I’m a relatively new trader trying to put together the things I’ve been learning for the past couple months.
The main goal of this thread is to help me track my trade ideas; Since I trade using a relatively standard MTF analysis, it’s good to know where the small opportunities are relative to the big picture. As a swing trader I’ll try to update this twice or maybe three times a week as needed. My main focuses are on EU/UJ. Sometimes I’ll look to trade the main crosses, like E/J, G/U, OR G/J
I use two primary “categories” for my trades:
Retracement trading: The goal of these is always to ride them out as long as possible, with a rough projected aim of getting 1-3 winning (TP) trades a month. I get in on either the 15m or 30m (sometimes 1hr) with the stop clear of the swing and no TP. I’ll hold on to it for roughly 24x TF (6 hours on 15m, 12 hours on 30m, a day on 1 hr) and then if it looks clear I’ll set the stop to BE and it won’t be touched until much later. I hound my stop loss, not my take profit. I consider these in-trend trades. The projected accuracy is a 20-30% [I]non-losing[/I] rate. I plan on having a lot of small losses, and a lot of break even trades with a few winners to carry the team.
Scalp trading: Essentially the oppose of retracement trading. The goal of these is simple; Get it in and pray the drawdown isn’t atrocious. These have no SL with a tight TP. These are counter-trend trades, with a set time to exit. The accuracy target of these is 90%+
That’s it for now! I’ll edit this post as needed in the future.
Starting with EU overview. Big news today so anything could happen, but my general outlook on the higher time frame of weekly/monthly is short. In other words I’m looking to short and HOLD on any trade that isn’t taken out.
My action area is NOW, in the zone of 1.118x with the max of 1.131x. Given the news today (large bar expected) confirmation is simple; big bear bar. Breaking the zone bull side would negate this idea and I would look to short higher up. If news flops and the resulting PA is choppy, I’ll be looking for a simple 3 bar reversal, followed by another confirmation bar (bull, bear, bear[confirmation])
If a flop occurs, these are my relevant long opportunities where I’d be looking to either scalp in and out (in at 1.1137 out at 1.1148 and in at 1.1092 and out at 1.1115) or look to long and if the initial reaction is okay, move to BE and hold for a new high.
so, SHORT at current price 1.118x-1.1200 with stops at 1.1250. No TP.
Projected probability of LTF longs: low
I suspect price will chop until news, big move, small retrace, and end of week.
As a follow up:
whipsaw news which is interesting and not very common for NFP. Unexpectedly it left the long scalps in tact, one of which triggered and got out (below). I expected that in the event of a bear move, it would blow out the level and leave it untradeable, but since it instead grinded down, it level the zone in tact and thus tradeable.
Still looking to accumulate a bigger short position. Looking for anything good in the upper half in the news bar, anything from 1.1185 - 1.1242. However, trading 1.1180 with a stop at 1.1242 is a big too wide for R:R. Instead, if I take a position in the lower end, the stop will be a lot closer, clear of the candle pattern that is created.
Probability to close the gap is HIGH, so while I’m looking to short, it’ll have to wait; currently seeing 1.1153 minimum move, CP (current price) 1.1143 as of writing this.
[I]Long scalps in tact: 1.1092 looking for 1.1110
Shorts in tact: 1.1183 looking for ??[/I]
Opps! I never set a safe target on my short call: it would have been 10 pips on this one, so short at 1.1183 looking for 1.1173 or 1.1170. It was almost going to be a dicey call because the short target was triggered on some brokers and not others. The high (1.1173) was hit on ATC for example, but not on Oanda. Nevertheless, there was a second opportunity. I won’t count this short because I never gave a target and doing so post-trade is not to be trusted. The EU short has been busted at 1.117x, so net 0 on that one.
no pendings scalps, but i’ll take this tiny positions on EJ because the bars forming looking promising. On a standard account, I would consider .5% risk to be the max. Set to BE after it breaks the 100
Now, if you believed in the euro, this would be a perfect example of getting it in good and not touching it. And I mean really not touching it, for probably on the scope of 6-12 months or more(!!) Even on a D1 chart this looks okay for a long term reversal with a series of wicks on the bottom and a decent retracement rejection in the making. The minimum 1 swing break would be at 132.2x with a more gusto break at 134.57. If you take 132 flat here as the target than the risk on this trade was about 15 pips (break of 128.49 on the above picture really but lets just round with spread) with a target of ~350 pips or 1:20 risk:reward with the extended target being 600 pips or 1:40. This is now 10% or 20% gain with a .5% risk to begin with, with NO stacked positions included. that said I did get out of this position at 129.40 or so to create more “fuel” for future positions.
With such wondrous prospects, why did I get out? This is a very resource oriented approach. By getting out (and may I note, at a very sub-par exit), I create more “risk-less” entries at a future date. Finding the EJ trade was a very luck-based opportunity. The window of entry was quite small, but I happened to be looking at the chart so I took it. With no long-term map for this trade, pure probability would say that there is an average chance (default chance) that this trade blows up and I get the 20:1 or 40:1 position. However, but getting out at ~80 pips, or 5:1, I’ve basically created 5 more entries for myself. If I lose the next 5 trades that I take in this size, I end up break even. So, IF my HTF analysis on EU is correct, then that means taking short positions on EU with a similar goal (of 20:1, 40:1 or more) has a greater probability of coming to fruition, as opposed to the EJ map. This is directional swing trading.
As for upcoming scalps, I’m looking at EU long at 1.1250 with the exit at 1.1255. Small profit but these add up over time.
Bit of a tricky move to get into if I wanted to be super careful with it, but with a very easy target, it’s a very touch based game to know if the trade is going to fall apart.
Nothing on the radar for today. Yens continuing to hammer into a free fall zone that doesn’t see supply areas until 110. The easiest map would be to continue to fall another 200 pips or so, with a small rebound developing at the end of the month and then a retracement.
Retail surprisingly (or is it unsurprisingly…?) still net long on the pair which blows my mind really. Anyone wanting to be bull dollar will need to wait for China troubles to calm and US hikes to be in play. Very tricky time to be trading technicals.
UJ dipped into the support area a little bit but not quite all the way. A small reversal pattern in the making but I would be cautious. Likely play from my view would be to:
Move up a little bit to trick buyers into Monday/Tuesday
Make one last push down into the supply area (1.102x-1.105x)
Exhaust the move and make new highs into 115.x-116.x
This would coordinate and play out in the EU as well to push a new high into 1.142x. The current bottom is rolling a little bit, but the tails on most time frames (15m/30m/1hr) seem to indicate weak sellers.
EU Overview
EU Tracking 1.1376 longs and 1.1159 shorts. A break of either of these levels NOT created through a news level would make an easy scalp for 5 pips almost for sure. Immediate levels to track are current low 1.121x and 1.127x.
1.1243 (only 10 pips away) is the gimme short retrace level at the moment, followed by 1.122x-1.123x for the zone.
Good spot for a long here. If it busts the current retracement low it will likely bust the trend move low as well, so might as well pick the shorter one and reduce risk. Target for this is likely the 1.20%, of roughly 1:3 risk/reward. No great opportunities still, so just pick out a few small ones and wait for the news drivers to come into play.
Up move is still in play! A common mistake is the following:
Analyze and assume up move
Make entry in accordance
Watch as stop loss is taken out HARD and price makes a strong day in the opposite direction
Reverse trade and go short
Lose again
This isn’t some “the MMs are out to get you” thing. IMO it is simply picking the wrong level in the perspective of the HTF. Take multiple shots if there’s a reason to. If the overall picture is still sound, then the trade direction is sound
More bearish action, but still looking to get in a small long before riding the short wave. This has been (the series of losses) a lesson in how trading with the trend works. It’s the difference between sitting on the side lines versus taking longs in a spot where one ultimately expects a bearish move. Worth the practice and screen time in my opinion.
Monthly EU looking very bearish… and therefore expecting a bullish move (surprise…) to start the month. Reasoning? The cleanest way to have a bearish march is to create the high before creating a bear wave. It’s expected to have some sort of upper wick.
scalps: 1.1065 for 5 pips long, 1.0858 for 5 pips short
Current price is 1.0883, 1.09 is very likely as well
Real life stuff taking priority over trading. It’s one of the common issues in trading: it’s hard to justify spending extensive periods of time dedicated to trading without showing a profit for it and it’s hard to turn a good profit if you don’t spend a lot of time to it. The time and research required to find an edge in trading can be done anytime, but actually putting the edge into practice, aka real trading, is much more strict. Just because you have time to research does not equate to having time to trade. Additionally, trading or screen time is a real thing that can only be learned with time and with much spare time as I have (not a lot) it’s hard to justify staring at a screen absorbing details in micro frames, speed, and flow. I’ll be looking to move my strategy to a higher frame to continue trading, and throw out the scalp ideas every now and then when I have time.
As far as actual chart moves, the news push on EU is still in effect with lackluster moves since.
New year, I’ll try to put something up every day for the next 2 months or so and we’ll see how it goes.
Going to be looking to take quick pick ups in lots of areas, starting with these little retracements. If the R:R is 1 or better, and if the perceived probability is 50% or better, why not? Evidence trumps gut. Going short here looking for the 30% minimum. The slightly safer wait would be to short on the break of the current bar after the hour is up.
Edit: Bar broke, lost. 1.0495 is still the short target, but I won’t get in unless I get another setup, possibly at 1.0590
A bit early on the first take, but the retrace move did happen and complete. The current area now is slightly tricky. The bullish strength generally needs a bit more of a pullback to have enough strength to push through the new high, but price is slowly chopping through the SR area. Although now technically in a bull trend, this is a fantastic RR for shorts. The risk is very limited, and the downside is quite good.
Bull: if >1.0616, 1.0652 seems very likely.
Bear: If this is the turn, 1.0570 is the minimum, 1.0532 is a close target, and will probably drop until later morning to close out the week. Weekly candles commonly have wicks, and this is a good opportunity for it.
Chart peeked high before peaking (hehe) and making the bear move for the week candle like I anticipated. My was a bit too close and got eaten but oh well. I’m not too bummed as I placed it there for a specific reason that didn’t work out for me this time. I’m down about 12 bucks on the year (PANIC MODE) but made out a bit better than I thought I should have considering the number of times trades DIDN’T go in my favor. Hoping to snag a win or two and we should be back on track.
Sorry for getting back to you late! I use lots of indicators. They’re mostly custom built or adjusted to something I’m a bit more comfortable however. For example, while I do use a retracement grid, you’ll notice that I’m using 30, 50, and 80% retracements rather than the typical numbers suggested by fib enthusiasts (remember that 50% isn’t actually a fibonacci number). This is because I care much more about the region that price is in, rather than hyper specific number.
I consider myself more of a wave trader than a trend trader, so no I don’t really use trendlines.
Finally, as mentioned before, the trading tools I use are mostly from the indicators I have created/studied. Tbh I don’t really use volume or CCI when I consider trade planning, it’s just something I kind of monitor as I’m aware of how they work, at least at a basic level.
