AUDUSD M1 Long
M1
~35P Stop / ~54P Target
Roughly 1.6R trade - Bit of a late entry, thus the deeper stop + reduced R
M15
Horizontal support zone
Bottoming pattern (Low, Lower Low, Higher Low)
Break of neckline entry
Stop never threatened & moved to +breakeven once up 1R
Target was former support zone just below the 76 handle
Jake
GBPJPY Short - FXCM Mobile App After-Hours Trading
All charts are M30
White channel - Impulsive selling. Bears in controls sub 160.
Green channel - volatile correction. Market should impulsively sell-off roughly same amount.
After break of correction, sellers got heavy, but buyers prevented the deep impulse @ 154.50.
Look @ 154.50 on a monthly chart to understand why it is significant.
Gold bearish breakout structure (signal that a potential break was coming).
Picked up a late entry, but, still an entry nonetheless.
Look how many times bulls tried to take the pair higher, yet the 20EMA acted as dynamic resistance.
This is the sign that all systems are go for a breakout.
Here’s the final trade w/ replicated tech analysis on the desktop trading software.
Impulse, correction, bearish breakout pattern followed by my entry and covering.
Key characteristics of this trade.
The trade ended up technically being roughly 2R, due to late entry. But, the position was levered up outside normal parameters due to the signal quality, alongside across-the-board JPY-strength. The entire 2nd impulse was ~320P - this trade captured ~180P; or, ~60% of the move.
Late or not, what matters is that the trade was put on based on confidence in the analysis, and we’re not sitting here talking about the “trade that could have been”.
Jake
SP500 bears seriously threatening D1 20EMA for first time since mid-FEB.
Yes i noticed it aswell
Here’s the intraday breakout and retest of 16,000 we were looking for.
As mentioned above, 15 is on deck. Sellers need to test these recent lows @ 15,350, and it looks like that should happen no problem.
A bullish bias existed (BRIEFLY) just under 16,000 to close out the week (you can see the formation of a bullish breakout pattern), but, sellers were just too dedicated and you typically won’t see that type of meaningful breakout heading into a weekend.
Looking to gap down here.
What are your thoughts near-term on the index?
Updated FXCM USDOLLAR D1 Chart.
Focus on how sellers have been able to use the 20EMA as dynamic resistance. The risk is to the downside here.
GBPJPY @ 153.65 under pressure. Risk is to the downside here.
Updated USOIL H4 chart
Ascending channel.
Trading away from $42 range ceiling currently.
Minor support @ 50% of range that may line up w/ channel floor, deeper @ $35 range base.
Bulls looking to breach $42.
Bears looking to clear 3 support levels mentioned above.
Jake
EURUSD
D1 Chart
Longer-term, we’re trading off the lows of a large descending channel.
The second rally off the 1.05 zone has been more bullish than the first.
If buyers could attack the 1.14 level with conviction, we may see forced short-covering fueling a pop toward 1.20.
Not much has changed, still calling for shorting USD more-often-than-not.
Watch 94 on the DXY.
Jake
Updated UGLD D1
Original analysis posted APR 3. You can see the neckline held as projected, w/ a breakout of the key $11.60 price point. Looking for buyers to get heavy and keep the lows around $12. May see a bit of a pullback here, but anyone shorting gold (i.e. following Goldman Sachs’ advice) can easily get caught on the wrong side of history as this market is looking like it’s primed to move.
This is looking more and more like a move where the “professionals” are either heavily short and caught, or, are in disbelief of the move touting the need to “wait for a pullback”.
Updated USOIL H4
This is a tough one…let’s see if you can spot why (from a price action perspective)…
We saw $42 taken out, as mentioned would be needed, a few weeks ago. What makes analyzing the order flow as it stands, is that two perspectives can be seen as equally valid.
Bullish case- We saw a pullback to the lower channel bound, and subsequent rally above $42. Buyers have held the lows, and are becoming more aggressive as seen by the angle in which a new “inner” channel has carved out. Buyers are tapping @ the upper bounds and looking to breach for a new leg. The 20EMA has been violated, but the lows are holding.
Bearish case- After the pullback to the lower channel bound, price rallied above $42 but was unable to test the upper range of the larger purple channel formation. Sellers have been able to suppress higher prices and keep buyers @ bay.
Bottom line: Tighter range = more potential for explosive one-way moves.
How can this be traded?
Overall- I feel that the USD is in trouble across the board. Commodities are hot right now, so that makes me cautiously want to favor scenario #1. If you don’t have access to trading a futures contract, a 1/3 or 1/2 position on the short side of USDCAD is looking good right now.
Gun to my head, I’d rather be long XAU or some type of leveraged XAU ETF than trading the loonie.
Jake
this one is really a tough one
Do you have a trade on?
Updated D1 Chart
H4 entry 220P rally w/ reaction off midpoint of channel. Looking to add to position @ 20EMA
Here’s the break of 94 on the DXY
Concerns about overweight USD retail positions.
Jake
GBPJPY INTRADAY BREAKOUT MAY 6 2016
H1 Chart
Heavily impulsive selling off the 163 handle. Sellers maintain dominant position as the 20EMA was never threatened.
Breakout pattern (pink) formed in the 155 zone.
Entry was on a pullback to the upper bounds of the breakout formation.
Target was around 154 where the rally to 163 originated (heavy demand zone).
The trade was put on before NFP, so a bit of a wider stop was needed to account for volatility.
Typically, these types of trades can offer 3:1 reward to risk.
Here, 2.5 RR was booked. Roughly 55P risked for a gain of 140P.
Here’s the H4 Chart to illustrate what type of edge traders can get from this pattern.
The pattern is in pink. Essentially, you’re looking for the 20EMA to hold price down (dynamic resistance / yellow zone) alongside multiple touches @ a single horizontal price point (red targets).
This is indicative of a very specific type of order flow - bearish. Buyers are getting trapped and overwhelmed on each attempt to rally.
Any short-term longs are (more likely than not) placing stops beneath the horizontal zone. So, when sellers are able to overwhelm and trade toward that lower bound, buyers cover and add fuel to the breakout. The breakout occurs because of buyers puking out (stops tripped) and sellers hitting the bid. You’ll typically see a snapback after the breakout, b/c it’s then a rush to exits (for short traders) to get the lowest price possible to cover @. Think of liquidity vacuums.
Before price could trade below the bottom of the breakout formation (around 154.50) liquidity existed on the bid side. Liquidity DOES NOT EXIST YET on the ask side of the market beneath that price point. As sellers hit the bid w/ market orders and clear out those limit orders, moving price lower, new ask-side liquidity needs to build up. Longs are covering as well (stops tripped).
For the sellers, to book a profit they need to either place a market order to buy (hit the ask), or, get filled w/ a limit order @ the bid price. It then becomes a race to see who will get stuck w/ deep limits not getting filled vs. who is lifting the ask by placing market orders (if there is liquidity available). What that means- you can place your limit order 100P away to cover your short, but, if the market never trades down there then you’re out of luck. So, instead to at least book some type of profit you start to place market orders to buy (@ the ask price) where NO LIQUIDITY previously existed. That’s why you’ll sometimes see a quick breakout, followed by a quicker retracement. It’s all about who can get there first before the market moves to the next handle in search of liquidity. Understand these concepts, and you’ll be 10 steps ahead of 90% of other retail traders out there.
Jake
suweet!!!
ps: everything is clear but your TP
yes why?
Thanks, Kas!
Yea, sorry about that- I wish BP had “better” image-sharing infrastructure.
