Ended up with a free trade yesterday:
Now, if you believed in the euro, this would be a [I]perfect[/I] example of getting it in good and not touching it. And I mean really not touching it, for probably on the scope of 6-12 months or more(!!) Even on a D1 chart this looks okay for a long term reversal with a series of wicks on the bottom and a decent retracement rejection in the making. The minimum 1 swing break would be at 132.2x with a more gusto break at 134.57. If you take 132 flat here as the target than the risk on this trade was about 15 pips (break of 128.49 on the above picture really but lets just round with spread) with a target of ~350 pips or 1:20 risk:reward with the extended target being 600 pips or 1:40. This is now 10% or 20% gain with a .5% risk to begin with, with NO stacked positions included. that said I [I]did[/I] get out of this position at 129.40 or so to create more “fuel” for future positions.
With such wondrous prospects, why did I get out? This is a very resource oriented approach. By getting out (and may I note, at a [I]very[/I] sub-par exit), I create more “risk-less” entries at a future date. Finding the EJ trade was a very luck-based opportunity. The window of entry was quite small, but I happened to be looking at the chart so I took it. With no long-term map for this trade, pure probability would say that there is an average chance (default chance) that this trade blows up and I get the 20:1 or 40:1 position. However, but getting out at ~80 pips, or 5:1, I’ve basically created 5 more entries for myself. If I lose the next 5 trades that I take in this size, I end up break even. So, IF my HTF analysis on EU is correct, then that means taking short positions on EU with a similar goal (of 20:1, 40:1 or more) has a [I]greater[/I] probability of coming to fruition, as opposed to the EJ map. This is directional swing trading.
As for upcoming scalps, I’m looking at EU long at 1.1250 with the exit at 1.1255. Small profit but these add up over time.