I always find the results on demo accounts are better than “real” accounts for some reason, so I am happy to pay a small amount for more realism, maybe it’s the spread or the charges?
So at last a good day, 4 wins and 1 break even although it was a small loss for that one, about $5
The “noob” account had 5 wins from 6 at 1/1.5
No late trades today, everything kicked off immediately, so fast I missed a couple of winning trades but never mind.
Here’s the trades;
Old faithful AUDUSD was the first to win, nice and easy.
GBPUSD was also a straightforward trade, going with the trend.
My win rate on EURUSD is poor but I liked the look of it today and sure enough another nice easy win.
USDCAD took its time with some pullbacks but again fairly straightforward win.
EURGBP was quite volatile and as you can see it very nearly hit my TP and then pulled back, I moved my SL to just inside the range above the SMA but it still hit this so I lost about $5 (rather than the full $25) so was Ok with that. With hindsight my SL is a bit too big and should have been around 2 pips smaller.
At last a good day, profit for the day is around 1.7% - the system works when the market plays nicely.
Today has put me back into profit for the month of May, hopefully a corner has been turned.
I see so many people saying this, and it’s worrying for me.
I’m still on simulation account only, my results look kind of ok, just about, but I worry they might not be on a real account.
But prop firm evaluations that you pay for are only demo accounts anyway, aren’t they?
Yes but they seem to use more “realistic” spreads and also they include charges which I don’t think demo accounts do.
The problem with prop firms is their spreads vary quite a bit, so pick one with smaller spreads if you can, 5%ers seem good.
You won’t know for sure until you actually try it out and at least demo is good practise, you will make fewer mistakes when you “go live” that way.
I see. Ok, thanks, that makes sense.
Thanks, and good luck for the rest of this month.
I made a profit yesterday so you know the story.
I am seriously considering not trading the day after a winning day.
Today I had 1 win from 4 trades so gave back most of the profit from yesterday.
The noob strategy was best today, 4 wins from 5 including a break even all at 1/1.5
Late entries only had two trades, both lost.
Here’s the trades for the 5%ers account;
AUDUSD was an easy win for the Noob account, but for the 5%ers I didn’t want to enter it until I got confirmation it would break through the SMAs as it had been bouncing off those all morning.
The mistake here was using the same SL I always do (4 or 5 pips) but it needed to be bigger as it had already moved a few pips - having said that this is still ranging and not sure if it will move enough to get a profit in any case. In hindisight it would have lost anyway as eventually it would have hit any SL I set without ever hitting the TP.
Moral of the story, don’t trade against the trend.
Nice quick win for EURUSD, with the trend.
EURGBP just reversed on me, did everything right this time.
Now I was confident for GBPUSD as it was long, with the trend (I have a good win rate on these) but in hindsight I was too late entering, the candle was very big and my SL was too large, it just didn’t move enough to quite reach TP.
Now I have a list of all my trades for this and based on that data my SL needs to be around 10-12 pips but this one was 15 pips, if I’d used the historic SL level then it would have won, so need to bear this in mind.
Overall down about 1% on the day.
You’d (surely?) need overwhelming statistical evidence of that being advantageous, to think of “trying part-time, with previous outcomes influencing future decisions”?!
If you hadn’t used the word “seriously” in there, I’d have imagined you were joking!
Either what you’re doing has an edge, or it doesn’t.
If it does, you need to exercise that edge as frequently as possible.
If it doesn’t, you need to do something else instead.
Apologies for the “lecturing” tone, but this is basic, David, surely?!
Yes, it just seems recently that this is a recurring theme.
I will keep trading daily for now until I get more data.
So just analysed my recent trades and put some helpful hints together;
AUDUSD
SL is 4-8 pips, set this to the MIDDLE of the range
Only go WITH the trend if it isn’t a clear trend DON’T trade this
EURGBP
SL is 4-10 pips around the Mid/Far side of the range
If the range is small (< 10 pips) set the SL to the FAR side
Can go against the trend but avoid trading if the trend is unclear
EURUSD
SL is 5-12 pips around the MIDDLE of the range
Can take trades against the trend but avoid trading if the trend is unclear
GBPJPY
Only take SHORT Trades WITH the trend
SL around 12 pips, MIDDLE of the range
GBPUSD
SL around MIDDLE of the range, 6-12 pips
USDCAD
Only go WITH the trend
SL is MIDDLE
USDJPY
SL MIDDLE/FAR side of the range
Only go WITH the trend
I believe you trade breakouts, right? There might be something in that, how often does a forex market breakout 2 days in a row?
I’m always skeptical about what to do when an index reaches an all time high.
That’s a big question, and I think you’re asking it because the answer’s going to be something along the lines of “not all that often”?
But it’s also a straightforward, factual question, isn’t it? Meaning: “there must actually be hard information (somewhere) that answers this factually and objectively” (and I wouldn’t mind knowing what/where).
It’s a good point, the market seems to be good one day and bad the next, from my POV, but as others have said I’ve only been trading a few months so I really need more data.
I only really need a 10pip or so breakout as I am scalping though.
Anyway, my notes above should help and I just need more experience I think.
Although the noob strategy did very nicely today.
Shouldn’t have traded today, just nothing moving, I need to formally define what I mean by “no clear trend” (see above) and based on today I may use the fact that the SMAs are all inside the range and going more or less sideways, that would have avoided all the losses today.
Three trades, two lost and just the one win.
The noob account had three losses from four trades.
The late breakout account had 3 wins from 4 at 1/1.5
Maybe I don’t include the wicks in the range, I’ve always done that before but it might mean I spot a breakout earlier.
Also maybe only take late trades if the SMAs are within the range? I will start recording this information in my spreadsheet.
Anyway, here’s the trades;
USDJPY, now I was cautious here but as it seemed to break through the SMAs fairly easily and there was a break and retest of the top edge of the range I took this and it won without any dramas other than a couple of pullbacks which is quite normal for this pair.
AUDUSD, SL was a pip too small but I have placed it where I usually would, you also see if I’d entered sooner this would eventually have won, just one of those things I suppose.
EURUSD, yeah, entered as it hit the low of the session for London, superb timing.
Solutions/Ideas;
Ignore wicks when drawing the ranges
To define stop loss, use the size of the range + 2 pips
Work out SL as soon as the opening 5 minutes has elapsed
Put the SL into the calculator ready to save time
If the SMAs are within the range and there’s no clear direction, wait for late entries after 8:30
If I had taken these later due to the SMAs being inside the range then I would have had 1 winner from 1 trade as the others don’t have a late breakout, maybe that’s my answer.
It’s uncanny how often that happens. I genuinely had a thought that I should do the exact opposite of what I want to do because I would buy the high and sell the low so often.
The answer for me was to have patience and wait for the pullback to enter. Even if it’s just wait for price to go above the previous candle
It’s ok if you don’t have too much “FOMO”!
Yeah I have tried waiting for a retest but it doesn’t seem to make much difference. In fact that EURUSD losing trade had a retest just before I took it.
Just one of those days today, as I say I may not trade in future if the SMAs are unclear, it does seem when there’s no obvious trend my win rate is lower.
That’s a cool idea. Was thinking to try the same, but one is more strict with SLs.
The main difference with the noob strategy is I simply take the trade regardless as soon as it breaks out - so I don’t overthink it.
Strange day today, 2 wins from 3 trades for the usual strategy.
Noob strategy had 1 win from 6.
Late entries, 3 wins from 5 at 1/1.5
Trades below;
AUDUSD played me nicely, the noob entry lost as that looked to be going long and then reversed, now I felt there was a good chance of this happening as it’s a downtrend although not a very clear one.
And as you see the bearish move was quite short-lived - I took this as the move to the downside was so strong and overall there was a downtrend but this ended up reversing again and I did win it with the late entry strategy.
I had set a bigger SL than normal here as I could see the price action kept bouncing off the SMAs and I wanted to cover that if it happened again, which it did before reversing.
Now EURGBP and for once news helped me! It’s a nice trade, clear downtrend, there was kind of a break and retest so I got in and as the range was small I covered it all with the SL.
Now I actually got a win at 1/1.5 here as that is the default setting on the calculator I use, I tend to manually close once the profit hits $25 (1/1) but there’s a bit extra available I try to get an extra dollar or so if I can and this one gave me a full extra $12.50!
USDCAD, this one kept hitting a resistance level just below my TP so I thought about closing early but then news came, this again was a tiny fraction below TP so I closed early for a $22 win as I know often price reverses quite quickly after news as was the case here. That wick a few minutes later would probably have hit the TP in any case, this reversed into being bearish just after this so I am OK with the profit here.
Again it was a clear uptrend so did right to take this and the SL could have been a pip or two smaller maybe.
Here’s the trades I didn’t take;
I didn’t take EURGBP as I didn’t really like that price action earlier despite the trend being clear - by the time I got confirmation that the breakout was on I felt it was a bit too late so I left this one, would have likely been a win once the news hit.
EURUSD would probably have been a loss if I’d taken that early move as the pullback would have taken out my SL if I’d set it to the middle of the range and then the move was due to news so I wouldn’t have taken that.
The GBPUSD move was too quick and I was right not to touch that and then it looked like a bit of a crazy day so left well alone. The late entry won this one.
USDJPY didn’t look to have a clear trend, the SMA is within the range and going pretty sideways, this does win as a late entry though.
Same for GBPJPY, another late entry win however.
So not a bad day overall, see if I can end the week with a positive couple of days, today has put me back into profit for the week by around 0.5%
TWO PROFITABLE DAYS IN A ROW!
Thank god, I have finally got that monkey off my back!
So yeah, 3 wins from 5 with two break even trades.
My gut feeling initially was to not trade today as the price action and trends were very sideways and there didn’t look to be much volume but it woke up a bit after the first few minutes so I did take these trades.
Noob strategy got 3 wins from 6 at 1/1.5
Late entries, only 1 trade and that lost.
Here’s the trades;
GBPUSD looks sideways but then woke up a bit with some larger candles so I took this quite early and it won without any dramas.
EURUSD was similar, no dramas.
AUDUSD, nothing clever just the market playing nice for a change!
Now USDCAD I took early for a small profit but called it a break even, it just didn’t want to break that level so happy enough with this.
Similar with USDJPY I took a small profit and called it a break even.
Will put up the weekly total soon.