will have a lower probability to win than those who want smaller payoffs (1:1 or 2:1). It’s simply easier to win 1:1 than 6:1. Those who want big payoffs with lower probability should risk a smaller % than those who prefer trades with higher probability but smaller payoffs. For instance if you use a risk of ruin calculator, a trader who has a probablity to win of 40% and has a payoff of 6:1 and risks 10%, has a high risk of ruin (7,43%). Now a trader who wins 70% of time and with a payoff of only 1:1 and risks 10% has a very small risk of ruin (only 0,02%). The trader who wants small payoffs can risk 10% but for the trader who wants big payoffs it is suicide to risk the same 10%. I can’t calculate the probabilities exactly but intuitively it seems that the trader that wants to win only 1:1 can take bigger risks.
I also don’t use the KC, it’s too aggressive for me. While the RoR is low, there are big chances you will lose a lot of your account if you use the KC.
hi Saliv
I also did not take any trade since there was no signal that kicked me on chin.As for this chris character,this person is on this thread to brag about his good life and chasing our hard earned money.
I’ll be honest in saying that I trade on a demo,and very lucky to have the patience that I have.This helps me to spot characters like this Chris.I don’t care about his experience and archery shooting since it wont take trades for anyone in this thread except for him.People like GabbyFX will always find the contrary in his money chasing articles and lyres do find themselves entangled in their poison.
Hello Zakuthimdlethe,
If you could, please point out where I was ‘bragging’ about my ‘good life’ as I am not seeing this in what I wrote.
As to my ‘money chasing articles’ - they are just information and you are welcome to take it as you please. My hope is that you benefit from the information. Whether you take any training from me is up to you - not me.
If you do - great, and I sincerely hope to be a part of your trading success and help you become a profitable trader.
If not, no worries and no sweat. I still hope to be a part of your trading success in some way or another. You are welcome to use the articles all you want without ever spending one penny on training with me. And if you use that to become a profitable trader - then I am happy regardless.
My job as a trader and fund manager is to profit for myself and my clients, finding opportunities in the market and applying my edge while limiting and neutralizing risk.
My job as a forex and trading mentor is to help others become profitable, and train them to the best of my abilities, knowledge and experience, along with provoking new ideas, discussions and different ways to see the market.
If I do this via my free articles - then that is a success. And if I do it through my training, then I also consider it a success. Again, if it interests you - fine. If not - no worries at all, and I hope you find all the training and information which helps you become a profitable trader.
I do like to engage in open minded discussions about price action and trading in general, as I’m always looking to challenge my ideas. And if you read my articles, but don’t like it, or it doesn’t make sense to you - that is fine.
Either way, my job as an educator and trading mentor is to help others become profitable, and that can be done through any vehicle one chooses.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre