These two trades are great examples of something I’ve been talking about for a while now- the notion that traders are in control of mostly all global markets. Seeing strong reactions at such easy-to-spot price points are key to signalling short term guys getting in and out, and not waiting to get caught on the wrong side of anything.
AUDJPY NY OVERNIGHT M5
One of the best entries I’ve ever had on this pair. Got in near the bottom of this leg and subsequent bottoming pattern.
Saw a nice exhaustive move into demand and got long (w/o any type of candlestick signal).
Entry is @ the level- this is key!
It looked like this trade had the opportunity to run, as I thought the Nikkei was going to breakout- but, it never happened. I was trailing my stop and got out for about 40P, with not even 10P risked.
Stop was trailed to just underneath that price shelf (green horizontal line). Pulled initial limit @ the red horizontal line, thinking we could breach, but sellers stepped in so hard + longs covering just took this thing down fast.
Can you see the same exact pattern forming shortly after my entry? (more confidence that we may see a larger breakout).
USDJPY M5 NY INTRADAY
Saw equities starting to bottom and JPY weakness growing in breadth. Took a shot @ a very small bottoming pattern. Stop was 8P- moved to break-even after clearing the 20EMA following my entry. Trailed stop up further (green horizontal line) to secure almost 2R:R. Minor resistance level actually held, so no need to try and wait around for the market to prove me right.
Take your signals from the market. Trade what you see, not what you want to see. There is a big, big difference. These two trades are examples of positions that “didn’t go according to plan”, but, I was able to clear off @ least 1R on each and have no problem moving on to the next trade. We all plan to maximize ROI for every position, but, sometimes the market just throws a curve-ball and you need to know when your pitch is just outside of the strike zone. Bottom line, stay on your toes and listen to your gut.
NZDUSD H4
Setting up a nice bottom for a shot @ 6850, ultimatelly looking for 6900 and potentially higher @ 7050.
Bears aiming for retest of 6750, then to trip stops around 6700.
Love watching all the talking heads chatter about how the consumer/retailer is in the best shape since The Crisis.
Coupled w/ the FED’s commentary about how inflation is too low (as if the consumer should WANT higher prices), and the fact that a mere 25BP hike in rates would likely crush this phony recovery, I’m not buying it at all!
Very basic price action analysis with three major signals.
8 year channel violated to the downside
After channel violation, rally and retest held
Bearish head and shoulders
The retailer isn’t it great shape, b/c it’s not reflected in the providers’ profits!
It’s like being a Football analyst and focusing on the health of the players of a certain team- constantly touting - “The team is healthy, the team is in great physical shape, the team has great determination to win and the tools to accomplish success”. But, when you look @ the record, they’ve only one 10% of their games!
USDJPY H4
Indecision currently, w/ slight bias to near-term upside. Medium term, trading @ midpoint of 600P range.
1.) Bounce off 108.
2.) Retest of 108 zone successful- confidence for buyers. Pink trendline established.
3.) Aggressive impulsive selling into trendline- hold for .5 session then breaks / w/ a retest.
4.) Bottoming pattern into demand @ 106.
5.) Rally to underside of pink trendline- first, second and third tests all hold.
6.) Bullish breakout formation carving out under key trendline.
A position isn’t warranted just yet, unless you want to get aggressive. There may be a better price to be had, but we’re sort of in no man’s land right now trading @ the midpoint of 112 and 106 (300P in between).
Four ways to trade this currency pair right now (that I’d be interested in).
1- Remain flat.
2- Take an aggressive long entry with a stop under the 20 EMA looking to profit on the bullish breakout.
3- Wait for a pullback to the 20EMA to get a better price to go long.
4- Take a short @ the top of the formation, w/ a stop above.
The DXY has been in rally mode, so I’d likely wait to get a chance to sell around 95. I’m still not feeling very risk-positive, although the S&P has been riding the bid-wave for a few months as well.
1/3 or 1/2 positions could be warranted if you feel that the current price action should lead to some decent volatility. Owning the JPY is just a bit expensive right now.
65% of FXCM retailers are long right now, if that type of information matters to you.
Jake
(Side note- got flat NZDUSD. Didn’t like the lack of buyers to end last week / start this week. May get a deeper price to get long again).
Purpose of this trade is to reduce exposure (as directly as possible) to event-risk-driven currencies (GBP - Brexit, USD - Fed Meetings). Idea is to take advantage of a potential lagging break-out on the NZDJPY.
NZDJPY M1
Monthly chart shows significance of horizontal price zone.
Lagging price action here- should see sellers step in due to good risk/reward.
Be looking to put on half a position now, and the rest this week if we get a counter-trend rally.
Given the current fundamental snapshot, I like selling risk-trends here.
Hey there Bard- Chris and I definitely share perspectives on how to read price action and he’s a very intelligent trader…
I’m a product of:
John Kurisko (“daytraderrockstar” price action)
John Grady (“NoBSDayTrading” order flow scalping futures via DOM)
Anna Coulling (VPA)
Sam Seiden (supply/demand trading)
Alexander Elder (price action)
Jason Stapleton / Akil (harmonics)
Richard Wykoff (day trading stocks)
Humphrey Neil (tape reading and market tactics)
In that specific order (to name a few).
Be around in the game long enough and you’ll see that the majority of “strategies” out there are just re-hashed tactics with new terminologies and different ways to spin (exactly what my approach is).
The one thing Capre and I agree on the most (never chatted w. the fellow but have seen his dead thread here back in the day) is MINDSET, above all else.
Updated NKY225 analysis (original post & analysis from APR3)
Range-bound price action is easy to spot - corrective channel within larger blue channel.
Bias is still neutral / favor to the downside.
15,600 zone is key. Bears need to threaten and breach.
Failure to rally above the previous support zone is confirmation that sellers are in control.
However, failure to breach the lows signal hesitation.
Bull markets don’t unwind in 3 weeks though. If this channel is breached, look for continued selling until the next real support zone around our level id’d in APR @ 14,346. This will take all the JPY crosses down with it.
I used to be a while ago but stopped b/c it got boring.
Considering punching out of here as well…
When I started this thread +/- 6 months ago, I was hopeful I’d get a solid amount of interaction but to-date, I’ve literally just been talking to myself. No value there.
As you can probably tell (b/c you’re one of a few people that actually post here) my thread quantity as been lower and lower over the last month or so. Will probably just give it another 30 days or so and if no one shows any interest or lets me know about any type of benefit from my trades (purpose of this forum) then I’m just going to ride off into the sunset.
The problem with your thread is it doesn’t have 10 indicators on the screen so you’re scaring these guys with such clean charts :46:
I hope you do continue. You are providing a nice lesson for newbies who should forget about indicators and should learn how to read price action and the order flow behind it.
Weekly chart for the GBPCHF looks like a promising reversal with a pinbar off of support which may offer some nice smaller time frame long potential trades.
EURJPY is looking good to trade some nice impulsive moves after a corrective pullback. The impulsivity of the bearish candles, larger in size compared to the bullish candles and more numerous in number as well as having closes closer to the lows, are a good indicator of the order flow being bearish to continue until the Bulls give us a sign for a likely reversal. Notice the bull candles and how weak in numbers they are as well as the size of these candles and how much more wick than the bear candles they have. Counter trend players are getting stomped after every corrective move. Going to look at this pair this coming week for some short trades.
